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Is overuse of the current Covid vaccines going to cause deadlier variants?

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bmw
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Is overuse of the current Covid vaccines going to cause deadlier variants?

Post by bmw » Sat Aug 07, 2021 8:37 pm

This is certainly a fascinating study. Done in 2015, before Covid, and thus, before this pandemic became so politically charged.

Here is the abstract:
Could some vaccines drive the evolution of more virulent pathogens? Conventional wisdom is that natural selection will remove highly lethal pathogens if host death greatly reduces transmission. Vaccines that keep hosts alive but still allow transmission could thus allow very virulent strains to circulate in a population. Here we show experimentally that immunization of chickens against Marek's disease virus enhances the fitness of more virulent strains, making it possible for hyperpathogenic strains to transmit. Immunity elicited by direct vaccination or by maternal vaccination prolongs host survival but does not prevent infection, viral replication or transmission, thus extending the infectious periods of strains otherwise too lethal to persist. Our data show that anti-disease vaccines that do not prevent transmission can create conditions that promote the emergence of pathogen strains that cause more severe disease in unvaccinated hosts.
https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/a ... io.1002198

Wow, talk about a study that was written for the near future. This sounds like exactly what we're dealing with with the Covid vaccine - a high percentage of the population is getting vaccinated, but they're apparently still spreading the disease in large numbers. Look at Florida. Nearly 60 percent of the population is vaccinated (nearly 50 percent fully), yet, their daily case numbers are just as high as during their peak when nearly nobody was vaccinated. Sure looks to me like the vaccine isn't stopping the spread there worth a diddly squat. And per the above referenced study, that is just a breeding ground for variants. And not only that, but it is the UNVACCINATED people who are being put at a higher risk of a deadly outcome (see the last sentence in the above quoted abstract) BY VACCINATED PEOPLE.

So I'm tiring real fast of being lectured by the pro-vaccine crowd (even including some conservatives) who insist that the science here is settled. I don't think we're far enough along yet to conclude that there won't be LONG-TERM problems caused directly by our current vaccination efforts.

It has long been my opinion that only about 20-25% of the population should actually be getting vaccinated - mostly older people who test negative for antibodies and a handful of younger people who have severe underlying conditions. And studies like this only further back up my position.

I just hope that the pro-vaccination hysteria doesn't come with a big price to pay down the road.



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Re: Is overuse of the current Covid vaccines going to cause deadlier variants?

Post by Matt » Sat Aug 07, 2021 9:14 pm

The problem is the UNDERUSE of vaccines, as exhibited by the WSJ article I referenced in another thread. We have a pandemic of the UNVACCINATED.
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bmw
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Re: Is overuse of the current Covid vaccines going to cause deadlier variants?

Post by bmw » Sat Aug 07, 2021 10:18 pm

So you find the concept of a vaccinated host being a carrier and a breeding ground for a future variant to be utter hogwash?

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Re: Is overuse of the current Covid vaccines going to cause deadlier variants?

Post by Matt » Sat Aug 07, 2021 10:30 pm

bmw wrote:
Sat Aug 07, 2021 10:18 pm
So you find the concept of a vaccinated host being a carrier and a breeding ground for a future variant to be utter hogwash?
I'm not a scientist, and I don't try to play one on here. I did read in the WSJ that research is suggesting vaccinations (not just covid) may lessen the chances for dementia or alzheimers. If most people were vaccinated, this thing would be over.
Voting for Trump is dumber than playing Russian Roulette with fully loaded chambers.

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bmw
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Re: Is overuse of the current Covid vaccines going to cause deadlier variants?

Post by bmw » Sun Aug 08, 2021 1:13 pm

So how do you explain Florida's numbers being through the roof?

January 8th peak - 17,991 daily cases
Today - 19,250 daily cases

January 8th vaccinated immunity - 2% of the population
January 8th natural immunity - roughly 35% of the population

Today's vaccinated immunity - 60% of Florida's population
Today's natural immunity - roughly 55% of the population
==================================================
Total combined population immunity on January 8th - 36% (so 64% of the population with no immunity whatsoever)
Total combined population immunity Today - 82% (so 18% of the population with no immunity whatsoever)

Conclusion - Today we have only 18% of Florida's population without immunity compared to 64% in January, yet daily cases are actually HIGHER today, despite the total potential host pool being literally 3.5x smaller.

You have any theories as to why this is the case? I do. Delta is more contagious AND there are a significant number of vaccinated people still carrying and spreading the virus. The difference is that since they're not getting that sick, they still going out into the public and spreading the disease instead of staying home and isolating themselves from the rest of the population.

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Re: Is overuse of the current Covid vaccines going to cause deadlier variants?

Post by MotorCityRadioFreak » Sun Aug 08, 2021 1:35 pm

The major problem with COVID is that the Delta variant sprang from India with massive rates of transmission which is exactly what is going on now in Florida. I expect the DeSantis variant will spring up by Labor Day. People have mask fatigue and ditched the masks in the spring in Florida. My aunt lives down there for 8 months out of the year, and she noticed it. Masks work.
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Re: Is overuse of the current Covid vaccines going to cause deadlier variants?

Post by Rate This » Mon Aug 09, 2021 9:09 am

bmw wrote:
Sun Aug 08, 2021 1:13 pm
So how do you explain Florida's numbers being through the roof?

January 8th peak - 17,991 daily cases
Today - 19,250 daily cases

January 8th vaccinated immunity - 2% of the population
January 8th natural immunity - roughly 35% of the population

Today's vaccinated immunity - 60% of Florida's population
Today's natural immunity - roughly 55% of the population
==================================================
Total combined population immunity on January 8th - 36% (so 64% of the population with no immunity whatsoever)
Total combined population immunity Today - 82% (so 18% of the population with no immunity whatsoever)

Conclusion - Today we have only 18% of Florida's population without immunity compared to 64% in January, yet daily cases are actually HIGHER today, despite the total potential host pool being literally 3.5x smaller.

You have any theories as to why this is the case? I do. Delta is more contagious AND there are a significant number of vaccinated people still carrying and spreading the virus. The difference is that since they're not getting that sick, they still going out into the public and spreading the disease instead of staying home and isolating themselves from the rest of the population.
The idea isn’t that you won’t get it at all or spread it it’s that you won’t get hospitalized and die. They expected some of the vaccinated to get the disease and to spread it anyways. Having a vaccinated population will cut down on transmission and severity but it will never eliminate it entirely.

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