2020 Presidential Polls

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At least Americans are not in denial about the nation’s turmoil of the last three months. According to a Pew survey, 71 percent of Americans are angry about the state of the country right now and 66 percent are fearful. Only 17 percent are proud.

David Brooks NY Times

Very relevant statement. The important question is what are the 66% fearful of?
Is it the economy? Is it the virus? Is it the civil unrest? Which candidate do they feel can calm those fears?

From what I understand of the Pew survey in question it’s Biden by 10 so that should give an inkling as to people’s answers to the question on which candidate can calm fears...

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July 4

Trafalger Group (R)
Florida:
Biden 46 Trump 46
**This one is another wait and see... all the other recent polls of Florida have given us 5-10 point Biden leads.

[MWmetalhead]

There is zero chance of Trump losing in TX or AZ. I also think he wins North Carolina and Florida narrowly. Rust belt states are toss ups except Illinois, which will definitely vote Biden. I think Colorado is in the bag for Biden.

Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Virginia, Pennsylvania, the aforementioned Florida & North Carolina, Missouri, Louisiana, Nevada, Iowa, and Kentucky are the states to watch, IMO.

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There is zero chance of Trump losing in TX or AZ. I also think he wins North Carolina and Florida narrowly. Rust belt states are toss ups except Illinois, which will definitely vote Biden. I think Colorado is in the bag for Biden.

Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Virginia, Pennsylvania, the aforementioned Florida & North Carolina, Missouri, Louisiana, Nevada, Iowa, and Kentucky are the states to watch, IMO.

Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is basically the election. I don’t think people quite appreciate how mathematically behind the 8 ball the Trump campaign truly is...

Arizona is definitely in play, the momentum that started in 2018 and got the Sinema elected Senator there looks to poised to return and put Mark Kelly in.. something is in the air there... Texas I doubt it’ll be any closer than Beto had it in 2018. Louisiana is solid red and Virginia is solid blue so those are off the table now. Kentucky will be red as will Missouri. Colorado has completed its switch from red to blue.

[MWmetalhead]

Kentucky still has a significant economic reliance on the coal industry, which obviously favors Trump.

Virginia is definitely leaning blue.

If I had to pick five crucial states to watch - they would be Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida.

Where I will disagree with you is your claim of Trump being so far behind the 8 ball mathematically. If the election were held today, I'd say it is a complete toss up in terms of who wins the electoral vote.

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Kentucky still has a significant economic reliance on the coal industry, which obviously favors Trump.

Virginia is definitely leaning blue.

If I had to pick five crucial states to watch - they would be Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida.

Where I will disagree with you is your claim of Trump being so far behind the 8 ball mathematically. If the election were held today, I'd say it is a complete toss up in terms of who wins the electoral vote.

I’m referring to the fact that he won Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by a combined 78,000 votes. If he loses those 3 states he will not win. Period. That’s extremely precarious math in my view.

[MWmetalhead]

Those states represented 46 electoral votes in 2016 and will represent the same number of electoral votes this year. Trump won by 77 electoral votes.

He could lose all three of those states PLUS Florida and still have two electoral votes to spare!

If I had to make a prediction straight-up this minute in terms of who would win the electoral vote, I'd say Trump - by fewer than 20 votes.

Biden would win the popular vote.

[Turkeytop]

Those states represented 46 electoral votes in 2016 and will represent the same number of electoral votes this year. Trump won by 77 electoral votes.

He could lose all three of those states PLUS Florida and still have two electoral votes to spare!

If I had to make a prediction straight-up this minute in terms of who would win the electoral vote, I'd say Trump - by fewer than 20 votes.

Biden would win the popular vote.

Even with those 46 votes added to the count for his opponent, would he still have enough to win?

[Rate This]

Those states represented 46 electoral votes in 2016 and will represent the same number of electoral votes this year. Trump won by 77 electoral votes.

He could lose all three of those states PLUS Florida and still have two electoral votes to spare!

If I had to make a prediction straight-up this minute in terms of who would win the electoral vote, I'd say Trump - by fewer than 20 votes.

Biden would win the popular vote.

Even with those 46 votes added to the count for his opponent, would he still have enough to win?

No TT he would lose if he lost those 46 electoral votes 278-260.

[Rate This]

Those states represented 46 electoral votes in 2016 and will represent the same number of electoral votes this year. Trump won by 77 electoral votes.

He could lose all three of those states PLUS Florida and still have two electoral votes to spare!

If I had to make a prediction straight-up this minute in terms of who would win the electoral vote, I'd say Trump - by fewer than 20 votes.

Biden would win the popular vote.

You did that math way wrong. Hillary got 232... adding the 46 to that total is a 278-260 Biden win. Adding on Florida and you fully reverse the 2016 race at 306-232 Biden.

Trumps 77 electoral-vote margin doesn’t matter. His 36 electoral-vote margin over 270 is what matters.

The way he’s being slapped around in the polls... he’d be lucky to crack 170 let alone 270 if we use them as a guide. He’s currently set up to be completely blown out.

[MWmetalhead]

You're 100 percent right, Rate This. I had a brain fart and forgot to adjust both sides of the equation, and I also failed to consider the 270 threshold required to win.

Sorry about that.

I am going to stick with my outcome prediction, however. I think Trump will barely eek out a victory.

[bmw]

This would be a fun result:

[TC Talks]

I think AZ and PA are swapped.

[bmw]

I was just showing one viable road to 269.

The thing is, given the number of elector defections last year, something closer to 280 is probably what will be needed to outright win this year, so there's quite a few combinations of final outcomes that could cause trouble.

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You're 100 percent right, Rate This. I had a brain fart and forgot to adjust both sides of the equation, and I also failed to consider the 270 threshold required to win.

Sorry about that.

I am going to stick with my outcome prediction, however. I think Trump will barely eek out a victory.

I don’t exactly understand what you’re basing your prediction on... absolutely nothing points to this...