2020 Senate Polls

[Turkeytop]

RT:

That isn’t true.

Oh boy, I am dying to here this.

The bad news is that he's dying. The good news is maybe he'll learn to spell hear before he takes his last breath.

[bmw]

RT's favorite polling organization has James +1

48 - James
47 - Peters

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6964.html

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RT's favorite polling organization has James +1

48 - James
47 - Peters

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... -6964.html

My favorite polling organization clearly didn’t adjust its model from 2016. When everybody else did.

[bmw]

Why would they adjust their 2016 model? Theirs was the most accurate model of any pollster. We've been through this.

We'll find out soon enough whether they stand alone again as the most accurate polling firm, or whether everybody else changed their models and got it right this time.

[Rate This]

Why would they adjust their 2016 model? Theirs was the most accurate model of any pollster. We've been through this.

We'll find out soon enough whether they stand alone again as the most accurate polling firm, or whether everybody else changed their models and got it right this time.

Everybody else adjusted for education which was the biggest problem (though let’s be clear they only missed Wisconsin) last time. And then Democratic enthusiasm is through the roof. If you don’t adjust for either your model isn't worth anything.

[bmw]

You think there's no enthusiasm on the Trump side? His approval among Republicans in the latest Gallup poll stands at an all-time high of 94 percent! That's certainly higher than it was in 2016 as 2016 saw a sizable number of self-proclaimed "never-Trump Republicans." Whether this increase will offset any losses seen among independents remains to be seen.

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You think there's no enthusiasm on the Trump side? His approval among Republicans in the latest Gallup poll stands at an all-time high of 94 percent! That's certainly higher than it was in 2016 as 2016 saw a sizable number of self-proclaimed "never-Trump Republicans." Whether this increase will offset any losses seen among independents remains to be seen.

Most of those never Trump Republicans have left the party. He’s operating with a smaller base now. The Democrats have a larger base to start with so if they are energized they have the advantage. This year they are so much more enthusiastic than 2016 that it should override whatever fervent support Trump has among Republicans.

The other thing is that he lost the popular vote by 2.8 million votes and effectively won with Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by 77,000 votes thus flipping those states to him because Hillary neglected them. We call this winning by the skin of your teeth. Biden isn’t that unpopular or that stupid. If Biden wins all 3 it’s over. That’s math.

[bmw]

Most of those never Trump Republicans have left the party. He’s operating with a smaller base now. The Democrats have a larger base to start with

Do you have any evidence to back this up? I'm not saying it's not true, but I have not seen any polls or otherwise to suggest this.

[Matt]

Why would they adjust their 2016 model? Theirs was the most accurate model of any pollster. We've been through this.

We'll find out soon enough whether they stand alone again as the most accurate polling firm, or whether everybody else changed their models and got it right this time.

Everybody else adjusted for education which was the biggest problem (though let’s be clear they only missed Wisconsin) last time. And then Democratic enthusiasm is through the roof. If you don’t adjust for either your model isn't worth anything.

Yeah, Democratic enthusiasm is through the roof. Joe Biden draws AT LEAST six people to every event.

[Rate This]

Why would they adjust their 2016 model? Theirs was the most accurate model of any pollster. We've been through this.

We'll find out soon enough whether they stand alone again as the most accurate polling firm, or whether everybody else changed their models and got it right this time.

Everybody else adjusted for education which was the biggest problem (though let’s be clear they only missed Wisconsin) last time. And then Democratic enthusiasm is through the roof. If you don’t adjust for either your model isn't worth anything.

Yeah, Democratic enthusiasm is through the roof. Joe Biden draws AT LEAST six people to every event.

His voters are more likely to distance and respect gathering limits. Trump has encouraged folks to ignore such things because he craves adulation. Risks be damned.

[Matt]

Most of those never Trump Republicans have left the party. He’s operating with a smaller base now. The Democrats have a larger base to start with

Do you have any evidence to back this up? I'm not saying it's not true, but I have not seen any polls or otherwise to suggest this.

He doesn't. The never Trump clowns at the R. Budd Dwyer Project are hack consultants who Trump has no use for. They didn't vote for him last time and won't this time. Many of us have anecdotal evidence of people that were lukewarm or anti-Trump conservatives last time are moving back toward the fold.

[Matt]

Why would they adjust their 2016 model? Theirs was the most accurate model of any pollster. We've been through this.

We'll find out soon enough whether they stand alone again as the most accurate polling firm, or whether everybody else changed their models and got it right this time.

Everybody else adjusted for education which was the biggest problem (though let’s be clear they only missed Wisconsin) last time. And then Democratic enthusiasm is through the roof. If you don’t adjust for either your model isn't worth anything.

Yeah, Democratic enthusiasm is through the roof. Joe Biden draws AT LEAST six people to every event.

His voters are more likely to distance and respect gathering limits. Trump has encouraged folks to ignore such things because he craves adulation. Risks be damned.

RT has a ready made excuse for everything!

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Most of those never Trump Republicans have left the party. He’s operating with a smaller base now. The Democrats have a larger base to start with

Do you have any evidence to back this up? I'm not saying it's not true, but I have not seen any polls or otherwise to suggest this.

Pretty good explanation here, though not the only one by any means:
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-t ... t-n1118521

Gerrymandering in states has given the Republicans outsized control in state legislatures and Democrats tend to be more apathetic than Republicans as well. Republicans tend to vote every election no matter what. Democrats... not so much.

[Rate This]

Why would they adjust their 2016 model? Theirs was the most accurate model of any pollster. We've been through this.

We'll find out soon enough whether they stand alone again as the most accurate polling firm, or whether everybody else changed their models and got it right this time.

Everybody else adjusted for education which was the biggest problem (though let’s be clear they only missed Wisconsin) last time. And then Democratic enthusiasm is through the roof. If you don’t adjust for either your model isn't worth anything.

Yeah, Democratic enthusiasm is through the roof. Joe Biden draws AT LEAST six people to every event.

His voters are more likely to distance and respect gathering limits. Trump has encouraged folks to ignore such things because he craves adulation. Risks be damned.

RT has a ready made excuse for everything!

Remember the sides thing you complained about before? Guess what you do day in and day out?

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Since 1976, the Pollsters have predicted a Democrat win in every election.

Here are the FACTS.

October 16

Emerson
North Carolina:
Challenger Cal Cunningham (D) 45 Incumbent Thom Tillis (R) 44 LV

The Hill / HarrisX
Michigan:
Incumbent Gary Peters (D) 50 Challenger John James (R) 43 LV

New York Times / Siena
Alaska:
Incumbent Dan Sullivan (R) 45 Challenger Al Gross (I) 37 LV