WSJ: Breakthrough cases represent 0.1% of vaccinated people

[Matt]

Why are the vaccinated wearing masks again?

The Delta variant of the Covid-19 virus appears to be breaking through the protection vaccines provide at a higher rate than previous strains, a Wall Street Journal analysis found, though infections among the fully inoculated remain a tiny fraction of overall cases, and symptoms tend to be milder.

U.S. states counted at least 193,204 so-called breakthrough cases among vaccinated people between Jan. 1 and early August, according to data that health departments in 44 states and Washington, D.C., provided to the Journal. The figure represents 0.1% of the more than 136 million fully vaccinated people in those states and the capital.

The total number of breakthrough cases is likely higher, public-health experts said, because fully vaccinated people with asymptomatic infections likely aren’t getting tested for Covid-19. Additionally, several states said the data were unavailable, while others track only breakthrough cases that result in hospitalizations or death.

...

Rina Salhout, a fully vaccinated 39-year-old mother of two who lives in Hudson, N.Y., said she developed flulike symptoms and temporarily lost her sense of taste after she visited the Boston’s Children’s Museum in July with her family. She tested positive for Covid-19, but she said that her symptoms resolved within a few days and that she didn’t spread the illness to her family.

“I never had the chance to really feel like I had Covid, but I believe the vaccine saved us,” Ms. Salhout said.

[Turkeytop]

Why are the vaccinated wearing masks again?

We're wearing masks to protect the people who refuse to protect themselves.

[SoutheastMIViewer]

Why are the vaccinated wearing masks again?

We're wearing masks to protect the people who refuse to protect themselves.

It’s to protect the elderly. Remember it was for only two weeks.

[zzand]

Turkeytop nailed it

[bmw]

In other words, the data on breakthrough cases, at least right now, is EXTREMELY limited. Considering that unvaccinated people who got sick were getting sick at an estimated rate of 5x the reported rate, and considering that vaccinated people are supposedly far less likely to develop symptoms, what do you want to bet that the 0.1% number is under-reported by a factor of 20x or more? Then throw in the states that aren't even giving data, and you can bump that number up to 30x or more (maybe a lot more).

[Matt]

In other words, the data on breakthrough cases, at least right now, is EXTREMELY limited. Considering that unvaccinated people who got sick were getting sick at an estimated rate of 5x the reported rate, and considering that vaccinated people are supposedly far less likely to develop symptoms, what do you want to bet that the 0.1% number is under-reported by a factor of 20x or more? Then throw in the states that aren't even giving data, and you can bump that number up to 30x or more (maybe a lot more).

Breakthrough cases are not problematic is the only way to interpret this. Here is another quote:

“Let’s be real, here: Breakthrough infections are sort of OK,” said Larry Corey, a virologist at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center in Seattle. “You get infected and you have a cold, maybe an achy fever for 24 hours. But you don’t end up in the hospital, and you don’t end up with that 2.5% chance of dying once you are hospitalized.”

[bmw]

But they're still out in the real world spreading the virus. How is that "not problematic"? At least before if they had symptoms they would stay home and self-isolate. Now they're out in public. And add to that the fact that the Delta variant has an estimated R0 value between 4.5 and 6 (ie, every person infected with Delta infects 5 or 6 other people on average) and you have an exponential spread rate, driven at least in-part by vaccinated people with asymptomatic or mild-symptomatic cases.

[Matt]

Spreading it to people who have chosen to not be vaccinated...

Aren't we for personal responsibility?

[bmw]

Ok, so in your world, only people who choose not to get the vaccine bear personal responsibility for their actions and NOT people who get vaccinated, get a breakthrough case, and go out into public (not even knowing they're sick) and spreading the virus around?

btw - to be clear, I have no problem with it as it speeds up the rate at which we'll eventually reach herd immunity. Speaking of which, just so you understand how natural immunity works - look at Florida's projections. They are literally projected to be the state with the LOWEST (literally the lowest of any of the 50 states) daily infection rate (per-capita) by mid-October, and projected to hold that spot at least through November and December. They're developing natural immunity among their population as we speak and will be better off for it in the long run. Same reason why Michigan right now is the 3rd or 4th lowest of all the states in spite of our relatively low vaccination status - our March spike of actual cases was far higher than anywhere else, and our first 2 waves were fairly severe here as well. Hence, Michigan ALSO has a relatively high rate of natural immunity within its population. Same goes for Sweden. They're way better off than anybody else right now. Meanwhile, places like Australia, Finland, and soon to be New Zealand have a far lower natural immunity rate due to them actually preventing cases over the past year and a half than most places in the world - but the price to pay for that will be Covid lasting MUCH longer in those places in the long run since there is so little immunity within their populations.

Face it, natural immunity will arise one way or another. It is just a question of how long we want to drag it out.

