The end of a pandemic: what if this guy is correct?

[Robert Faygo]

First things first, on Feb 20 I am far from convinced this guy is correct; I personally don't think there is enough evidence yet. But my patience is running thin, and I will be eager to grab on to some sustainable good news.

When the time comes, be it in April or July or November - how do we declare this thing is over?

Do we just blast everything wide open? Do we keep protecting the most vulnerable, even of they have been vaccinated with a near zero chance that they'd succumb to COVID itself? Does everyone else, who already had a pretty low risk, just decide to be done with COVID? Management of this is probably going to be an even bigger challenge than managing shutdowns as more and more people get to the stage where they are done and think that grandma and grandpa are going to be just fine.

Since the numbers have been our only focus, what's the threshold to say ... yep ... we're good?

Who is gonna step up and lead the end of this once guys like this, and you know there will be more if the current trends hold, come out of hiding?

Johns Hopkins Doctor Thinks COVID Will Be Largely Gone By April, Half of U.S. Has Herd Immunity:
https://www.newsweek.com/john-hopkins-d ... ty-1570615

[TC Talks]

Fauci was talking about this yesterday... you can't compare the opinion of one scientist to the opinion of a collaboration of scientists across the country. That is what essentially the CDC does in trying to answer questions like this one, collaborate.

IRA FLATOW: OK. So I guess the $64 question is what is the metric for knowing when we can all return to normal? How will we know that?

ANTHONY FAUCI: I don’t think you’re going to definitively know it, but you can get a pretty good guess. When you get the overwhelming majority of the population, and I would say 70% to 85% of the population vaccinated, and the level of infections per day in the community are so low that they’re not even close to being considered a threat. Right now, even though the numbers of infections are going precipitously downward, we still have 60, 70,000 infections a day. We were up to 300 to 400,000 a day just a few weeks ago. When you get that level of viral in the community very low, then you could start thinking of returning as a society to some form of normality.

https://www.sciencefriday.com/segments/ ... transcript

NYTimes also is reporting on this question...

At first, this looks like pretty good news — under these assumptions, we could reach herd immunity as early as July. But a lot could happen between now and then. The speed and uptake of vaccination, and how long immunity lasts are big factors. The rise of new virus variants and how we respond to them will also affect the path to herd immunity.

In most scenarios, millions more people will become infected and tens or hundreds of thousands more will die before herd immunity is reached.

You weren't around when the idea was first brought up by BMW, but he felt we were ready to try out herd immunity last spring.

[TC Shuts Up]

I think there has been serious disinformation on both sides of the aisle. I'm really surprised that the D side isn't questioning the vaccines, as they were rushed to market at "Operation Warp Speed" by Donald Trump.

I also have serious doubts about statistics that were dependent of Medical Insurance reimbursements that paid much more for COVID diagnoses than say, the old fashioned flu, since there are such suspiciously low numbers of flu cases reported in 2020.

Sinclair is a convenient Bogeyman for many of you, obviously, and you need to be skeptical of ALL sources.

[TC Talks]

Feel free to skip the vaccination and run into the nearest covid ward. We're all excited to see how that will work out for you.

[Robert Faygo]

You weren't around when the idea was first brought up by BMW, but he felt we were ready to try out herd immunity last spring.

Wow. Thank goodness we didn't go that route.

I think there a lot of people that did a lot more than their share of the heavy lifting that saved scores of folks 65 and older.

[Rate This]

You weren't around when the idea was first brought up by BMW, but he felt we were ready to try out herd immunity last spring.

Wow. Thank goodness we didn't go that route.

I think there a lot of people that did a lot more than their share of the heavy lifting that saved scores of folks 65 and older.

To put a finer point on that he wanted to go the Sweden route.

[bmw]

This is actually all panning out exactly as I predicted 8 or 9 months ago. Actual infection rates are far higher than reported rates, and at the end of the day, we will reach the 70 or 80 percent herd immunity threshold whether we want to or not. It will consist of a combination of already infected Americans + vaccinated ones. The virus was and still is too contagious to be contained. Herd immunity was and still is the ONLY solution. Ideally we want more vaccinations and less illnesses, but we are where we are.

And laugh all you want about Sweden, they're comparable in population to Michigan and have had fewer cases and deaths than we have.

All the lockdown nonsense caused far more pain and suffering than what was gained.

History will prove me correct.

Side-note - I don't know if I've said it in here or not, but my projection for herd immunity for months now has been that we would reach it this summer.

Side-note #2 - Assuming 100 million Americans have already had the virus, that puts the ACTUAL mortality rate just shy of 0.5%, or right in line with the Hong Kong flu of 1968. And when that flu hit, we did virtually nothing as far as lockdowns.

