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Now no correlation between a state's vaccination rate and its daily Covid case rate

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bmw
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Now no correlation between a state's vaccination rate and its daily Covid case rate

Post by bmw » Sun Nov 14, 2021 9:55 am

Remember this graph? I posted this back on July 31. The source of this data is directly from the New York Times Hot Spot data table.

July 31, 2020: Correlation between vaccination rates and daily case rates:
Image

I acknowledged that there was a definite correlation in the data - that there was a clear inverse relation between daily Covid case rates and vaccination rates. I did note, however, that "It will be interesting to see if this data holds in the coming months, particularly in the northeast. This will answer whether there is actual causation in the data, or if it is just that - correlation (because there are other correlations too, like region of the country).

TC Talks said "Your graph pretty much proved my point. The uneducated unvaccinated idiots have the highest covid rates"

MW said "That's a terrific bar graph, bmw. Thanks for taking the time to create and post that chart!"

So I thought now would be a good time to re-visit this and look at the data for the first 2 weeks of November. The graph is fascinating to say the least:

November 14, 2020: Correlation between vaccination rates and daily case rates:
Image

Visually, there appeared to be no correlation whatsoever, so I added a line of best fit (trend line). There is no statistically significant correlation here (and if fact if you look closely, you'll note that the trend line actually marginally goes UP from an average of 31 daily cases in the lowest vaccinated states to 32 daily cases in the highest vaccinated states).

So despite a 31 percentage-point difference between the lowest vaccination rates (41 at the low end, 72 at the high end), the daily case rates show no correlation whatsoever to those vaccination rates. Alternatively stated, states that have more than twice as many unvaccinated people (59% vs 28%) have no higher daily rate of Covid.



Matt
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Re: Now no correlation between a state's vaccination rate and its daily Covid case rate

Post by Matt » Sun Nov 14, 2021 10:18 am

I've heard from a medical professional that 97% of hospitalizations in the GLB region are unvaccinated. Keep playing your stupid games and collecting those stupid prizes.


What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

bmw
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Re: Now no correlation between a state's vaccination rate and its daily Covid case rate

Post by bmw » Sun Nov 14, 2021 10:24 am

Try to keep on topic here. I'm talking about DAILY CASE RATE. Not hospitalizations. The vaccine does not appear to be slowing the spread of Covid, AT ALL.

That said, give me some time and I'll put together a hospitalization chart.



Matt
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Re: Now no correlation between a state's vaccination rate and its daily Covid case rate

Post by Matt » Sun Nov 14, 2021 10:31 am

bmw wrote:
Sun Nov 14, 2021 10:24 am
Try to keep on topic here. I'm talking about DAILY CASE RATE. Not hospitalizations. The vaccine does not appear to be slowing the spread of Covid, AT ALL.
That's not even the argument. The desire is to reduce hospitalizations and death and to learn to live with this new endemic sickness. I realize you have an innate desire to be right, but it is ok to be wrong once in awhile.


What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

bmw
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Re: Now no correlation between a state's vaccination rate and its daily Covid case rate

Post by bmw » Sun Nov 14, 2021 11:10 am

Matt wrote:
Sun Nov 14, 2021 10:31 am
That's not even the argument.
That's your opinion. My opinion is that stopping the spread is the top priority.

ANYWAYS....here's your hospitalization chart.

Image

So yes - clearly the vaccine is reducing the hospitalization rate. Though I would note that hospitalizations do lag a bit behind daily case rates as this data isn't for new hospitalizations, but rather is for total number of people hospitalized on any given day, some of which have been there for a while, so this needs to be re-visited next month to see if the correlation remains as strong.

Looks like 21 people per 100k at 42% vaccinated vs. 12 people per 100k at 72% vaccinated. That amounts to a 43% reduction in hospitalization rate by bumping up the vaccination rate from 42% to 72%. So let's apply some basic math to this data: This would seem to suggest that of those 21 hospitalized people in the low vaccinated states, 9 of them came from 30% of the population that wasn't vaccinated. Extrapolated out to account for the other 28% that isn't vaccinated, another 8 came from the other 28% of the unvaccinated population, meaning 4 of them came from the vaccinated portion.

To summarize:
17 hospitalizations from the 58% of the unvaccinated population
4 hospitalizations from the 42% of the vaccinated population

Proportionally, that amounts to about a 3.08x reduction in hospitalization rate if you get vaccinated. While significant, this number is 10x smaller than your suggested 97:3 ratio.



km1125
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Re: Now no correlation between a state's vaccination rate and its daily Covid case rate

Post by km1125 » Sun Nov 14, 2021 1:10 pm

bmw wrote:
Sun Nov 14, 2021 11:10 am
....
Proportionally, that amounts to about a 3.08x reduction in hospitalization rate if you get vaccinated. While significant, this number is 10x smaller than your suggested 97:3 ratio.
Somebody at Beaumont has been on the news locally saying between 30 and 35% of their hospitalized folks are vaccinated, so that's around a 2:1 ratio. Not much different than your conclusion, but I'd say they are both close and muuuuuch different than that 97:3 ratio that continues to be pushed.



bmw
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Re: Now no correlation between a state's vaccination rate and its daily Covid case rate

Post by bmw » Sun Nov 14, 2021 1:56 pm

That would only be a 2:1 ratio if exactly 50% of the population was vaccinated. Taking the average Michigan vaccination rate of 54%, the ratio works out to 2.45:1.



bmw
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Re: Now no correlation between a state's vaccination rate and its daily Covid case rate

Post by bmw » Sun Nov 14, 2021 2:04 pm

Another observation looking at those 2 graphs - the vaccination rate in the past 3 and a half months has gone up a measly 6 percentage points or so. And that is despite numerous mandates and PSAs (propaganda) out the a$$. The government's stiff-arm and propaganda techniques don't appear to be accomplishing anything.



