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Unvaccinated people 11 times more likely to die of covid

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bmw
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Re: Unvaccinated people 11 times more likely to die of covid

Post by bmw » Wed Oct 20, 2021 8:55 am

MWmetalhead wrote:
Wed Oct 20, 2021 7:03 am
As for the whole "natural immunity" debate, there are people who have contracted COVID multiple times, and in some instances, the most recent case is the worst.
You left out how rare this is. While raw data is difficult to come by, one state that does report this stat is North Carolina.
Of the more than 1.3 million confirmed coronavirus cases as of Sept. 20 in North Carolina, 10,812 were reinfections, according to DHHS. The majority of those reinfections took place since late July, when the more contagious delta variant of the virus caused a spike in cases nationwide. The state doesn’t report how many reinfected people became sick enough to end up in a hospital, but it says 94 of them died of the disease. Overall, 16,719 people have died of COVID-19 in North Carolina as of Monday.

Read more at: https://www.newsobserver.com/news/coron ... rylink=cpy
So since the beginning of the pandemic (now basically 19 months), in the state of North Carolina, 10,812 people out of 1.3 million got re-infected. That is a rate of 1 in 120, or 0.83 percent.

And then looking at deaths, 94 of 16,719 deaths were people who got reinfected. That is 1 in 178.

To to be clear, when comparing natural immunity to vaccinated immunity, people with natural immunity are 120x less likely to get Covid than people who haven't had it before, and are 178x less likely to die from it (and the fact that the 178 is higher than the 120 means that even if you do get re-infected, your mortality rate is actually 48% LOWER). And this covers an entire 19-month span. And as a side note, these odds assume that roughly 1/2 the population has natural immunity (ie, for accurate comparisons, the group size for each must be roughly equal). Assuming that antibody studies done earlier this year are accurate, it is likely that more than 50% of the population has natural immunity, which would make these 120x and 178x numbers proportionately higher depending on how much higher than 50% that real number is.

I'm sorry, but these numbers blow vaccinated immunity numbers right out of the water, by orders of magnitude.



Matt
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Re: Unvaccinated people 11 times more likely to die of covid

Post by Matt » Wed Oct 20, 2021 9:20 am

bmw wrote:
Wed Oct 20, 2021 8:55 am
MWmetalhead wrote:
Wed Oct 20, 2021 7:03 am
As for the whole "natural immunity" debate, there are people who have contracted COVID multiple times, and in some instances, the most recent case is the worst.
You left out how rare this is. While raw data is difficult to come by, one state that does report this stat is North Carolina.
Of the more than 1.3 million confirmed coronavirus cases as of Sept. 20 in North Carolina, 10,812 were reinfections, according to DHHS. The majority of those reinfections took place since late July, when the more contagious delta variant of the virus caused a spike in cases nationwide. The state doesn’t report how many reinfected people became sick enough to end up in a hospital, but it says 94 of them died of the disease. Overall, 16,719 people have died of COVID-19 in North Carolina as of Monday.

Read more at: https://www.newsobserver.com/news/coron ... rylink=cpy
So since the beginning of the pandemic (now basically 19 months), in the state of North Carolina, 10,812 people out of 1.3 million got re-infected. That is a rate of 1 in 120, or 0.83 percent.

And then looking at deaths, 94 of 16,719 deaths were people who got reinfected. That is 1 in 178.

To to be clear, when comparing natural immunity to vaccinated immunity, people with natural immunity are 120x less likely to get Covid than people who haven't had it before, and are 178x less likely to die from it (and the fact that the 178 is higher than the 120 means that even if you do get re-infected, your mortality rate is actually 48% LOWER). And this covers an entire 19-month span. And as a side note, these odds assume that roughly 1/2 the population has natural immunity (ie, for accurate comparisons, the group size for each must be roughly equal). Assuming that antibody studies done earlier this year are accurate, it is likely that more than 50% of the population has natural immunity, which would make these 120x and 178x numbers proportionately higher depending on how much higher than 50% that real number is.

