2020 Presidential Polls

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July 6

PPP
Maine:
Biden 53 Trump 42
Maybe this means Maine-2 is gonna flip over to blue? 11 seems like an awfully big lead for them to still split the districts...

[Matt]

You're 100 percent right, Rate This. I had a brain fart and forgot to adjust both sides of the equation, and I also failed to consider the 270 threshold required to win.

Sorry about that.

I am going to stick with my outcome prediction, however. I think Trump will barely eek out a victory.

I don’t exactly understand what you’re basing your prediction on... absolutely nothing points to this...

Your "polls" are bullshit. You diminish the one pollster that got Michigan right last time, because it is showing it as a dead heat.

[Rate This]

You're 100 percent right, Rate This. I had a brain fart and forgot to adjust both sides of the equation, and I also failed to consider the 270 threshold required to win.

Sorry about that.

I am going to stick with my outcome prediction, however. I think Trump will barely eek out a victory.

I don’t exactly understand what you’re basing your prediction on... absolutely nothing points to this...

Your "polls" are bullshit. You diminish the one pollster that got Michigan right last time, because it is showing it as a dead heat.

Which one? I haven’t seen anybody showing it as a dead heat. Generally the rule of thumb is to treat outliers as just that until you see a clear pattern develop... the current clear pattern is Biden by 5-8%...

[Matt]

Here you go: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/artic ... 43512.html

[Rate This]

Here you go: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/artic ... 43512.html

Trafalger is a generally unreliable pollster however. Additionally the other polling houses have made changes to their models in the wake of the 2016 election. Furthermore if his model is the same as 2016 and doesn’t reflect the hard left turn the suburbs are experiencing with 2020 looking a lot like 2018 he will be miles off. I’ll stick with my “polls” thanks.

I would admit that he did manage to get that one race correct. Good for him.

[bmw]

You can listen to polls, or you can listen to me - my track record in 2016 was 48 out of 50 states correct.

I stand by my prediction that no more than 4 states flip. And I STILL wouldn't rule out Minnesota flipping the other way. It'll be single digits.

[Rate This]

You can listen to polls, or you can listen to me - my track record in 2016 was 48 out of 50 states correct.

I stand by my prediction that no more than 4 states flip. And I STILL wouldn't rule out Minnesota flipping the other way. It'll be single digits.

Right now it looks like 8 or 9 points in Biden’s favor. That’s single digits. I’m doing this partly as counter programming to you. Why let you have all the fun?

Oh and there is absolutely no chance any blue states turn red. Not gonna happen. You got lucky once. A fluke. An anomaly. Nothing more and nothing less.

[Mr.Transistor]

There is no way in hell Trump will carry Michigan in 2020. In 2018 the MI GOP took a solid thumping and I don't see that changing, if anything it's going to be worse. Like RT says maybe not in these words, the suburban mom can't stand Trump.

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There is no way in hell Trump will carry Michigan in 2020. In 2018 the MI GOP took a solid thumping and I don't see that changing, if anything it's going to be worse. Like RT says maybe not in these words, the suburban mom can't stand Trump.

Exactly where I was going. Suburban women have been breaking more and more Democratic for some time. It propelled the victories of Slotkin and Stevens for example. It’s looking very likely they are re-elected at this point. Not a good omen for the GOP.

[UP906]

2018 brought us legal weed to the ballot. This in turn brought out a buttload of lib voters.

I think many of them are going to sit home once the whole "Creepy Joe" smear campaign has run its course.

[UP906]

Ultimately though, I feel like it hinges on Biden's running mate. If he goes hard left, he will lose.

And... sort of joking, sort of not joking... what happens if Kanye actually tries to mount a serious write in campaign? He seems goofy enough to steal a few votes.

[Rate This]

2018 brought us legal weed to the ballot. This in turn brought out a buttload of lib voters.

I think many of them are going to sit home once the whole "Creepy Joe" smear campaign has run its course.

Nothing Trump has tried pinning on Biden has stuck... this is a referendum on Trump and it’s not going well for him. The Democratic side is energized beyond belief to get rid of Trump and co. That’s what the polls seem to be capturing. And with independents heavily against the president it’s why we are seeing numbers like we are.

[UP906]

It's early... wait until Biden is forced to come out of hiding.

[Rate This]

It's early... wait until Biden is forced to come out of hiding.

At this point it doesn’t look like he’ll have to really... it seems to be working just fine and Trumps appearances aren’t going over well. The few times Biden has come out he’s done fine lately except for the bullshit selective editing the right has been employing.

[TC Talks]

The way Trump's acting these days, he's clinging on to his white supremacists.

None of his rhetoric in the past two weeks has done anything positive.