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2020 Presidential Polls

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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls

Post by Rate This » Sun Sep 27, 2020 10:16 pm

September 27

ABC News / Washington Post
General Election:
Biden 54 Trump 44 LV Head to Head
Biden 49 Trump 43 LV Third Parties Added

Independents:
Biden 59 Trump 37 LV

Independent Women:
Biden 77 Trump 20 LV

Just for comparison here’s the same point in 2016:
Clinton 49 Trump 47 Head to Head
Clinton 46 Trump 44 Third Parties Added
That’s just about spot on with the final result of Clinton +2.1%.

New York Times / Siena
General Election:
Biden 49 Trump 41

NBC News / Marist
Michigan:
Biden 52 Trump 44 LV

Wisconsin:
Biden 54 Trump 44 LV

CBS News / YouGov
North Carolina:
Biden 48 Trump 46 LV

South Carolina:
Trump 52 Biden 42 LV

Georgia:
Trump 47 Biden 46 LV

TIPP
Pennsylvania:
Biden 50 Trump 45 LV

Rasmussen Reports
Nevada:
Biden 49 Trump 48 LV



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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls

Post by Deleted User 14896 » Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:41 am

Mark Elliott wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:38 pm
.... The second problem is response rates - people don't talk to pollsters like they used to. With caller ID, cell phones, etc. samples are no longer representative of the general public ....
Rate This:
Does what Mark saying re-affirm what I was saying to you a month or so ago?
Appreciate the diligence you put into your poll reporting.
But like Mark says, telephone polls are not an accurate depiction of how folks actually feel.

I'll say what I said back then:
A conservative is more likely to see an unknown number and think "I don't know who that is, they can leave a message".
A liberal is more likely to not only answer an unknown number, but call it back if they see they missed a call.



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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls

Post by Rate This » Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:53 am

Mike Oxlong wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:41 am
Mark Elliott wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:38 pm
.... The second problem is response rates - people don't talk to pollsters like they used to. With caller ID, cell phones, etc. samples are no longer representative of the general public ....
Rate This:
Does what Mark saying re-affirm what I was saying to you a month or so ago?
Appreciate the diligence you put into your poll reporting.
But like Mark says, telephone polls are not an accurate depiction of how folks actually feel.

I'll say what I said back then:
A conservative is more likely to see an unknown number and think "I don't know who that is, they can leave a message".
A liberal is more likely to not only answer an unknown number, but call it back if they see they missed a call.
You are misunderstanding completely how polling works. There is no shy effect. It doesn’t exist and pollsters correct for any lack of responses... mostly by continuing to call until they get the proper amount of Republicans. So it takes longer but it’s not less accurate. Trump is way behind at this point and that’s consistent no matter the potential lean or not of a pollster.

Polling is a science. They don’t just shrug and get fewer Republicans and give up. As for your description of how liberals and conservatives behave, especially of liberals... you are Still an imbecile. Political persuasion has nothing to do with whether you answer a call or not.



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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls

Post by Rate This » Mon Sep 28, 2020 10:14 pm

September 28

Monmouth
General Election:
Biden 50 Trump 45 LV Head to Head
Biden 50 Trump 45 LV Third Parties Added

The Hill / HarrisX
General Election:
Biden 45 Trump 40 RV

Trafalger Group
Wisconsin:
Biden 48 Trump 45 LV

New York Times / Siena
Pennsylvania:
Biden 49 Trump 40 LV

Nebraska CD-2:
Biden 48 Trump 41 LV

Susquehanna
Florida:
Biden 46 Trump 43 LV

PPP
Texas:
Biden 48 Trump 48 V

Meredith College
North Carolina:
Biden 46 Trump 45 RV

University of Nevada Las Vegas / Lee Business School
Nevada:
Biden 46 Trump 41 LV

Harstad Strategies
Alaska:
Trump 47 Biden 46 LV

Univision
Latinos General Election:
Biden 66 Trump 24 RV

Latinos Texas:
Biden 66 Trump 25 RV

Latinos Arizona:
Biden 65 Trump 25 RV

Latinos Florida:
Biden 52 Trump 36 RV



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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls

Post by Turkeytop » Tue Sep 29, 2020 6:35 pm

R Bedell wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 6:14 pm
Image
Thanks for posting that, Bidet. It certainly gives all a lot to think about.


