2020 Presidential Polls

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May 19

OH Predictive Insights
Arizona:
Biden 50 Trump 43

Roanoke College
Virginia:
Biden 51 Trump 39

East Tennessee State
Tennessee:
Trump 53 Biden 36

If Arizona goes blue Trump is in some trouble.

[screen glare]

Cuomo says no thanks now to the dem nomination. Wait ‘til convention. A lot can happen between now and then.

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Cuomo says no thanks now to the dem nomination. Wait ‘til convention. A lot can happen between now and then.

With Biden up where it counts why would they change? You make no sense.

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May 20

Quinnipiac
General Election:
Biden 50 Trump 39

CNBC
General Election:
Biden 48 Trump 45

Rasmussen Reports
General Election:
Biden 48 Trump 43

Economist / YouGov
General Election:
Biden 47 Trump 42

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FOX News
General Election:
Biden 48 Trump 40

The Hill / HarrisX
General Election:
Biden 42 Trump 41

PPP (D)
Kentucky:
Trump 55 Biden 39

KGTV-TV San Diego/ Survey USA
California:
Biden 58 Trump 30

KING-TV Seattle/ Survey USA
Washington State:
Biden 57 Trump 31

[Mr.Transistor]

I saw Carville told one of the guys from the Howard Stern show- might have been that stuttering John that Biden is going to kick Trump's fat ass this Novemeber. Right now I believe that to be true.

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Gonna be changing sites that I use for polls starting today. Real Clear Politics isn't providing as much data as is available. So I'll be using the data that appears on elctoral-vote.com which is posted in the mornings and I can just throw it up there all at once instead of hoping it's all posted there which has become the case with RCP lately. Wanted to be transparent about that...

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Arizona:
Biden 45 Trump 41

Florida:
Biden 45 Trump 43

Michigan:
Biden 47 Trump 39

North Carolina:
Biden 45 Trump 43

Pennsylvania:
Biden 48 Trump 39

Wisconsin:
Biden 48 Trump 38

PPP
Michigan:
Biden 51 Trump 45

Neighberhood Research And Media
North Carolina:
Biden 42 Trump 42

[Deleted User 12047]

Rate This - while I appreciate your efforts, these polls are not good predictions of the final results of the 2020 Presidential election. There is just one overriding factor that will come into play - voter turnout. It's not undecided voters, it's those who can vote actually deciding TO vote. The President knows this, and that plays into his strategy - the less numbers who vote the better chance for him. The former VP's racial faux pas is also a ham handed way to encourage voters to head to the polls as the more voters, the better chance for his party. Who's polling that?

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Rate This - while I appreciate your efforts, these polls are not good predictions of the final results of the 2020 Presidential election. There is just one overriding factor that will come into play - voter turnout. It's not undecided voters, it's those who can vote actually deciding TO vote. The President knows this, and that plays into his strategy - the less numbers who vote the better chance for him. The former VP's racial faux pas is also a ham handed way to encourage voters to head to the polls as the more voters, the better chance for his party. Who's polling that?

Models are being adjusted all the time to account for a variety of factors... registered voters vs. likely voters and those groups change and evolve over time. The phrase “turnout election“ isn’t new or something... so the answer to that question is... everybody... that’s why Trumps support is so consistent... his base is energized. Biden’s support is based on throwing Trump out... arguably a bigger and more energized group at the moment. Your criticism here is baffling to me. If they ask “are you likely to vote” that captures the energy to which you are speaking of and it changes as new things come up as the election draws closer. That’s the way it’s always worked.. there isn’t anything new or unusual here... so the polls absolutely can capture it accurately...

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May 24

PPP
Washington State:
Biden 59 Trump 37

[Deleted User 12047]

That’s the way it’s always worked.. there isn’t anything new or unusual here... s

You've captured my thought in reverse exactly -- there IS something new.

What if everything you think you know about politics is wrong?

I'd be curious as to your reaction after reading this. And please I'm not trying to be critical, you seem like a reasoned and level headed poster - please stick around and post what you feel is right and informative.

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That’s the way it’s always worked.. there isn’t anything new or unusual here... s

You've captured my thought in reverse exactly -- there IS something new.

What if everything you think you know about politics is wrong?

I'd be curious as to your reaction after reading this. And please I'm not trying to be critical, you seem like a reasoned and level headed poster - please stick around and post what you feel is right and informative.

I don’t disagree with it but I would note that the polls are pointing in the same direction as her model. So I think they have been able to adjust things in the wake of 2016. We’ll have to see how it ends up but her prediction is basically what I think will happen as well.

[Deleted User 12047]

More interesting reading... I'm not as sure as you that traditional political polling will predict anything..

https://www.niskanencenter.org/negative ... elections/

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More interesting reading... I'm not as sure as you that traditional political polling will predict anything..

https://www.niskanencenter.org/negative ... elections/

Why though? It’s lining up with everything you’ve posted... 2016 was not really all that bad when you figure there’s a 3% or so margin of error... so states like Michigan Wisconsin and Pennsylvania all ended up well within that margin of error even if they called the wrong horse as the winner. It isn’t that exact of a science... if anything people not swinging should be even easier to poll, not harder and the polls would be consistent which they have been so far...

[Matt]

Gonna be changing sites that I use for polls starting today. Real Clear Politics isn't providing as much data as is available. So I'll be using the data that appears on elctoral-vote.com which is posted in the mornings and I can just throw it up there all at once instead of hoping it's all posted there which has become the case with RCP lately. Wanted to be transparent about that...

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Arizona:
Biden 45 Trump 41

Florida:
Biden 45 Trump 43

Michigan:
Biden 47 Trump 39

North Carolina:
Biden 45 Trump 43

Pennsylvania:
Biden 48 Trump 39

Wisconsin:
Biden 48 Trump 38

PPP
Michigan:
Biden 51 Trump 45

Neighberhood Research And Media
North Carolina:
Biden 42 Trump 42

This thread has jumped th shark. Electoral-vote.com is the hackiest left wing site.