This is the United States of America, not China

[bmw]

I'm sorry, but this is too much. And I know the liberal flame artists in this forum will insist that if it were up to me that I'd be killing old people and loving every minute of it. Fine. You want to act like a jackass, act like a jackass.

BUT.

We are the United States of America. Not the USSR of the 1980s. Not communist China. We are a free country. And most alarming to me out of all of this, as it pertains to the long-term viability of our republic, is not this relatively non-deadly virus, but rather the degree to which Americans seem to be willing to so quickly give up their personal freedoms all in the name of security or in the name of saving lives.

I am thoroughly convinced at this point that what we are witnessing is nothing short of mass hysteria. There. I said it. And it is through mass hysteria that government usurps power. And right now, that power grabbing is occurring at an ALARMING rate.

I am perfectly fine with REASONABLE measures being taken. But the government telling small business owners that they no longer have control over what hours they can operate or what otherwise legal services they can offer - that is totalitarianism. And the current restrictions are NOTHING compared to what we're going to see 2 to 3 weeks out.

What many state governments are doing right now is, in my view, absolutely reckless.

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I'm sorry, but this is too much. And I know the liberal flame artists in this forum will insist that if it were up to me that I'd be killing old people and loving every minute of it. Fine. You want to act like a jackass, act like a jackass.

BUT.

We are the United States of America. Not the USSR of the 1980s. Not communist China. We are a free country. And most alarming to me out of all of this, as it pertains to the long-term viability of our republic, is not this relatively non-deadly virus, but rather the degree to which Americans seem to be willing to so quickly give up their personal freedoms all in the name of security or in the name of saving lives.

I am thoroughly convinced at this point that what we are witnessing is nothing short of mass hysteria. There. I said it. And it is through mass hysteria that government usurps power. And right now, that power grabbing is occurring at an ALARMING rate.

I am perfectly fine with REASONABLE measures being taken. But the government telling small business owners that they no longer have control over what hours they can operate or what otherwise legal services they can offer - that is totalitarianism. And the current restrictions are NOTHING compared to what we're going to see 2 to 3 weeks out.

What many state governments are doing right now is, in my view, absolutely reckless.

You understand that such measures are one of the reasons we won World War 2 right? That we were only able to get so much industrial production going after the government ordered companies to produce army stuff, rationed food, told people when and where to buy things, ran a propaganda campaign and regulated businesses operations and pricing. This is small potatoes compared to that overreach. Nobody batted an eye then either. Sometimes it’s about the greater good and not all about the individual until things return to normal. Start to worry when you see elected officials dining out or secretly running a store changing $500 for a single roll of toilet paper. Until then we are all in the same boat, government officials and civilians alike.

[bmw]

In my head, the threat this virus poses pales in comparison to the threat posed by the Axis Powers in WW2.

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In my head, the threat this virus poses pales in comparison to the threat posed by the Axis Powers in WW2.

And that’s fine but either condemn those actions too or shut up. If it does get out of control and 60-80% of us get it then it will overwhelm the healthcare system and become a serious problem... that’s what they are trying to prevent. Rather desperately I’d say. A little inconvenience now is worth avoiding a ton of trouble later. Having 5 million or 10 million hospitalized over even a 4-6 month period isn’t something we can handle...

[bmw]

If I actually believed that this was going to be short-lived, then I wouldn't have so much of a problem with it. But let's get real here. Projections I'm seeing suggest that the peak will come at the earliest in June, and in a worst case August. If we're 3-5 months from peak now, then that puts us 6-10 months from a time when we'll be on equivalent part of the right side of the bell curve. And then what if it re-occurs in the Fall? Next year?

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If I actually believed that this was going to be short-lived, then I wouldn't have so much of a problem with it. But let's get real here. Projections I'm seeing suggest that the peak will come at the earliest in June, and in a worst case August. If we're 3-5 months from peak now, then that puts us 6-10 months from a time when we'll be on equivalent part of the right side of the bell curve. And then what if it re-occurs in the Fall? Next year?

This is a problem we have to work on... we do have the first dose of vaccine administered to a volunteer in Washington State today...

I empathize with your frustration about how this is being handled. If we do get to 60-80 of the population having it that’s about 275,000,000 people. 20% of that (about the average hospitalization rate) is 55,000,000 would you suggest the healthcare or any other system could handle that? I think those are the calculations that are scaring the shit out of everybody. Having it happen even in a years time would still be 4.6 million a month... at those kinds of rates it won’t matter if 80% of people do fine. And that wonderful 3% mortality rate? 9-10 million deaths. These guys deal in worst case scenarios not pragmatic facts. But you plan for the worst and hope for the best. Those numbers are kinda scary...

[km1125]

If we could force the peak to be at late as August, then we'll all be doing fine. As the peak spreads out, it gives time for several things. First, the species starts building immunity with those who have already contracted it likely can't get it again (there have been some folks re-infected, but that appears very limited). Second, our medical supplies and medical systems have the ability to build capacity and could handle a higher peak later than earlier. Third, that allows time for treatments and inoculations to be developed. Even if those treatments or inoculations are only marginally effective, it's still a H*** 'win' given the scale of this whole thing. There are both in development and testing now. Fourth, if we minimize the uncertainty then the markets will stabilize, which will also allow for a quicker and better economic recovery as we come out of this.

[ftballfan]

They always give the worst case scenario projections to scare people.

China locked down in late January and cases have almost ceased now. If China had done their job earlier (as in recognizing there was a problem when it first came out rather than a couple of months after the fact), this wouldn't be a problem here or in Europe.