I started out with nothing and I still have most of it.

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Honeyman
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls

Post by Honeyman » Tue Sep 29, 2020 6:40 pm

:lol


The censorship king from out of state.

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Location: Warren, MI

Re: 2020 Presidential Polls

Post by MotorCityRadioFreak » Tue Sep 29, 2020 6:44 pm

Mike Oxlong wrote:
Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:41 am
Mark Elliott wrote:
Fri Sep 25, 2020 3:38 pm
.... The second problem is response rates - people don't talk to pollsters like they used to. With caller ID, cell phones, etc. samples are no longer representative of the general public ....
Rate This:
Does what Mark saying re-affirm what I was saying to you a month or so ago?
Appreciate the diligence you put into your poll reporting.
But like Mark says, telephone polls are not an accurate depiction of how folks actually feel.

I'll say what I said back then:
A conservative is more likely to see an unknown number and think "I don't know who that is, they can leave a message".
A liberal is more likely to not only answer an unknown number, but call it back if they see they missed a call.
I do both, depending on the day.


They/them, non-binary and proud.

Remember that “2000 Mules” was concocted by a circus of elephants.
The right needs to stop worry about what’s between people’s legs. Instead, they should focus on what’s between their ears.
Audacity sucks.

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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls

Post by Rate This » Wed Sep 30, 2020 12:29 am

R Bedell wrote:
Tue Sep 29, 2020 6:14 pm
Image
September 29

Harvard-Harris
General Election:
Biden 47 Trump 45 LV

JTN / RMG Research
General Election:
Biden 51 Trump 45 LV

Morning Consult
General Election:
Biden 51 Trump 44 LV

JLS Partners Polls
General Election:
Biden 51 Trump 41 LV

Susquehanna
Wisconsin:
Biden 48 Trump 46 LV

Arizona:
Biden 47 Trump 47 LV

Florida:
Biden 46 Trump 43 LV

UMass Lowell
Texas:
Trump 50 Biden 46 LV

North Carolina:
Trump 49 Biden 48 LV

New Hampshire:
Biden 53 Trump 44 LV

Quinnipiac
Georgia:
Biden 50 Trump 47 LV

Rasmussen Reports
New Hampshire:
Biden 56 Trump 42 LV

ABC News / Washington Post
Pennsylvania:
Biden 54 Trump 45 LV

TIPP
Pennsylvania:
Biden 50 Trump 45 LV

Survey Monkey
Ohio:
Biden 50 Trump 48 LV

Civiqs
Georgia:
Biden 50 Trump 47 LV



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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls

Post by Rate This » Wed Sep 30, 2020 11:16 pm

R Bedell wrote:
Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:12 am
Image
September 30

Trafalgar Group
Michigan:
Biden 49 Trump 47 LV

Economist / YouGov
General Election:
Biden 50 Trump 42 LV

Reuters / Ipsos
General Election:
Biden 51 Trump 42 LV

Rasmussen Reports
General Election:
Biden 51 Trump 43 LV

New Hampshire:
Biden 56 Trump 42 LV

USC Dornslife
General Election:
Biden 51 Trump 43 LV

Qriously
General Election:
Biden 50 Trump 40 LV

UNH
New Hampshire:
Biden 53 Trump 44 LV

Quinnipiac
South Carolina:
Trump 48 Biden 47 LV

KGTV-TV San Diego / SurveyUSA
California:
Biden 59 Trump 32 LV

WHO-TV Des Moines, Iowa / RABA Research
Iowa:
Biden 48 Trump 46 LV

Civiqs
Kansas:
Trump 52 Biden 42 LV



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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls

Post by TC Talks » Thu Oct 01, 2020 8:57 am

You know it's bad when Trump struggles in South Carolina. He's a pariah that will drag down Graham.
The Quinnipiac poll found Trump at 48 percent and Biden at 47 percent among likely voters in South Carolina, down from the president's 6-point advantage in the same poll from two weeks ago.