[Robert Faygo]

Honest question that is not meant to be smart-assy: How do the death rates breakdown in Sweden by age groups compared to Michigan's? Did their more laissez faire policies result in a higher death rate for those 65+?

Also, I'd love to know how the timing factor played a role. If we had accelerated the course of the virus here, would more have died because of the strain on the system and the lack of time to develop treatments that worked. My guess is that we would have had a lot more of what happened at Sinai-Grace in the spring. I don't think there's solid answer on this -- the data still isn't complete.

While I agree with you that there is only so much we can do with lockdowns to help control who gets a virus like this in the long run, I also think there is plenty of scientific evidence that by stretching out the time factor science can better keep up and save lives overall.

The last thing I don't have a handle on is the differences in how we treat each other in the USA vs. Sweden. There is data out there that when this thing started here in Michigan, minorities and the disadvantaged were disproportionally suffering. The Whitmer and Dugan administrations worked their asses off to help stabilize that otherwise it might have been an even bigger tragedy in Michigan. Especially if the outstate counties and hospital systems were collapsing and needed the kind of attention that, properly, was paid to Detroit. As I recall, there was plenty of concern anyhow about the smaller systems outside of metro Detroit.

[Honeyman]

Oh yeah, bmw...you have been a savant!

I'm going to make 2 predictions. And you know my track record on predictions...


2 - The death toll in the United States as of 12/31/2020 as attributed to the Coronavirus will be less than 2,000 people. And I'll even give 3 to 1 odds (meaning 75% chance) that it is under 1,000 people. As such, the Coronavirus will be responsible for less than 5% of all deaths this year attributed to viruses.

[Robert Faygo]

Oh yeah, bmw...you have been a savant!

I'm going to make 2 predictions. And you know my track record on predictions...


2 - The death toll in the United States as of 12/31/2020 as attributed to the Coronavirus will be less than 2,000 people. And I'll even give 3 to 1 odds (meaning 75% chance) that it is under 1,000 people. As such, the Coronavirus will be responsible for less than 5% of all deaths this year attributed to viruses.

Ouch. Credibility crushed.

Unreal that we're going to hit 500,000 before the calendar reads March.

[bmw]

Oh come on. Look at the date on that prediction. We had VERY limited information at that point in time. Even Dr. Faucci was basically saying the same thing at the time - he said Americans need not worry about the Coronavirus. Yet the left still treats him like a king.

[Honeyman]

Oh come on. Look at the date on that prediction. We had VERY limited information at that point in time. Even Dr. Faucci was basically saying the same thing at the time - he said Americans need not worry about the Coronavirus. Yet the left still treats him like a king.

Not everybody had it wrong....

I'm going to make 2 predictions. And you know my track record on predictions...


2 - The death toll in the United States as of 12/31/2020 as attributed to the Coronavirus will be less than 2,000 people. And I'll even give 3 to 1 odds (meaning 75% chance) that it is under 1,000 people. As such, the Coronavirus will be responsible for less than 5% of all deaths this year attributed to viruses.

Less than 2000 people?!? Add two zeroes and you still wont be close! And what kind of human being tries to pick death counts from this global tragedy like its a point spread in a football game?!?

[bmw]

For context, your response came 16 days later - very near the end of March. A lot of information came in over those few weeks.

[Honeyman]

For context, your response came 16 days later - very near the end of March. A lot of information came in over those few weeks.

Thats why they are called "predictions".

You missed by HALF A MILLION American lives....and growing.

[km1125]

....
There is data out there that when this thing started here in Michigan, minorities and the disadvantaged were disproportionally suffering. The Whitmer and Dugan administrations worked their asses off to help stabilize that otherwise it might have been an even bigger tragedy in Michigan. Especially if the outstate counties and hospital systems were collapsing and needed the kind of attention that, properly, was paid to Detroit. ....

That's a complete bullshit narrative driven by the racists in power. Remember when Whitmer and others were saying "minorities were 40% of the deaths but only 14% of the population"? They were essentially comparing the death rate in DETROIT with the demographic makeup in the whole state. Where did the early deaths occur? DETROIT, which is 78% African-American, yet their deaths were "only" 40% of the total.

Death rates were also higher early on because of the lack of medical care but were also exacerbated by Whitmer's policies regarding elder care - which also initially was a problem with deaths in DETROIT and Wayne County.

Folks caught up with the virus early were subject to the shortcomings in healthcare, as NO ONE knew the best treatments. It took a few months before they really started getting their handling in the medical community more organized and "science" based. Even still, I think we're woefully inadequate in this area, serving all patients regardless of race.