2020 Presidential Polls

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Is she digging deep for Indian artifacts? I hope she pulled a permit, and did section 106 analysis, and checked with the state historic commission.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/1 ... 020-115047

Part of me really wants to just say “oh shut up”... I’ll hold back. Your quip isn’t remotely funny though.

Anyways...
February 14

University of Texas / Texas Tribune
Texas:
Trump 47 Sanders 45
Trump 46 Buttigieg 41
Trump 46 Klobuchar 41
Trump 47 Biden 43
Trump 47 Warren 44

Texas has been slowly trending purple... maybe this is the year it really becomes competitive.

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February 18

NPR/PBS/Marist

General Election:
Sanders 48 Trump 45
Buttigieg 47 Trump 45
Klobuchar 47 Trump 45
Bloomberg 48 Trump 44
Biden 50 Trump 44
Warren 47 Trump 46

[hanson]

February 18

University of Texas / Texas Tribune

General Election:
Sanders 49 Trump 44
Buttigieg 48 Trump 43
Klobuchar 48 Trump 44
Bloomberg 49 Trump 43
Biden 51 Trump 43
Warren 48 Trump 45

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February 18

NBC News / Wall Street Journal

General Election:
Sanders 50 Trump 46
Buttigieg 48 Trump 44
Klobuchar 48 Trump 45
Bloomberg 50 Trump 43
Biden 52 Trump 44

February 19

Emerson

General Election:
Sanders 51 Trump 49
Trump 51 Buttigieg 49
Trump 51 Klobuchar 49
Trump 51 Bloomberg 49
Trump 52 Biden 48

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February 19

ABC News / Washington Post

General Election:
Sanders 51 Trump 45
Biden 52 Trump 45
Bloomberg 50 Trump 45
Buttigieg 49 Trump 46
Klobuchar 48 Trump 46
Warren 48 Trump 47

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Mixed bag today.. something for everybody. You’re welcome Trumpists...

February 20

Quinnipiac
Wisconsin:
Trump 50 Sanders 43
Trump 49 Buttigieg 41
Trump 49 Biden 42
Trump 49 Bloomberg 41
Trump 51 Warren 41
Trump 50 Klobuchar 39

I find it really hard to believe that Wisconsin has swung THAT far to the right... especially given the results in Michigan and Pennsylvania from the same pollster. Something seems out of whack with that.

Michigan:
Sanders 48 Trump 43
Buttigieg 45 Trump 44
Biden 47 Trump 43
Bloomberg 47 Trump 42
Warren 45 Trump 43
Klobuchar 45 Trump 44

Pennsylvania:
Sanders 48 Trump 44
Buttigieg 47 Trump 43
Biden 50 Trump 42
Bloomberg 48 Trump 42
Warren 47 Trump 44
Klobuchar 49 Trump 42

University of North Florida
Florida:
Sanders 48 Trump 48
Trump 49 Buttigieg 45
Biden 49 Trump 48
Bloomberg 50 Trump 44
Trump 47 Warren 47
Trump 48 Klobuchar 44

[bmw]

Fun fact - if the electoral map remains the same as last year EXCEPT that MI and PA revert to the Dems (but Wisconsin stays red), then Trump would win 270-268.

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Fun fact - if the electoral map remains the same as last year EXCEPT that MI and PA revert to the Dems (but Wisconsin stays red), then Trump would win 270-268.

Thanks for doing the math... I knew it was in that ballpark... can you imagine the Democrat winning the popular vote by 3-4 million and Trump winning 270-268... I think there would probably be some violence...

[bmw]

Even crazier - if Maine CD2 flipped as well, it would be 269-269 and would go to the House of Representatives to decide.

[Deleted User 12047]

Even crazier - if Maine CD2 flipped as well, it would be 269-269 and would go to the House of Representatives to decide.

And it would go to the existing House, not the newly elected House, if I remember my senior year civics class.

[Bryce]

The vote would go to the newly elected House of Representatives. The vote is done by Congressional delegations by State. Each State delegation receives one vote with 26 needed to elect.

Unless things change a lot more than I think they will, the Democrats will only control 22 State Delegations. In a case of a tie, you will most likely have a President Trump.

I believe the Senate picks the VP.

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The vote would go to the newly elected House of Representatives. The vote is done by Congressional delegations by State. Each State delegation receives one vote with 26 needed to elect.

Unless things change a lot more than I think they will, the Democrats will only control 22 State Delegations. In a case of a tie, you will most likely have a President Trump.

I believe the Senate picks the VP.

If the Democrats get the senate we could have the fun of a hybrid administration... Trump and a Democrat... some schadenfreude and maybe put Hillary or the Democratic nominee in as veep? Might as well have fun with such an insane scenario... nobody would come out happy in a close election like that.

[Lester The Nightfly]

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If you can, I'd be curious to see what you're able to pull up for Arizona. What I've seen is fairly old (January-ish). The reason I ask is I think it's going to be much closer than folks would like to believe for Trump*, if not an outright nail-biter. A couple of reason why is Kelly is clocking McSally by some estimates as much as 10 pts in Maicopa & Pima counties, which in reality are the only ones that count in terms of impact. Additionally Phoenix was the fastest growing city in America for 2017-2018 (noting that was after the 2016 election) with a lot of those folks coming in from SoCal and Chicagoland for advanced industry jobs in tech, financial services and healthcare/bioscience. They are still pouring in and they're not all "red'.

While McSally ain't Trump*, they are joined at the hip politically. I really believe any pseudo poli-sci wonks that don't give pause (i.e. zeroing in on the states that gave Trump* the win in '16) that Arizona is in the maybe/maybe not category might find themselves a little embarrassed in November.

YMMV and BTW - Appreciate the work you're putting into these updates

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If you can, I'd be curious to see what you're able to pull up for Arizona. What I've seen is fairly old (January-ish). The reason I ask is I think it's going to be much closer than folks would like to believe for Trump*, if not an outright nail-biter. A couple of reason why is Kelly is clocking McSally by some estimates as much as 10 pts in Maicopa & Pima counties, which in reality are the only ones that count in terms of impact. Additionally Phoenix was the fastest growing city in America for 2017-2018 (noting that was after the 2016 election) with a lot of those folks coming in from SoCal and Chicagoland for advanced industry jobs in tech, financial services and healthcare/bioscience. They are still pouring in and they're not all "red'.

While McSally ain't Trump*, they are joined at the hip politically. I really believe any pseudo poli-sci wonks that don't give pause (i.e. zeroing in on the states that gave Trump* the win in '16) that Arizona is in the maybe/maybe not category might find themselves a little embarrassed in November.

YMMV and BTW - Appreciate the work you're putting into these updates

Thanks Les’.. I haven’t seen anything on Arizona unfortunately but your basic premise is correct. It is rapidly trending purple and Kelly is favored to beat McSally at this point. If it’s 10 points then Trump is in trouble. Ticket splitting is a bygone thing mostly these days.

The most recent I can find is from PPP (D) dated 1/2-1/4. No doubt that will change very soon as we really ramp this up.

[bmw]

For what it is worth, PredictIt has Kelly favored over McSally by nearly a 2:1 margin, but Trump is favored in the general election by nearly the same margin.

Arizona will NOT turn blue in the Presidential election this year. You can take that one to the bank.

I'm admittedly less confident in the Senate race.