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2020 Presidential Polls
Re: 2020 Presidential Polls
September 27
ABC News / Washington Post
General Election:
Biden 54 Trump 44 LV Head to Head
Biden 49 Trump 43 LV Third Parties Added
Independents:
Biden 59 Trump 37 LV
Independent Women:
Biden 77 Trump 20 LV
Just for comparison here’s the same point in 2016:
Clinton 49 Trump 47 Head to Head
Clinton 46 Trump 44 Third Parties Added
That’s just about spot on with the final result of Clinton +2.1%.
New York Times / Siena
General Election:
Biden 49 Trump 41
NBC News / Marist
Michigan:
Biden 52 Trump 44 LV
Wisconsin:
Biden 54 Trump 44 LV
CBS News / YouGov
North Carolina:
Biden 48 Trump 46 LV
South Carolina:
Trump 52 Biden 42 LV
Georgia:
Trump 47 Biden 46 LV
TIPP
Pennsylvania:
Biden 50 Trump 45 LV
Rasmussen Reports
Nevada:
Biden 49 Trump 48 LV
ABC News / Washington Post
General Election:
Biden 54 Trump 44 LV Head to Head
Biden 49 Trump 43 LV Third Parties Added
Independents:
Biden 59 Trump 37 LV
Independent Women:
Biden 77 Trump 20 LV
Just for comparison here’s the same point in 2016:
Clinton 49 Trump 47 Head to Head
Clinton 46 Trump 44 Third Parties Added
That’s just about spot on with the final result of Clinton +2.1%.
New York Times / Siena
General Election:
Biden 49 Trump 41
NBC News / Marist
Michigan:
Biden 52 Trump 44 LV
Wisconsin:
Biden 54 Trump 44 LV
CBS News / YouGov
North Carolina:
Biden 48 Trump 46 LV
South Carolina:
Trump 52 Biden 42 LV
Georgia:
Trump 47 Biden 46 LV
TIPP
Pennsylvania:
Biden 50 Trump 45 LV
Rasmussen Reports
Nevada:
Biden 49 Trump 48 LV
Re: 2020 Presidential Polls
Rate This:Mark Elliott wrote: ↑Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:38 pm.... The second problem is response rates - people don't talk to pollsters like they used to. With caller ID, cell phones, etc. samples are no longer representative of the general public ....
Does what Mark saying re-affirm what I was saying to you a month or so ago?
Appreciate the diligence you put into your poll reporting.
But like Mark says, telephone polls are not an accurate depiction of how folks actually feel.
I'll say what I said back then:
A conservative is more likely to see an unknown number and think "I don't know who that is, they can leave a message".
A liberal is more likely to not only answer an unknown number, but call it back if they see they missed a call.
Re: 2020 Presidential Polls
You are misunderstanding completely how polling works. There is no shy effect. It doesn’t exist and pollsters correct for any lack of responses... mostly by continuing to call until they get the proper amount of Republicans. So it takes longer but it’s not less accurate. Trump is way behind at this point and that’s consistent no matter the potential lean or not of a pollster.Mike Oxlong wrote: ↑Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:41 amRate This:Mark Elliott wrote: ↑Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:38 pm.... The second problem is response rates - people don't talk to pollsters like they used to. With caller ID, cell phones, etc. samples are no longer representative of the general public ....
Does what Mark saying re-affirm what I was saying to you a month or so ago?
Appreciate the diligence you put into your poll reporting.
But like Mark says, telephone polls are not an accurate depiction of how folks actually feel.
I'll say what I said back then:
A conservative is more likely to see an unknown number and think "I don't know who that is, they can leave a message".
A liberal is more likely to not only answer an unknown number, but call it back if they see they missed a call.
Polling is a science. They don’t just shrug and get fewer Republicans and give up. As for your description of how liberals and conservatives behave, especially of liberals... you are Still an imbecile. Political persuasion has nothing to do with whether you answer a call or not.
