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Science says: It’s time to start easing the lockdowns

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Bryce
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Science says: It’s time to start easing the lockdowns

Post by Bryce » Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:19 am

Op Ed by Scott W. Atlas, MD, the David and Joan Traitel Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. He was chief of neuroradiology at Stanford University Medical Center from 1998 until 2012.

https://nypost.com/2020/04/26/science-s ... lockdowns/

Entire op ed is worth a read. Here are two exerpts.
Multiple recent studies from Iceland, Germany, USC, Stanford and New York City all suggest that the fatality rate if infected is likely far lower than early estimates, perhaps under 0.1 to 0.4 percent, i.e., 10 to 40 times lower than estimates that motivated extreme isolation.
protecting older, at-risk people helps prevent hospital overcrowding. Of New York City’s 38,000 hospitalizations, less than 1 percent have been patients under 18 years of age. Studying 4,103 confirmed COVID-19 patients with symptoms bad enough to seek medical care, Dr. Leora Horwitz of NYU Medical Center concluded: “Age is far and away the strongest risk factor for hospitalization.”


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MWmetalhead
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Re: Science says: It’s time to start easing the lockdowns

Post by MWmetalhead » Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:56 am

I think it's safe to say there are conflicting views regarding infection, re-infection and mortality.

I think those with preexisting conditions should continue to exercise extreme caution. The rest of us should be allowed to go about our business, subject to social distancing and other precautions.


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TC Shuts Up
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Re: Science says: It’s time to start easing the lockdowns

Post by TC Shuts Up » Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:08 pm

MWmetalhead wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:56 am
I think those with preexisting conditions should continue to exercise extreme caution. The rest of us should be allowed to go about our business, subject to social distancing and other precautions.
And coughing on Seniors and Trump supporters.

There. Fixed it.


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Bryce
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Re: Science says: It’s time to start easing the lockdowns

Post by Bryce » Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:10 pm

MWmetalhead wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:56 am
I think it's safe to say there are conflicting views regarding infection, re-infection and mortality.

I think those with preexisting conditions should continue to exercise extreme caution. The rest of us should be allowed to go about our business, subject to social distancing and other precautions.
That's pretty much the gist of the good Doctor's Op-Ed.


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TC Talks
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Re: Science says: It’s time to start easing the lockdowns

Post by TC Talks » Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:28 pm

You will never find two scientist to completely agree on a conclusion. That is what is so brilliant about science; consensus.

you can't take one person's opinion from one snapshot in time and have it be the conclusion for the entire nation. I think there are plenty of places in Michigan that are safe but guess what? The state announced today that only 165,000 tests have been conducted in a state of 10 million. where are all these tests that Trump was promising us millions every week?

We don't have enough data and this Stanford doctor does not have enough data to make blanket statements at this time. Once you see mass testing occur in Michigan decisions based on science are not long behind.

you would expect our federal government to figure this out and communicated it as a part of a reopening strategy but apparently when you have nothing but an idiot and his yes men you'll never get leadership.


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Re: Science says: It’s time to start easing the lockdowns

Post by Turkeytop » Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:35 pm

Bryce wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:19 am
Op Ed by Scott W. Atlas, MD, the David and Joan Traitel Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. He was chief of neuroradiology at Stanford University Medical Center from 1998 until 2012.


TC Shuts Up wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:37 pm
Every time people hide behind the word "Science", I think of this song.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V83JR2IoI8k



During the middle ages they celebrated the end of the plague with wine and orgies. Does anyone know if there is anything planned when this one ends?

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Re: Science says: It’s time to start easing the lockdowns

Post by Bryce » Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:15 pm

Turkeytop wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 1:35 pm
Bryce wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 11:19 am
Op Ed by Scott W. Atlas, MD, the David and Joan Traitel Senior Fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution. He was chief of neuroradiology at Stanford University Medical Center from 1998 until 2012.


TC Shuts Up wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:37 pm
Every time people hide behind the word "Science", I think of this song.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V83JR2IoI8k

You would love our Governor then, they've made a drinking game around her use of the word during her TV announcements.
Last edited by Bryce on Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.


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bmw
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Re: Science says: It’s time to start easing the lockdowns

Post by bmw » Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:19 pm

I think TC Talks should take a few lessons in statistical analysis before claiming that we need to do significantly more testing before reaching any conclusions. So long as your samples are truly random, you don't need very large sample sizes to reach conclusions with 95% confidence intervals.

Also today, I heard a funny term - anti-herders: Just like how anti-vaxxers are opposed to vaccinations for illogical reasons, anti-herders are opposed to a herd immunity strategy for also illogical reasons.



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Re: Science says: It’s time to start easing the lockdowns

Post by Rate This » Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:22 pm

bmw wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 2:19 pm
I think TC Talks should take a few lessons in statistical analysis before claiming that we need to do significantly more testing before reaching any conclusions. So long as your samples are truly random, you don't need very large sample sizes to reach conclusions with 95% confidence intervals.

