My prediction was overly optimistic. I've addressed this already in another thread. But I'll still bet that when all is said and done, the number is closer to 2,000 than to the 200,000 or 1 million numbers that I'm seeing other people throw around.
is that speculation? I have spoken to 50 + businesses this week none are suicidal or near heart attack. Most are frustrated or disappointed.bmw wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:18 pmMy prediction was overly optimistic. I've addressed this already in another thread. But I'll still bet that when all is said and done, the number is closer to 2,000 than to the 200,000 or 1 million numbers that I'm seeing other people throw around.
As to businesses re-opening - again, the health consequences of steep economic decline will be severe. But nobody wants to talk about those. Suicide rates increase, heart attacks increase, more people can't afford healthcare, I could go on and on.
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/489 ... our-healthIn an academic article two years ago, Taiwanese researchers showed a direct link between unemployment and suicide, a link that can linger for up to three years after unemployment has already retreated. Even a brief recession has lasting consequences. In rough terms, each 1 percent rise in unemployment leads to one additional suicide for each 100,000 people. If unemployment increases by 5 percent in the current economic shutdown, that could mean some 16,500 additional suicides. A 10 percent spike in unemployment could mean some 30,000 additional suicides.
So time to do some math here. Per the CDC in 2019, 805,000 Americans have a heart attack every year. 94 million people are aged 50-75, and while exact numbers are hard to come by, it looks like roughly 45% of all heart attacks are people in this age group, or roughly 362,000.Among Americans between the ages of 50 and 75, a study in the Archives of Internal Medicine found the unemployed are 35 percent more likely to suffer a heart attack.
Financial ruin does indeed lead to increased suicide.Worth noting, however, is that while I can't find the entire Taiwanese study without paying for it, the abstract indicates that the suicide rates are somewhat mitigated by government welfare. Meaning, the stimulus package that was just passed will actually reduce suicide rates.
The comment mentioned was taken out of context, but admittedly was wrong and I apologized to YM. I made a mistake. However, a stupid retort on a message board that reaches dozens isnt quite the same as the words said by our president in the past few weeks. These statements will result in scores of people infected and dying. Yet you have no vitriol for him.bmw wrote: ↑Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:15 pmLooks like you just did, by saying that it'll be well over 200,000. At least I was being optimistic. You're predicting doom and gloom in numbers that I don't see happening, even given recent developments.
This from the person who not that long ago told a conservative poster in this forum who said he was having health issues to just kill himself already and to do it before November since Michigan is a swing state. And you have the nerve to call ME a disgusting individual after making a comment like that?
That's utter nonsense. I said right from day 1 that shutting down the country would have severe negative health consequences. I said that before Whitmer even shut down anything.
So you're perfectly fine with them having more heart attacks and committing more suicides? Karma I guess?I am less concerned by small business owners than the impacts their decisions have on their workers. Some business owners have been wonderful, others have not.
I see you've been posting in these forums for at least 15 years. In that time, at least a 500,000 Americans died from the seasonal flu. Did you ever once in those 15 years make one single remark in these forums about how sad you are about those lives lost? Just once? I continue to not get anybody explaining to me how the lives lost to Coronavirus are somehow more important than lives lost to other viruses.It seems that this situation is heartbreaking any angle you slice it. People who obstruct the safest way to get through this should be ridiculed and shamed when it's all done. But I sense we will all be so sad at the lost of humanity we won't care.
It’s not about lives lost. It’s about overrunning the healthcare system with an unfathomable surge of living people. This is all being done with that as goal #1. They know that left unchecked the healthcare system in the U.S. would collapse.bmw wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 1:48 pmThat's utter nonsense. I said right from day 1 that shutting down the country would have severe negative health consequences. I said that before Whitmer even shut down anything.
So you're perfectly fine with them having more heart attacks and committing more suicides? Karma I guess?I am less concerned by small business owners than the impacts their decisions have on their workers. Some business owners have been wonderful, others have not.
I see you've been posting in these forums for at least 15 years. In that time, at least a 500,000 Americans died from the seasonal flu. Did you ever once in those 15 years make one single remark in these forums about how sad you are about those lives lost? Just once? I continue to not get anybody explaining to me how the lives lost to Coronavirus are somehow more important than lives lost to other viruses.It seems that this situation is heartbreaking any angle you slice it. People who obstruct the safest way to get through this should be ridiculed and shamed when it's all done. But I sense we will all be so sad at the lost of humanity we won't care.
I wonder how quickly he’ll drop the Easter idea or how quick they’ll be gone?Lester The Nightfly wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:22 pmNo joy from the "Sunday Shows"
Fauci said “Looking at what we’re seeing now, I would say between 100,000 and 200,000 [deaths], but I don’t want to be held to that"
Brix said: “Every metro area should assume that they could have an outbreak equivalent to New York”
The question that no one seems willing to address is what metric will be used to determine when it's safe to start going about our business without fueling the fire. 14 days after no new cases? 10 days after a 80% drop? An immediate 50% drop?
I have to believe epidemiologists have charts and tables for this kind of thing. When conditions X, Y and Z are met it's no longer necessary to keep folks 'distancing' but I've not read or heard it expressed. Are we to rely on Trump*'s gut?
