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New B.1.1.529 more deadly

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SoutheastMIViewer
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New B.1.1.529 more deadly

Post by SoutheastMIViewer » Thu Nov 25, 2021 6:23 pm

I am just going to leave this here. :D

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-59418127


If you don’t have a mask covering your exhaust pipe on the car, you are not trying to stop global warming by preventing the harmful emission particles from spraying out!

bmw
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Re: New B.1.1.529 more deadly

Post by bmw » Thu Nov 25, 2021 6:50 pm

Where did you see "more deadly?"

Per the article:
This variant seems to give quirky results (known as an S-gene dropout) in the standard tests and that can be used to track the variant without doing a full genetic analysis.

That suggests 90% of cases in Gauteng may already be this variant and it "may already be present in most provinces" in South Africa.

But this does not tell us whether it spreads faster than Delta, is any more severe or to what extent it can evade the immune protection that comes from vaccination.



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Re: New B.1.1.529 more deadly

Post by SoutheastMIViewer » Thu Nov 25, 2021 10:03 pm

bmw wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 6:50 pm
Where did you see "more deadly?"

Per the article:
This variant seems to give quirky results (known as an S-gene dropout) in the standard tests and that can be used to track the variant without doing a full genetic analysis.

That suggests 90% of cases in Gauteng may already be this variant and it "may already be present in most provinces" in South Africa.

But this does not tell us whether it spreads faster than Delta, is any more severe or to what extent it can evade the immune protection that comes from vaccination.
The latest is the most heavily mutated version discovered so far - and it has such a long list of mutations that it was described by one scientist as "horrific", while another told me it was the worst variant they'd seen.


If you don’t have a mask covering your exhaust pipe on the car, you are not trying to stop global warming by preventing the harmful emission particles from spraying out!

bmw
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Re: New B.1.1.529 more deadly

Post by bmw » Thu Nov 25, 2021 10:29 pm

SoutheastMIViewer wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 10:03 pm
The latest is the most heavily mutated version discovered so far - and it has such a long list of mutations that it was described by one scientist as "horrific", while another told me it was the worst variant they'd seen.
From the article:
"A lot of mutation doesn't automatically mean: bad. It is important to know what those mutations are actually doing."

You really need to go re-read that article in its entirety. The author makes crystal clear that scientists don't know if the virus is any more deadly or not. It COULD be but right now we simply don't know.



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Re: New B.1.1.529 more deadly

Post by Rate This » Thu Nov 25, 2021 10:54 pm

bmw wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 10:29 pm
SoutheastMIViewer wrote:
Thu Nov 25, 2021 10:03 pm
The latest is the most heavily mutated version discovered so far - and it has such a long list of mutations that it was described by one scientist as "horrific", while another told me it was the worst variant they'd seen.
From the article:
"A lot of mutation doesn't automatically mean: bad. It is important to know what those mutations are actually doing."

You really need to go re-read that article in its entirety. The author makes crystal clear that scientists don't know if the virus is any more deadly or not. It COULD be but right now we simply don't know.
From a philosophical perspective I have been pondering whether we are being arrogant thinking we can completely defeat this virus… seems a little presumptuous to me.



bmw
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Re: New B.1.1.529 more deadly

Post by bmw » Thu Nov 25, 2021 11:38 pm

I asked that question in here over a year ago. https://mibuzzboard.com/phpBB3/viewtopi ... 24&t=52649

My position hasn't changed since then insofar as I still believe the only way this ends (and I do still believe that day will come) is when we reach herd immunity. The only difference is that back then I had much higher hopes for the vaccine; not only did I say that herd immunity would come from a combination of natural immunity and vaccinated immunity, but I also said that it was preferable that it come from as much vaccinated immunity as possible (so see, I'm not an anti-vaxxer - my opinions only changed after data started pouring in on the vaccine's effectiveness). Unfortunately, that hasn't exactly panned out, and we're stuck waiting for 70-80% of the entire world population to actually get sick with Covid before herd immunity even has a chance of happening.



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Re: New B.1.1.529 more deadly

Post by TC Talks » Fri Nov 26, 2021 7:14 am

Let's send BMW to South Africa as our sacrificial lamb. We can get good data on how well politically motivated denial fights the new strain.


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bmw
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Re: New B.1.1.529 more deadly

Post by bmw » Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:10 am

So fear mongering and jumping to conclusions is the response to this? The article the OP posted said nothing of the sort that the virus is "more deadly." What the article DID say is that we DON'T KNOW YET if it is any more severe of a strain or not. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't, we simply don't know. We'll probably find out soon, and it is certainly cause for concern, but the fact that I'm not jumping to conclusions like others (and I do note that a lot of the mainstream news headlines this morning are engaging in the typical fear mongering as well) doesn't make me "in denial."

You're the one in denial with your belief that the vaccine is a magic potion. 3 suspected cases of the new strain have showed up in Israel. All 3 individuals who had it were vaccinated. https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus- ... 95742e4ab1

I seem to recall ringing the alarm bells several months back that vaccinating too many people could lead to more mutations of the virus - and I was almost universally deemed as being nuts for making such claims (even though I cited a study on this very topic that was conducted in 2015). I know much of Africa is not yet vaccinated (like, less than 10 percent), but it is fascinating to know that the 1 person who brought it from there to Israel was vaccinated. Scientists believe this strain probably originated in a single person. I'd be real curious to know if that single person was vaccinated or not.