Also today, I heard a funny term - anti-herders: Just like how anti-vaxxers are opposed to vaccinations for illogical reasons, anti-herders are opposed to a herd immunity strategy for also illogical reasons.
Even at 0.5-0.75% which it now appears to be based on MULTILPLE studies... including an extensive one in New York that I wanted to see happen (glad it did) it looks like this will still be several times deadlier than the flu with a 10-15% hospitalization rate. That 10-15% number will be the issue and not so much the death rate. Anything killing 60,000 in under 2 months is still pretty bad though.



km1125
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Re: Science says: It’s time to start easing the lockdowns

Post by km1125 » Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:51 pm

Rate This wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:22 pm
Even at 0.5-0.75% which it now appears to be based on MULTILPLE studies... including an extensive one in New York that I wanted to see happen (glad it did) it looks like this will still be several times deadlier than the flu with a 10-15% hospitalization rate. That 10-15% number will be the issue and not so much the death rate. Anything killing 60,000 in under 2 months is still pretty bad though.
Wait. The current hospitalization rate just compared to confirmed cases is only in the 15% range. And we all know (or should) that there are many, many more cases out there that haven' been confirmed through testing, so the actual hospitalization rate is much, much less. Probably only 7% of the symptomatic cases and between 1-4% of all cases.



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Re: Science says: It’s time to start easing the lockdowns

Post by Rate This » Wed Apr 29, 2020 6:15 pm

km1125 wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 5:51 pm
Rate This wrote:
Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:22 pm
Even at 0.5-0.75% which it now appears to be based on MULTILPLE studies... including an extensive one in New York that I wanted to see happen (glad it did) it looks like this will still be several times deadlier than the flu with a 10-15% hospitalization rate. That 10-15% number will be the issue and not so much the death rate. Anything killing 60,000 in under 2 months is still pretty bad though.
Wait. The current hospitalization rate just compared to confirmed cases is only in the 15% range. And we all know (or should) that there are many, many more cases out there that haven' been confirmed through testing, so the actual hospitalization rate is much, much less. Probably only 7% of the symptomatic cases and between 1-4% of all cases.
There are also many people who have died at home or should have been hospitalized but were sent home. Even then... especially out in the rural areas even a small influx of new people would prompt a crisis...



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TC Talks
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Re: Science says: It’s time to start easing the lockdowns

Post by TC Talks » Wed Apr 29, 2020 10:32 pm

Otsego County is deadlier than Oakland County when you look at it from a deaths per hundred thousand.

I get what everybody is saying. Grand Traverse County has not had a new case nor have we had any deaths in quite some time. But I go back to that simple little adage; if I gave you a hundred Skittles and told you only three would kill you, how many Skittles would you eat?

Are you suggesting that you're ready to tempt fate by getting covid-19? Science hasn't demonstrated exactly who gets it and how they are able to beat it. Maybe we should treat this like the motorcycle helmet law, those who want to ignore stay in place must purchase additional insurance to pay for their pending hospitalization.

I can tell you the tremendous lack of face masks with both store employees and their guests will delay the decision to reopen more businesses. The governor made it really clear employees must wear face masks. It just shows there are some really ignorant stubborn motherfukers who will screw it up for the rest of us just like the idiots who caused motorboats to be banned.


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Re: Science says: It’s time to start easing the lockdowns

Post by JackAttack FM » Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:43 am

Atlas is a known schill for the drug companies, insurance providers and whatever fake (conservative) media wants him to say. 

He's advicated against lower drug prices, the infant mortality rate and higher health insurance rates and less coverage.

Atlas is a neuroradiologist, he diagnoses problems of the brain and neck. Things that are a foot away from the lower respitory area that Covid-19 infects. He has never had any specialty of infectious viruses.

He's a regular Fake(Fox) News contributor where he's found a way to get paid to say whatever they want him to. It's no surprise he's got an op-ed in Rupert Murdoch's NY Piss... sorry Post.

So, its not "science" its a right wing schill.



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Re: Science says: It’s time to start easing the lockdowns

Post by Bryce » Thu Apr 30, 2020 9:05 am

JackAttack FM wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:43 am
Atlas is a known schill for the drug companies, insurance providers and whatever fake (conservative) media wants him to say. 

He's advicated against lower drug prices, the infant mortality rate and higher health insurance rates and less coverage.

Atlas is a neuroradiologist, he diagnoses problems of the brain and neck. Things that are a foot away from the lower respitory area that Covid-19 infects. He has never had any specialty of infectious viruses.

He's a regular Fake(Fox) News contributor where he's found a way to get paid to say whatever they want him to. It's no surprise he's got an op-ed in Rupert Murdoch's NY Piss... sorry Post.

So, its not "science" its a right wing schill.
Would a similar opinion published in the N.Y. Slmes, errr sorry, Times make you feel warm an fuzzy all over?

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opin ... ncing.html


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bmw
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Re: Science says: It’s time to start easing the lockdowns

Post by bmw » Thu Apr 30, 2020 10:10 am

While science may say it is time to start lifting lockdowns, California continues to take them to the extreme. Starting tomorrow, all beaches and state parks will be closed

Sounds like law enforcement isn't all too thrilled about it.

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/cali ... index.html



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