[bmw]

Here are those Florida projections, btw. Source is the IHME. All the grey lines are the other 49 states. Granted, these are only projections, but if these pan out, then it looks like Florida will be better off than anybody else in the near future.

[hanson]

Why are the vaccinated wearing masks again?

We're wearing masks to protect the people who refuse to protect themselves.

BINGO!!!

[Matt]

Ok, so in your world, only people who choose not to get the vaccine bear personal responsibility for their actions and NOT people who get vaccinated, get a breakthrough case, and go out into public (not even knowing they're sick) and spreading the virus around?

btw - to be clear, I have no problem with it as it speeds up the rate at which we'll eventually reach herd immunity. Speaking of which, just so you understand how natural immunity works - look at Florida's projections. They are literally projected to be the state with the LOWEST (literally the lowest of any of the 50 states) daily infection rate (per-capita) by mid-October, and projected to hold that spot at least through November and December. They're developing natural immunity among their population as we speak and will be better off for it in the long run. Same reason why Michigan right now is the 3rd or 4th lowest of all the states in spite of our relatively low vaccination status - our March spike of actual cases was far higher than anywhere else, and our first 2 waves were fairly severe here as well. Hence, Michigan ALSO has a relatively high rate of natural immunity within its population. Same goes for Sweden. They're way better off than anybody else right now. Meanwhile, places like Australia, Finland, and soon to be New Zealand have a far lower natural immunity rate due to them actually preventing cases over the past year and a half than most places in the world - but the price to pay for that will be Covid lasting MUCH longer in those places in the long run since there is so little immunity within their populations.

Face it, natural immunity will arise one way or another. It is just a question of how long we want to drag it out.

Why would a vaccinated individual who gets an asymptomatic infection have a personal responsibility to stay home? How would they know?

We want the same thing, for this to be over. It seems like you are hell-bent on being correct with your original theory on herd immunity.

[Honeyman]

Ok, so in your world, only people who choose not to get the vaccine bear personal responsibility for their actions and NOT people who get vaccinated, get a breakthrough case, and go out into public (not even knowing they're sick) and spreading the virus around?

btw - to be clear, I have no problem with it as it speeds up the rate at which we'll eventually reach herd immunity. Speaking of which, just so you understand how natural immunity works - look at Florida's projections. They are literally projected to be the state with the LOWEST (literally the lowest of any of the 50 states) daily infection rate (per-capita) by mid-October, and projected to hold that spot at least through November and December. They're developing natural immunity among their population as we speak and will be better off for it in the long run. Same reason why Michigan right now is the 3rd or 4th lowest of all the states in spite of our relatively low vaccination status - our March spike of actual cases was far higher than anywhere else, and our first 2 waves were fairly severe here as well. Hence, Michigan ALSO has a relatively high rate of natural immunity within its population. Same goes for Sweden. They're way better off than anybody else right now. Meanwhile, places like Australia, Finland, and soon to be New Zealand have a far lower natural immunity rate due to them actually preventing cases over the past year and a half than most places in the world - but the price to pay for that will be Covid lasting MUCH longer in those places in the long run since there is so little immunity within their populations.

Face it, natural immunity will arise one way or another. It is just a question of how long we want to drag it out.

Why would a vaccinated individual who gets an asymptomatic infection have a personal responsibility to stay home? How would they know?

We want the same thing, for this to be over. It seems like you are hell-bent on being correct with your original theory on herd immunity.

I hate agreeing with Matt all the time. College football cannot start soon enough.

[bmw]

Matt, I can't help it that time and again the numbers and the studies all point to natural immunity being the only comprehensive way out of this. I also can't help it that you keep turning a blind eye to the evidence on this. And again, I believe that vaccination has its place in reaching population immunity, but I have concluded that only about 20% of the population should have been vaccinated. I remain concerned that over-vaccination will have long-term consequences and may delay the eventual onset of herd immunity (herd immunity being something that I still 100% believe WILL happen).

PS - you seem equally "hell bent" on being correct that everyone needs to get vaccinated.

[Matt]

Matt, I can't help it that time and again the numbers and the studies all point to natural immunity being the only comprehensive way out of this. I also can't help it that you keep turning a blind eye to the evidence on this. And again, I believe that vaccination has its place in reaching population immunity, but I have concluded that only about 20% of the population should have been vaccinated. I remain concerned that over-vaccination will have long-term consequences and may delay the eventual onset of herd immunity (herd immunity being something that I still 100% believe WILL happen).

PS - you seem equally "hell bent" on being correct that everyone needs to get vaccinated.

I'm hell-bent on getting past this, and widespread vaccination appears to be the only way that will happen. It seems clear that if vaccinated people do get am infection, they have minor issues. It seems to be common sense based, looking at where we're at. We're not able to turn back time.