I'm sorry, but these numbers blow vaccinated immunity numbers right out of the water, by orders of magnitude.
Have you done the same calculation for people who get vaccinated and then get covid? Hybrid immunity is probably what is needed. Of course you haven't, because it blows up your play stupid games, win stupid prizes bullshit argument.


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Re: Unvaccinated people 11 times more likely to die of covid

Post by audiophile » Wed Oct 20, 2021 9:24 am

Can we all agree on this?

In order of immunity from (best to worst):

Natural and Immunized
Natural
Immunized

PS I believe that Immunized and never infected people should have to wear N95+ masks.


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Re: Unvaccinated people 11 times more likely to die of covid

Post by Matt » Wed Oct 20, 2021 9:34 am

Rankings

1. Vaccinated first, and then mild illness for hybrid immunity
2. Vaccinated immunity
3. Natural immunity from an infection prior to the vaccine being available

Unranked: Being too fucking stupid to get a readily available vaccine and getting covid and being lucky enough to not be hospitalized or death, long term consequences be damned!


What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

bmw
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Re: Unvaccinated people 11 times more likely to die of covid

Post by bmw » Wed Oct 20, 2021 9:39 am

The North Carolina numbers seem to suggest that your are correct as also buried in that article is the fact that of the 11k re-infections, only 200 of those people were vaccinated. Now, that number is a bit deceptive insofar as some of the reinfections would have occurred before we had a vaccine and also early in the vaccine availability curve when a low percentage of people were vaccinated, but even accounting for all of that, and taking at face value the numbers originally posted in this thread, it would appear that hybrid immunity does offer even better protection.

That said, the argument can still easily be made that if you're one of the many people who does have natural immunity, that the degree of protection your natural immunity offers significantly alters the risk-benefit analysis as far as still getting vaccinated; specifically, that if your protection already stands at 99.2%, that the long-term unknown risk associated with the vaccine may not be worth those extra tenths of a percentage point you gain in protection by then getting the vaccine.



bmw
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Re: Unvaccinated people 11 times more likely to die of covid

Post by bmw » Wed Oct 20, 2021 9:41 am

Matt wrote:
Wed Oct 20, 2021 9:34 am
Rankings

1. Vaccinated first, and then mild illness for hybrid immunity
2. Vaccinated immunity
3. Natural immunity from an infection prior to the vaccine being available

Unranked: Being too fucking stupid to get a readily available vaccine and getting covid and being lucky enough to not be hospitalized or death, long term consequences be damned!
I absolutely cannot agree with your order for #2 and #3. If you ALREADY had Covid when there was no vaccine available, then that event has ALREADY HAPPENED, and if you survived it, your level of protection, at least based on the North Carolina data, far exceeds that of having never been infected and then getting the vaccine. Unless you want to dispute the numbers.



bmw
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Re: Unvaccinated people 11 times more likely to die of covid

Post by bmw » Wed Oct 20, 2021 9:43 am

There is also the caveat for hybrid immunity for which order things happened - ie, sick and then vaccine, or vaccine and then breakthrough case. The verdict is still out on how common re-infection rates will be for people who were never sick, got vaccinated, and then got a breakthrough case. That will answer the question that I've asked many times in here before - and that is whether the vaccine interferes with your body's ability to develop natural immunity during a breakthrough infection. I'm still not aware of any data on this. And as I've said before - my fear here is an endless cycle of breakthrough cases among vaccinated people.



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Re: Unvaccinated people 11 times more likely to die of covid

Post by Matt » Wed Oct 20, 2021 9:48 am

bmw wrote:
Wed Oct 20, 2021 9:41 am
Matt wrote:
Wed Oct 20, 2021 9:34 am
Rankings

1. Vaccinated first, and then mild illness for hybrid immunity
2. Vaccinated immunity
3. Natural immunity from an infection prior to the vaccine being available

Unranked: Being too fucking stupid to get a readily available vaccine and getting covid and being lucky enough to not be hospitalized or death, long term consequences be damned!
I absolutely cannot agree with your order for #2 and #3. If you ALREADY had Covid when there was no vaccine available, then that event has ALREADY HAPPENED, and if you survived it, your level of protection, at least based on the North Carolina data, far exceeds that of having never been infected and then getting the vaccine. Unless you want to dispute the numbers.
So, you agree with #1?