Re: 2020 Presidential Polls
September 28
Monmouth
General Election:
Biden 50 Trump 45 LV Head to Head
Biden 50 Trump 45 LV Third Parties Added
The Hill / HarrisX
General Election:
Biden 45 Trump 40 RV
Trafalger Group
Wisconsin:
Biden 48 Trump 45 LV
New York Times / Siena
Pennsylvania:
Biden 49 Trump 40 LV
Nebraska CD-2:
Biden 48 Trump 41 LV
Susquehanna
Florida:
Biden 46 Trump 43 LV
PPP
Texas:
Biden 48 Trump 48 V
Meredith College
North Carolina:
Biden 46 Trump 45 RV
University of Nevada Las Vegas / Lee Business School
Nevada:
Biden 46 Trump 41 LV
Harstad Strategies
Alaska:
Trump 47 Biden 46 LV
Univision
Latinos General Election:
Biden 66 Trump 24 RV
Latinos Texas:
Biden 66 Trump 25 RV
Latinos Arizona:
Biden 65 Trump 25 RV
Latinos Florida:
Biden 52 Trump 36 RV
Monmouth
General Election:
Biden 50 Trump 45 LV Head to Head
Biden 50 Trump 45 LV Third Parties Added
The Hill / HarrisX
General Election:
Biden 45 Trump 40 RV
Trafalger Group
Wisconsin:
Biden 48 Trump 45 LV
New York Times / Siena
Pennsylvania:
Biden 49 Trump 40 LV
Nebraska CD-2:
Biden 48 Trump 41 LV
Susquehanna
Florida:
Biden 46 Trump 43 LV
PPP
Texas:
Biden 48 Trump 48 V
Meredith College
North Carolina:
Biden 46 Trump 45 RV
University of Nevada Las Vegas / Lee Business School
Nevada:
Biden 46 Trump 41 LV
Harstad Strategies
Alaska:
Trump 47 Biden 46 LV
Univision
Latinos General Election:
Biden 66 Trump 24 RV
Latinos Texas:
Biden 66 Trump 25 RV
Latinos Arizona:
Biden 65 Trump 25 RV
Latinos Florida:
Biden 52 Trump 36 RV
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls
I do both, depending on the day.Mike Oxlong wrote: ↑Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:41 amRate This:Mark Elliott wrote: ↑Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:38 pm.... The second problem is response rates - people don't talk to pollsters like they used to. With caller ID, cell phones, etc. samples are no longer representative of the general public ....
Does what Mark saying re-affirm what I was saying to you a month or so ago?
Appreciate the diligence you put into your poll reporting.
But like Mark says, telephone polls are not an accurate depiction of how folks actually feel.
I'll say what I said back then:
A conservative is more likely to see an unknown number and think "I don't know who that is, they can leave a message".
A liberal is more likely to not only answer an unknown number, but call it back if they see they missed a call.
They/them, non-binary and proud.
Remember that “2000 Mules” was concocted by a circus of elephants.
The right needs to stop worry about what’s between people’s legs. Instead, they should focus on what’s between their ears.
Audacity sucks.
Remember that “2000 Mules” was concocted by a circus of elephants.
The right needs to stop worry about what’s between people’s legs. Instead, they should focus on what’s between their ears.
Audacity sucks.
Re: 2020 Presidential Polls
September 29
Harvard-Harris
General Election:
Biden 47 Trump 45 LV
JTN / RMG Research
General Election:
Biden 51 Trump 45 LV
Morning Consult
General Election:
Biden 51 Trump 44 LV
JLS Partners Polls
General Election:
Biden 51 Trump 41 LV
Susquehanna
Wisconsin:
Biden 48 Trump 46 LV
Arizona:
Biden 47 Trump 47 LV
Florida:
Biden 46 Trump 43 LV
UMass Lowell
Texas:
Trump 50 Biden 46 LV
North Carolina:
Trump 49 Biden 48 LV
New Hampshire:
Biden 53 Trump 44 LV
Quinnipiac
Georgia:
Biden 50 Trump 47 LV
Rasmussen Reports
New Hampshire:
Biden 56 Trump 42 LV
ABC News / Washington Post
Pennsylvania:
Biden 54 Trump 45 LV
TIPP
Pennsylvania:
Biden 50 Trump 45 LV
Survey Monkey
Ohio:
Biden 50 Trump 48 LV
Civiqs
Georgia:
Biden 50 Trump 47 LV
Re: 2020 Presidential Polls
September 30
Trafalgar Group
Michigan:
Biden 49 Trump 47 LV
Economist / YouGov
General Election:
Biden 50 Trump 42 LV
Reuters / Ipsos
General Election:
Biden 51 Trump 42 LV
Rasmussen Reports
General Election:
Biden 51 Trump 43 LV
New Hampshire:
Biden 56 Trump 42 LV
USC Dornslife
General Election:
Biden 51 Trump 43 LV
Qriously
General Election:
Biden 50 Trump 40 LV
UNH
New Hampshire:
Biden 53 Trump 44 LV
Quinnipiac
South Carolina:
Trump 48 Biden 47 LV
KGTV-TV San Diego / SurveyUSA
California:
Biden 59 Trump 32 LV
WHO-TV Des Moines, Iowa / RABA Research
Iowa:
Biden 48 Trump 46 LV
Civiqs
Kansas:
Trump 52 Biden 42 LV
Re: 2020 Presidential Polls
You know it's bad when Trump struggles in South Carolina. He's a pariah that will drag down Graham.