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Re: New B.1.1.529 more deadly

Post by Matt » Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:47 am

bmw wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:10 am
So fear mongering and jumping to conclusions is the response to this? The article the OP posted said nothing of the sort that the virus is "more deadly." What the article DID say is that we DON'T KNOW YET if it is any more severe of a strain or not. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't, we simply don't know. We'll probably find out soon, and it is certainly cause for concern, but the fact that I'm not jumping to conclusions like others (and I do note that a lot of the mainstream news headlines this morning are engaging in the typical fear mongering as well) doesn't make me "in denial."

You're the one in denial with your belief that the vaccine is a magic potion. 3 suspected cases of the new strain have showed up in Israel. All 3 individuals who had it were vaccinated. https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus- ... 95742e4ab1

I seem to recall ringing the alarm bells several months back that vaccinating too many people could lead to more mutations of the virus - and I was almost universally deemed as being nuts for making such claims (even though I cited a study on this very topic that was conducted in 2015). I know much of Africa is not yet vaccinated (like, less than 10 percent), but it is fascinating to know that the 1 person who brought it from there to Israel was vaccinated. Scientists believe this strain probably originated in a single person. I'd be real curious to know if that single person was vaccinated or not.
The issue continues to be that NOT ENOUGH people are vaccinated.


What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

bmw
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Re: New B.1.1.529 more deadly

Post by bmw » Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:30 am

Matt wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:47 am
The issue continues to be that NOT ENOUGH people are vaccinated.
Keep ignoring facts. You're just going to ignore the fact that of the 3 people in Israel who have it, including the traveler who brought it in, all 3 are vaccinated? How did not enough people being vaccinated cause this to happen? Please explain that logic to me.



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Re: New B.1.1.529 more deadly

Post by Matt » Fri Nov 26, 2021 11:38 am

bmw wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 10:30 am
Matt wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:47 am
The issue continues to be that NOT ENOUGH people are vaccinated.
Keep ignoring facts. You're just going to ignore the fact that of the 3 people in Israel who have it, including the traveler who brought it in, all 3 are vaccinated? How did not enough people being vaccinated cause this to happen? Please explain that logic to me.
The thing continues to circulate because people are too dumb or too selfish to get vaccinated. That is a clear fact. I'll trust the vast majority of doctors over someone that once predicted 200 deaths (yes, I know that you've explained that statement).


What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

bmw
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Re: New B.1.1.529 more deadly

Post by bmw » Fri Nov 26, 2021 12:55 pm

No no no, you said the vaccine keeps people out of the hospitals and from dying. You have refused time and again to address the fact that cases are on the rise 25% faster in the highest vaccinated states than they are in the lowest vaccinated states.

If you want to discredit everything I'm saying because of a past wrong prediction in the very early days of this virus, then fine. But you can't ignore the data, which speaks for itself.



bmw
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Re: New B.1.1.529 more deadly

Post by bmw » Fri Nov 26, 2021 1:28 pm

What the mutations mean is currently theoretical and based on experience of past mutations of SARS-CoV-2 rather than lab tests. Wendy Barclay at Imperial College London says “we don’t really know” if it will reduce the effectiveness of vaccines. Nonetheless, she adds that, in theory, the number of changes across the antigenic sites on the variant’s spike means the effectiveness of antibodies produced by covid-19 vaccines would be compromised.

Mutations on a part of the virus known as the furin cleavage site are similar to those seen in the alpha and delta variants, which could help the variant spread more easily. Barclay says “it’s very biologically plausible” that B.1.1.529 has greater transmissibility than delta.

The mutations also mean that the new variant is likely to be more resistant to antibody treatments such as those developed by Regeneron, which have been shown to save lives. “That is really a cause for concern,” says Barclay. One small bright spot is that, to date, there are no signs that the variant causes more severe disease.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/22 ... z7DLkrtDRV



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Re: New B.1.1.529 more deadly

Post by Rate This » Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:19 pm

We can start calling this one by name… Omicron. The US and EU have both issued travel bans to non-citizens from South Africa and 7 other countries it looks like. The EU one might be slightly different but that’s the US’s stance right now. This will never end.



bmw
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Re: New B.1.1.529 more deadly

Post by bmw » Fri Nov 26, 2021 2:38 pm

We simply don't know enough about it yet, other than very early indications are that it is quite transmissible. We don't know what degree of protection the vaccine will offer. We don't know what degree of protection natural immunity from past variants will offer. We don't know how deadly it is. The ideal situation is that it is highly transmissible but less deadly. That would allow a less deadly version of Covid to become the dominant strain. I'm not getting my hopes up that this will be case, but I do remember early on suggesting that the best-case scenario would be that it mutates itself to a dominant but less deadly version.

To ABC News' credit, I heard their top-of-the-hour radio news today and they stressed that people should neither buy into fear mongering nor pretend like it is nothing as we simply don't have enough information yet.

I will say at least this much - it appears that just like back in March of 2020, the cat is already out of the bag on this one. If it is destined to be highly transmissible, it is ALREADY too late to stop it from taking over the globe.



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