What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

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Re: Unvaccinated people 11 times more likely to die of covid

Post by SoutheastMIViewer » Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:55 pm

Had covid twice.. I guess you see dead people :rollin


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Re: Unvaccinated people 11 times more likely to die of covid

Post by Matt » Wed Oct 20, 2021 1:02 pm

SoutheastMIViewer wrote:
Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:55 pm
Had covid twice.. I guess you see dead people :rollin
Are you vaccinated or are you counting down to #3?


What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

bmw
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Re: Unvaccinated people 11 times more likely to die of covid

Post by bmw » Wed Oct 20, 2021 5:35 pm

Matt wrote:
Wed Oct 20, 2021 9:48 am
So, you agree with #1?
If you read my post immediately following that one (that starts "there is also the caveat for hybrid immunity...") then you got my answer. In short, I'm waiting for data on the recurrence level of breakthrough in vaccinated people who had no natural immunity before getting vaccinated. If the data shows that once you get a breakthrough case that your odds of getting sick again are less than 1 percent, then I'll agree with #1.



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Re: Unvaccinated people 11 times more likely to die of covid

Post by SoutheastMIViewer » Wed Oct 20, 2021 5:49 pm

Matt wrote:
Wed Oct 20, 2021 1:02 pm
SoutheastMIViewer wrote:
Wed Oct 20, 2021 12:55 pm
Had covid twice.. I guess you see dead people :rollin
Are you vaccinated or are you counting down to #3?
Nope. We all get sick and out immune system deals with it.


If you don’t have a mask covering your exhaust pipe on the car, you are not trying to stop global warming by preventing the harmful emission particles from spraying out!

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Re: Unvaccinated people 11 times more likely to die of covid

Post by Bryce » Wed Oct 20, 2021 7:01 pm

SoutheastMIViewer wrote:
Wed Oct 20, 2021 5:49 pm

Nope. We all get sick and out immune system deals with it.
Or not and needs some help


New York and Chicago were all in with respect to their sanctuary status — until they were hit with the challenge of actually providing sanctuary. In other words, typical liberal hypocrisy.

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Re: Unvaccinated people 11 times more likely to die of covid

Post by Matt » Wed Oct 20, 2021 7:23 pm

Bryce wrote:
Wed Oct 20, 2021 7:01 pm
SoutheastMIViewer wrote:
Wed Oct 20, 2021 5:49 pm

Nope. We all get sick and out immune system deals with it.
Or not and needs some help
That's why you get vaccinated, to build up your body's defense. You surely wouldn't recommend not being armed to protect your family in the event of a break-in, right? Not getting vaccinated and then hoping for the best is like defending against a home invader with a pencil.


What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

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Re: Unvaccinated people 11 times more likely to die of covid

Post by audiophile » Thu Oct 21, 2021 9:41 am

bmw wrote:
Wed Oct 20, 2021 5:35 pm
Matt wrote:
Wed Oct 20, 2021 9:48 am
So, you agree with #1?
If you read my post immediately following that one (that starts "there is also the caveat for hybrid immunity...") then you got my answer. In short, I'm waiting for data on the recurrence level of breakthrough in vaccinated people who had no natural immunity before getting vaccinated. If the data shows that once you get a breakthrough case that your odds of getting sick again are less than 1 percent, then I'll agree with #1.
I'm not sure Matt understands my post. I was ranking immunity protection. If you had Covid and got over it, and then you get vaccine you would have a higher protection than just being immunized.


Ask not what your country can do FOR you; ask what they are about to do TO YOU!!

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