The survey from Quinnipiac University also finds Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) tied with Democrat Jaime Harrison in a race that could have enormous consequences for which party controls the Senate next year.

"There hasn't been a Democrat elected to the Senate from South Carolina since 1998," said Quinnipiac University pollster Tim Malloy. "Outspent and labeled by critics as an apologist for President Trump, Lindsey Graham is facing the fight of his political life."


“The more you can increase fear of drugs, crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.”
― Noam Chomsky

Posting Content © 2024 TC Talks Holdings LP.

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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls

Post by Rate This » Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:00 pm

R Bedell wrote:
Thu Oct 01, 2020 7:27 pm
Image
October 1
ALG Research
Michigan:
Biden 52 Trump 44 LV

Ohio:
Biden 48 Trump 46 LV

Pennsylvania:
Biden 50 Trump 44 LV

CNBC / Change Research
General Election:
Biden 54 Trump 41 LV

Reuters/Ipsos
General Election:
Biden 50 Trump 41 LV

WSB-TV Atlanta / Landmark
Georgia:
Biden 47 Trump 45 LV

Emerson
New Hampshire:
Biden 52 Trump 45 LV

Civiqs
Oregon:
Biden 56 Trump 39 LV

Data For Progress
Arizona:
Biden 49 Trump 45 LV

South Carolina:
Trump 47 Biden 43 LV

Maine:
Biden 53 Trump 39 LV

Iowa:
Trump 50 Biden 45 LV



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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls

Post by Rate This » Fri Oct 02, 2020 9:30 am

R Bedell wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 7:27 am
Every Poll since 1976 has predicted a Democrat Winner. Obviously, we all know the results.

Image
That’s not at all true... what the fuck?



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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls

Post by Rate This » Sat Oct 03, 2020 10:55 am

R Bedell wrote:
Fri Oct 02, 2020 7:27 am
Image
October 2

IBD / TIPP
General Election:
Biden 49 Trump 46 LV

The Hill / HarrisX
General Election:
Biden 47 Trump 40 LV

USA Today / Suffolk
Arizona:
Biden 50 Trump 46 LV

Siena
New York:
Biden 61 Trump 29 LV

Hart Research Associates
Georgia:
Biden 50 Trump 47 LV

North Carolina:
Biden 49 Trump 47 LV

Iowa:
Trump 49 Biden 47 LV

Ohio:
Trump 49 Biden 47 LV

Texas:
Trump 49 Biden 47 LV



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TC Talks
Posts: 10108
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls

Post by TC Talks » Sat Oct 03, 2020 12:26 pm

Vegas...

The PredictIt Currently Biden 65, Trump 38.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detai ... l-election


“The more you can increase fear of drugs, crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.”
― Noam Chomsky

Posting Content © 2024 TC Talks Holdings LP.

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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls

Post by Rate This » Sun Oct 04, 2020 12:18 am

October 3
PPP
Michigan:
Biden 50 Trump 44 V

Redfield & Wilton Strategies
Michigan:
Biden 51 Trump 42 LV

Arizona:
Biden 47 Trump 44 LV

Florida:
Biden 48 Trump 43 LV

Georgia:
Biden 45 Trump 44 LV

North Carolina:
Biden 47 Trump 45 LV

Pennsylvania:
Biden 50 Trump 44 LV

Wisconsin:
Biden 48 Trump 43 LV

New York Times / Siena
Florida:
Biden 47 Trump 42 LV

Pennsylvania:
Biden 49 Trump 42 LV



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