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Where's the evidence that "Stay at Home" slows the spread?

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bmw
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Where's the evidence that "Stay at Home" slows the spread?

Post by bmw » Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:57 am

Does anyone out there have any hard evidence proving that "stay at home" orders issued by state governors actually slows the spread of the virus? There are still some states in the US without such orders in place (some counties or cities in those states have the orders, but not the entire state), and I see no correlation whatsoever between stay-at-home and per-capita virus infection rate.

Then there's Sweden, which as I pointed out in another thread, even still has their schools open. Virtually nothing is shut down there, and yet their per-capita spread rate is virtually identical to that of the US and the UK.

So outside of just the argument of "common sense," is there any actual evidence that stay-at home works?



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Re: Where's the evidence that "Stay at Home" slows the spread?

Post by Rate This » Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:07 am

bmw wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:57 am
Does anyone out there have any hard evidence proving that "stay at home" orders issued by state governors actually slows the spread of the virus? There are still some states in the US without such orders in place (some counties or cities in those states have the orders, but not the entire state), and I see no correlation whatsoever between stay-at-home and per-capita virus infection rate.

Then there's Sweden, which as I pointed out in another thread, even still has their schools open. Virtually nothing is shut down there, and yet their per-capita spread rate is virtually identical to that of the US and the UK.

So outside of just the argument of "common sense," is there any actual evidence that stay-at home works?
Every person that minimized their contact with someone for 2 weeks minimized the spread... that would just be simple logic. So if I contact 4 people at the grocery store once vs. 500 between work and everything else I normally do in 2 weeks it’s going to slow the spread.



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audiophile
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Re: Where's the evidence that "Stay at Home" slows the spread?

Post by audiophile » Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:20 am

I just got back from the grocery store, half of the people were wearing masks, as well as the employees.

The six foot thing is mostly a placebo to keep the general population from buying masks.

If you have ever seen someone sneezing near a window in bright sunlight the spray of particles goes everywhere.


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bmw
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Re: Where's the evidence that "Stay at Home" slows the spread?

Post by bmw » Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:35 am

Rate This wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:07 am
Every person that minimized their contact with someone for 2 weeks minimized the spread... that would just be simple logic. So if I contact 4 people at the grocery store once vs. 500 between work and everything else I normally do in 2 weeks it’s going to slow the spread.
Except I didn't ask about minimized contact. You skipped a step in your logic.

A) Stay-in-place orders leads to
B) less overall personal interaction which leads to
C) slower rate of infection

You skipped right from A to C.

This is precisely why I asked for actual evidence instead of just common sense. Because on the surface, logic certainly dictates that for any given individual person, the fewer number of people he/she has close interactions with, the lower the odds of contracting the virus. What I'm really asking is do these stay-in-place orders, in reality, have that desired effect? Is there any evidence? In-particular, stay-in-place orders that have the number of exceptions that most have.



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audiophile
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Re: Where's the evidence that "Stay at Home" slows the spread?

Post by audiophile » Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:54 am

BMW, is making a great point!

Slows but doesn't stop it, it may not even change the total number of infections by much.
Last edited by audiophile on Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:55 am, edited 1 time in total.


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Re: Where's the evidence that "Stay at Home" slows the spread?

Post by Rate This » Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:55 am

bmw wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:35 am
Rate This wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:07 am
Every person that minimized their contact with someone for 2 weeks minimized the spread... that would just be simple logic. So if I contact 4 people at the grocery store once vs. 500 between work and everything else I normally do in 2 weeks it’s going to slow the spread.
Except I didn't ask about minimized contact. You skipped a step in your logic.

A) Stay-in-place orders leads to
B) less overall personal interaction which leads to
C) slower rate of infection

You skipped right from A to C.

This is precisely why I asked for actual evidence instead of just common sense. Because on the surface, logic certainly dictates that for any given individual person, the fewer number of people he/she has close interactions with, the lower the odds of contracting the virus. What I'm really asking is do these stay-in-place orders, in reality, have that desired effect? Is there any evidence? In-particular, stay-in-place orders that have the number of exceptions that most have.
Well... traffic levels are certainly way way down from usual... though they appeared to rise slightly as the week went on.