The Quinnipiac poll found Trump at 48 percent and Biden at 47 percent among likely voters in South Carolina, down from the president's 6-point advantage in the same poll from two weeks ago.
The survey from Quinnipiac University also finds Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) tied with Democrat Jaime Harrison in a race that could have enormous consequences for which party controls the Senate next year.
"There hasn't been a Democrat elected to the Senate from South Carolina since 1998," said Quinnipiac University pollster Tim Malloy. "Outspent and labeled by critics as an apologist for President Trump, Lindsey Graham is facing the fight of his political life."
“The more you can increase fear of drugs, crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.”
― Noam Chomsky
Posting Content © 2024 TC Talks Holdings LP.
― Noam Chomsky
Posting Content © 2024 TC Talks Holdings LP.
Re: 2020 Presidential Polls
October 1
ALG Research
Michigan:
Biden 52 Trump 44 LV
Ohio:
Biden 48 Trump 46 LV
Pennsylvania:
Biden 50 Trump 44 LV
CNBC / Change Research
General Election:
Biden 54 Trump 41 LV
Reuters/Ipsos
General Election:
Biden 50 Trump 41 LV
WSB-TV Atlanta / Landmark
Georgia:
Biden 47 Trump 45 LV
Emerson
New Hampshire:
Biden 52 Trump 45 LV
Civiqs
Oregon:
Biden 56 Trump 39 LV
Data For Progress
Arizona:
Biden 49 Trump 45 LV
South Carolina:
Trump 47 Biden 43 LV
Maine:
Biden 53 Trump 39 LV
Iowa:
Trump 50 Biden 45 LV
Re: 2020 Presidential Polls
October 2
IBD / TIPP
General Election:
Biden 49 Trump 46 LV
The Hill / HarrisX
General Election:
Biden 47 Trump 40 LV
USA Today / Suffolk
Arizona:
Biden 50 Trump 46 LV
Siena
New York:
Biden 61 Trump 29 LV
Hart Research Associates
Georgia:
Biden 50 Trump 47 LV
North Carolina:
Biden 49 Trump 47 LV
Iowa:
Trump 49 Biden 47 LV
Ohio:
Trump 49 Biden 47 LV
Texas:
Trump 49 Biden 47 LV
Re: 2020 Presidential Polls
Vegas...
The PredictIt Currently Biden 65, Trump 38.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detai ... l-election
The PredictIt Currently Biden 65, Trump 38.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detai ... l-election
“The more you can increase fear of drugs, crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.”
― Noam Chomsky
Posting Content © 2024 TC Talks Holdings LP.
― Noam Chomsky
Posting Content © 2024 TC Talks Holdings LP.
Re: 2020 Presidential Polls
October 3
PPP
Michigan:
Biden 50 Trump 44 V
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Michigan:
Biden 51 Trump 42 LV
Arizona:
Biden 47 Trump 44 LV
Florida:
Biden 48 Trump 43 LV
Georgia:
Biden 45 Trump 44 LV
North Carolina:
Biden 47 Trump 45 LV
Pennsylvania:
Biden 50 Trump 44 LV
Wisconsin:
Biden 48 Trump 43 LV
New York Times / Siena
Florida:
Biden 47 Trump 42 LV
Pennsylvania:
Biden 49 Trump 42 LV
PPP
Michigan:
Biden 50 Trump 44 V
Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Michigan:
Biden 51 Trump 42 LV
Arizona:
Biden 47 Trump 44 LV
Florida:
Biden 48 Trump 43 LV
Georgia:
Biden 45 Trump 44 LV
North Carolina:
Biden 47 Trump 45 LV
Pennsylvania:
Biden 50 Trump 44 LV
Wisconsin:
Biden 48 Trump 43 LV
New York Times / Siena
Florida:
Biden 47 Trump 42 LV
Pennsylvania:
Biden 49 Trump 42 LV