Trump Polls Jump!

[audiophile]

https://news.gallup.com/poll/284156/tru ... -best.aspx

I have to admit Trump is doing better than I expected.

[Rate This]

https://news.gallup.com/poll/284156/tru ... -best.aspx

I have to admit Trump is doing better than I expected.

And it’s STILL not 50%! And it’s just one poll... he just had one a few days ago that put him at 41.

[audiophile]

More Trump signs just went up.

[km1125]

Booker is talking in the Senate right now.... I'm guessing the TRUMP ratings are going up every second he's vocal!!

[Rate This]

More Trump signs just went up.

Are you in a city or a rural area?

[Bryce]

More importantly...

As Trump's job approval rating has improved, so has the image of the Republican Party. Now, 51% of Americans view the Republican Party favorably, up from 43% in September. It is the first time GOP favorability has exceeded 50% since 2005.

Meanwhile, 45% of Americans have a positive opinion of the Democratic Party, a slight dip from 48% in September.

[audiophile]

Democrats are now a laughing stock thanks to the impeachment and Iowa

[Rate This]

So today Reuters/Ipsos has him at:
Disapprove 55
Approve 42

And Economist / YouGov:
Disapprove 54
Approve 44

This is probably the reality and is consistent with everything else of late. That Gallup poll is an outlier more than likely.

[Rate This]

Democrats are now a laughing stock thanks to the impeachment and Iowa

Ok...
Trumps approval numbers haven’t gotten an impeachment bounce.. Quinnipiac has it at 53-43 disapprove, Monmouth has it at 51-44 disapprove and Monmouth finds people thinking the country is on the wrong track 57-38... that Gallup poll was an outlier.. something clearly isn’t right with it. If anything they are down slightly overall... not a good sign.

[bmw]

Rasmussen has him at 50 and Harris at 49. That's 3 recent polls at 49 or 50.

Also worth noting is that his RCP average has not dipped below 44 since before Christmas.

I'm starting to think his base has grown a bit. His floor used to be around 35. It might now be closer to 40.

[bmw]

I went back and looked at Obama's RCP average ratings at this time in his Presidency. He was in the low 40s to start year 2012 and he sat in the mid-high 40s most of the following summer, never cracking 50 before winning re-election quite soundly over Romney. Trump really is only a few points behind where Obama was right now.

[Rate This]

Rasmussen has him at 50 and Harris at 49. That's 3 recent polls at 49 or 50.

Also worth noting is that his RCP average has not dipped below 44 since before Christmas.

I'm starting to think his base has grown a bit. His floor used to be around 35. It might now be closer to 40.

I’ve posted 4 with over 10 point disapproval leads in the last week... Rasmussen has a widely known Republican house effect bias so I’m not even going to entertain inclusion of his polls. They simply aren’t worth anything. So that leaves Gallup and Harris as outliers. If we get 2 or 3 more of these H*** gaps they’ll really be outliers. As for the Obama results.. Trump is in the kind of territory where he probably cannot win. He needs to get to the high 40’s to really have a shot. 44 will not get it done.

If he’s getting any kind of impeachment bounce it’s a dead cat bounce the same as Clinton in 1999 but it really doesn’t look like it.

Looking at the RCP list... the Hill and Rasmussen polls stick out like a sore thumb and are grossly effecting the average.

[Bryce]

Rasmussen has him at 50 and Harris at 49. That's 3 recent polls at 49 or 50.

Also worth noting is that his RCP average has not dipped below 44 since before Christmas.

I'm starting to think his base has grown a bit. His floor used to be around 35. It might now be closer to 40.

I’ve posted 4 with over 10 point disapproval leads in the last week... Rasmussen has a widely known Republican house effect bias so I’m not even going to entertain inclusion of his polls. They simply aren’t worth anything. So that leaves Gallup and Harris as outliers. If we get 2 or 3 more of these H*** gaps they’ll really be outliers. As for the Obama results.. Trump is in the kind of territory where he probably cannot win. He needs to get to the high 40’s to really have a shot. 44 will not get it done.

If he’s getting any kind of impeachment bounce it’s a dead cat bounce the same as Clinton in 1999 but it really doesn’t look like it.

Looking at the RCP list... the Hill and Rasmussen polls stick out like a sore thumb and are grossly effecting the average.

Yup, your beloved polls sure nailed the Presidential race in 2016.

[Rate This]

Rasmussen has him at 50 and Harris at 49. That's 3 recent polls at 49 or 50.

Also worth noting is that his RCP average has not dipped below 44 since before Christmas.

I'm starting to think his base has grown a bit. His floor used to be around 35. It might now be closer to 40.

I’ve posted 4 with over 10 point disapproval leads in the last week... Rasmussen has a widely known Republican house effect bias so I’m not even going to entertain inclusion of his polls. They simply aren’t worth anything. So that leaves Gallup and Harris as outliers. If we get 2 or 3 more of these H*** gaps they’ll really be outliers. As for the Obama results.. Trump is in the kind of territory where he probably cannot win. He needs to get to the high 40’s to really have a shot. 44 will not get it done.

If he’s getting any kind of impeachment bounce it’s a dead cat bounce the same as Clinton in 1999 but it really doesn’t look like it.

Looking at the RCP list... the Hill and Rasmussen polls stick out like a sore thumb and are grossly effecting the average.

Yup, your beloved polls sure nailed the Presidential race in 2016.

They were unable to catch up to a major pivot towards Trump that occurred in the last week or so of that race. She won the popular vote by 2.2% so they oversold her by 3 maybe 4? Some of the states the polls were off on especially Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania but he barely eeked those out...

[Rate This]

3 new approval numbers from 2/12:

Reuters/Ipsos:
Disapprove 55 Approve 44

Politico/Morning Consult:
Disapprove 54 Approve 43

Economist/YouGov:
Disapprove 52 Approve 45

Won’t cut it.