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Re: Where's the evidence that "Stay at Home" slows the spread?

Post by JackAttack FM » Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:31 am

Coronavirus Slowdown in Seattle Suggests Restrictions Are Working
Officials in Washington State worry that their gains are precarious, but they see evidence that containment strategies have lowered the rate of virus transmission.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/us/s ... -rate.html



bmw
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Re: Where's the evidence that "Stay at Home" slows the spread?

Post by bmw » Mon Mar 30, 2020 1:25 pm

JackAttack FM wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:31 am
Coronavirus Slowdown in Seattle Suggests Restrictions Are Working
Officials in Washington State worry that their gains are precarious, but they see evidence that containment strategies have lowered the rate of virus transmission.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/us/s ... -rate.html
I'd be curious to see the actual data that shows an infection rate (r0) value of 1.4 tied directly to the shutdown (it also sounds based on the wording in the article that the 1.4 may be the lowest number of several numbers - basically, the best-case scenario - I'd also like to know what the other numbers are and what the confidence intervals are). In other words - interesting read, but being the math/stats guy that I am, I'd like to see some actual data and methodology.



Mr.Transistor
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Re: Where's the evidence that "Stay at Home" slows the spread?

Post by Mr.Transistor » Mon Mar 30, 2020 5:04 pm

The schools, that place is an incubation ground for getting sick. Parents send their sick kid to school so they are not inconvenienced or to get them out of there hair so the teacher has to deal with their out of control sick kid.



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TC Talks
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Re: Where's the evidence that "Stay at Home" slows the spread?

Post by TC Talks » Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:22 pm

Let's try an experiment. BMW and Audio should head to 6 mile and socialize. Let's see how things work out.

You'd be helping science and helping get people back to work.


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Turkeytop
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Re: Where's the evidence that "Stay at Home" slows the spread?

Post by Turkeytop » Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:24 pm

If my avoidance of an activity results in something not happening, what kind of evidence can I present. You can't prove a negative.



bmw
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Re: Where's the evidence that "Stay at Home" slows the spread?

Post by bmw » Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:33 pm

Turkeytop wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:24 pm
If my avoidance of an activity results in something not happening, what kind of evidence can I present. You can't prove a negative.
You can compare states and compare countries with similar demographics but different public policies and at least loosely reach conclusions about whether said policies were effective or not.



bmw
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Re: Where's the evidence that "Stay at Home" slows the spread?

Post by bmw » Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:35 pm

TC Talks wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:22 pm
Let's try an experiment. BMW and Audio should head to 6 mile and socialize. Let's see how things work out.

You'd be helping science and helping get people back to work.
Yet another person who missed the point entirely. I don't need the the government to force me at gunpoint to make me avoid virus-infested areas.



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audiophile
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Re: Where's the evidence that "Stay at Home" slows the spread?

Post by audiophile » Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:00 pm

JackAttack FM wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:31 am
Coronavirus Slowdown in Seattle Suggests Restrictions Are Working
Officials in Washington State worry that their gains are precarious, but they see evidence that containment strategies have lowered the rate of virus transmission.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/us/s ... -rate.html
I'm sure I could show you in spreadsheet where this will only work if the lockdown continues forever. If the lockdown ends it will resume unless something else changes.


Ask not what your country can do FOR you; ask what they are about to do TO YOU!!

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Re: Where's the evidence that "Stay at Home" slows the spread?

Post by Rate This » Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:39 pm

audiophile wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 9:00 pm
JackAttack FM wrote:
Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:31 am
Coronavirus Slowdown in Seattle Suggests Restrictions Are Working
Officials in Washington State worry that their gains are precarious, but they see evidence that containment strategies have lowered the rate of virus transmission.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/us/s ... -rate.html
I'm sure I could show you in spreadsheet where this will only work if the lockdown continues forever. If the lockdown ends it will resume unless something else changes.
If enough or most people cannot transmit the virus They will be able to keep the spread slowed.



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