Matt
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Re: Now no correlation between a state's vaccination rate and its daily Covid case rate

Post by Matt » Sun Nov 14, 2021 2:11 pm

bmw wrote:
Sun Nov 14, 2021 2:04 pm
Another observation looking at those 2 graphs - the vaccination rate in the past 3 and a half months has gone up a measly 6 percentage points or so. And that is despite numerous mandates and PSAs (propaganda) out the a$$. The government's stiff-arm and propaganda techniques don't appear to be accomplishing anything.
The anti-vax propaganda is winning out.


What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

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FakeAndyStuart
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Re: Now no correlation between a state's vaccination rate and its daily Covid case rate

Post by FakeAndyStuart » Sun Nov 14, 2021 4:53 pm

The flu shot doesn't prevent the flu. But it does lower the symptoms, the hospitalization, the severity and the death rate.

<<drops mic, washed hands and puts mask back on>>



bmw
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Re: Now no correlation between a state's vaccination rate and its daily Covid case rate

Post by bmw » Sun Nov 14, 2021 4:57 pm

Matt wrote:
Sun Nov 14, 2021 2:11 pm
The anti-vax propaganda is winning out.
Perhaps the pro-vaccine propaganda would win out if it was honest instead of deceptive, sensationalized, and iron-fisted. I will concede that there's a ton of misinformation out there on the anti-vaccination side of this argument, but the pro-vaccination side is anything but honest in making its case. And TBH, there's a higher burden of honesty on the pro-vax side. The argument to get vaccinated should stand on its own merits. Why exaggerate literally everything?
FakeAndyStuart wrote:
Sun Nov 14, 2021 4:53 pm
The flu shot doesn't prevent the flu. But it does lower the symptoms, the hospitalization, the severity and the death rate.
So do zinc lozenges.

My whole point with this entire post is that the same people who were hailing my first graph as accurately depicting their position on this issue are either nowhere to be found or are changing the subject when the exact same graph suddenly looks quite different.



bmw
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Re: Now no correlation between a state's vaccination rate and its daily Covid case rate

Post by bmw » Fri Dec 03, 2021 9:55 am

Here's the latest data as of today. The more people in your state are vaccinated, the more Covid your state has, on average. The 2 trend lines are nearly parallel with each other now, both going in the same direction. The highest vaccinated states, on average, now have 56% more Covid going around than do the lowest vaccinated states. Can we admit that the original vaccine shots did nothing more than delay the inevitable, and to the extent the booster may work against the new variant, that it will just do the same thing? The drop in the lowest vaccinated states and rise in the lowest is most likely attributable to natural immunity acquired when the numbers were reversed in the summer. Cumulatively, when the Delta wave ends, I'll bet that the TOTALS from start to finish will end up being the same regardless of how many people were vaccinated.

Image



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TC Talks
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Re: Now no correlation between a state's vaccination rate and its daily Covid case rate

Post by TC Talks » Fri Dec 03, 2021 12:44 pm

Vaccination rate to hospitalization and death rate really shows why those irresponsible ignorant anti-vaxers are such a danger to our citizens and economy.

My vaccinated neighbor two doors down is experiencing mild covid symptoms. My flooring guy who deliberately avoided vaccination is dead.

Additionally, my dead flooring guy probably gave the virus to others around him spreading the virus.

What batshit crazy data can you pull up to respond to that?

BMW How many people have you taken the credit for killing this week?


“The more you can increase fear of drugs, crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.”
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bmw
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Re: Now no correlation between a state's vaccination rate and its daily Covid case rate

Post by bmw » Fri Dec 03, 2021 1:18 pm

Hospitalization charts.

First, a re-post of the Nov 14th data:

Image

Now, the current data:

Image

That divergence is collapsing and collapsing quickly. What was a 43% difference just 3 weeks ago (21 hospitalizations vs 12 hospitalizations) is already down to a 15% difference (21 vs 18). Translation: while hospitalization rates remain flat in the lowest vaccinated states, they are quickly rising in the highest ones. And this doesn't even account for the 2-week lag in data between cases and hospitalizations. I will wager that based on these trends that in 2 more weeks, this graph will either be flat or slightly upwards towards higher rates in the highest vaccinated states.



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TC Talks
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Re: Now no correlation between a state's vaccination rate and its daily Covid case rate

Post by TC Talks » Fri Dec 03, 2021 5:20 pm

That's really funny I get the New York Times, who correlated this data?


“The more you can increase fear of drugs, crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.”
― Noam Chomsky

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