[Deleted User 13307]

As far as I understand it, the biggest concerns are:
- testing capacity right now, then
- treatment capacity, including staffing, ICU beds, ventilators, and so forth

I'm okay with the restrictions while we/they have a chance to rectify these glaring shortcomings in our health system. Once we get an understanding that we've taken enough steps to mitigate the capacity issues, I too will join you in decrying these restrictions.

Right now though, and if you've ever had to spend any kind of extended time with a loved one in a medical care facility you'll understand just how fragile the system really is, I'm doing my part and respecting what's being asked of us.

There are limits however. We must insist that the real problems - which are ones of capacity - are addressed as promptly as humanly possible. The problem really isn't going out to the bar for a cold one -- it's getting someone sick that might not have someplace to go should they need care. Let's attack the problem directly!

[bmw]

I don't know exactly how they're coming up with that 60-80% guesstimate, but I'm going to assume that it is based on the R0 value (how contagious the virus is) relative to other viruses and those viruses' infection rates. With the seasonal flu at a 10-15% seasonal infection rate and an R0 value of 1.3 (1.3 people infected per person infected), the 2.2 or so R0 value I've seen quoted for the Coronavirus obviously suggests a much quicker spread rate (would become exponential as it continues to spread), so 60-80% might be accurate IF people were just going about life as usual. But even WITHOUT government intervening, people are still voluntarily significantly changing their lifestyles in the short-term, meaning, in theory that R0 value should be much smaller. What we don't know is just how much government intervention is actually slowing the spread. Again, I'm speculating here, but my best guess is that the amount which this is slowing it down is not enough of a benefit to justify the loss of liberty and freedom.

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As far as I understand it, the biggest concerns are:
- testing capacity right now, then
- treatment capacity, including staffing, ICU beds, ventilators, and so forth

I'm okay with the restrictions while we/they have a chance to rectify these glaring shortcomings in our health system. Once we get an understanding that we've taken enough steps to mitigate the capacity issues, I too will join you in decrying these restrictions.

Right now though, and if you've ever had to spend any kind of extended time with a loved one in a medical care facility you'll understand just how fragile the system really is, I'm doing my part and respecting what's being asked of us.

There are limits however. We must insist that the real problems - which are ones of capacity - are addressed as promptly as humanly possible. The problem really isn't going out to the bar for a cold one -- it's getting someone sick that might not have someplace to go should they need care. Let's attack the problem directly!

In the debate last night Biden mentioned deploying the military to construct temporary medical facilities to care for people. This could be one idea.

[bmw]

As far as I understand it, the biggest concerns are:
- testing capacity right now, then
- treatment capacity, including staffing, ICU beds, ventilators, and so forth

I'm okay with the restrictions while we/they have a chance to rectify these glaring shortcomings in our health system. Once we get an understanding that we've taken enough steps to mitigate the capacity issues, I too will join you in decrying these restrictions.

Right now though, and if you've ever had to spend any kind of extended time with a loved one in a medical care facility you'll understand just how fragile the system really is, I'm doing my part and respecting what's being asked of us.

There are limits however. We must insist that the real problems - which are ones of capacity - are addressed as promptly as humanly possible. The problem really isn't going out to the bar for a cold one -- it's getting someone sick that might not have someplace to go should they need care. Let's attack the problem directly!

Fair enough. I'm willing to wait 2, maybe 3 weeks without complaining further. But if this goes much further than that, and/or if the restrictions continue to tighten (like, closing all non-essential businesses), then I'm going to have a REAL problem with how this is being handled.

[Rate This]

As far as I understand it, the biggest concerns are:
- testing capacity right now, then
- treatment capacity, including staffing, ICU beds, ventilators, and so forth

I'm okay with the restrictions while we/they have a chance to rectify these glaring shortcomings in our health system. Once we get an understanding that we've taken enough steps to mitigate the capacity issues, I too will join you in decrying these restrictions.

Right now though, and if you've ever had to spend any kind of extended time with a loved one in a medical care facility you'll understand just how fragile the system really is, I'm doing my part and respecting what's being asked of us.

There are limits however. We must insist that the real problems - which are ones of capacity - are addressed as promptly as humanly possible. The problem really isn't going out to the bar for a cold one -- it's getting someone sick that might not have someplace to go should they need care. Let's attack the problem directly!

Fair enough. I'm willing to wait 2, maybe 3 weeks without complaining further. But if this goes much further than that, and/or if the restrictions continue to tighten (like, closing all non-essential businesses), then I'm going to have a REAL problem with how this is being handled.

Unfortunately Fauci was on Meet The Press just yesterday saying that a 2-3 week total shutdown is something on the table.

[Deleted User 13307]

I think you're right to question the motive BMW. It's our 100% responsibility to ask these questions and hold these folks accountable for their decisions. And to also give them credit if it turns out to be they did the right thing.

Unfortunately, the mayhem is only getting started because of the way the numbers are reported. As this week goes on, the number of completed tests is going to rise by the hundred-fold, as will the the number of reported infections. We don't report "reality". Raw numbers are dangerous when they aren't given relative to the number tested vs. total population (and getting numbers on negative tests is way too hard).

Get ready... our numbers are going to make China and Italy look like child's play. Remember the Ohio head doctor that said they probably had 100,000 infected just in their state alone? That's probably more of a reality than anyone wants to know.

[bmw]

Give the government time. It won't be long before you can't step foot out of your house.