From what I understand of the Pew survey in question it’s Biden by 10 so that should give an inkling as to people’s answers to the question on which candidate can calm fears...Mike Oxlong wrote: ↑Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:43 pmVery relevant statement. The important question is what are the 66% fearful of?TC Talks wrote: ↑Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:25 pmDavid Brooks NY TimesAt least Americans are not in denial about the nation’s turmoil of the last three months. According to a Pew survey, 71 percent of Americans are angry about the state of the country right now and 66 percent are fearful. Only 17 percent are proud.
Is it the economy? Is it the virus? Is it the civil unrest? Which candidate do they feel can calm those fears?
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2020 Presidential Polls
Re: 2020 Presidential Polls
Re: 2020 Presidential Polls
July 4
Trafalger Group (R)
Florida:
Biden 46 Trump 46
**This one is another wait and see... all the other recent polls of Florida have given us 5-10 point Biden leads.
Trafalger Group (R)
Florida:
Biden 46 Trump 46
**This one is another wait and see... all the other recent polls of Florida have given us 5-10 point Biden leads.
- MWmetalhead
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls
There is zero chance of Trump losing in TX or AZ. I also think he wins North Carolina and Florida narrowly. Rust belt states are toss ups except Illinois, which will definitely vote Biden. I think Colorado is in the bag for Biden.
Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Virginia, Pennsylvania, the aforementioned Florida & North Carolina, Missouri, Louisiana, Nevada, Iowa, and Kentucky are the states to watch, IMO.
Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Virginia, Pennsylvania, the aforementioned Florida & North Carolina, Missouri, Louisiana, Nevada, Iowa, and Kentucky are the states to watch, IMO.
Morgan Wallen is a piece of garbage.
Re: 2020 Presidential Polls
Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania is basically the election. I don’t think people quite appreciate how mathematically behind the 8 ball the Trump campaign truly is...MWmetalhead wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 6:11 pmThere is zero chance of Trump losing in TX or AZ. I also think he wins North Carolina and Florida narrowly. Rust belt states are toss ups except Illinois, which will definitely vote Biden. I think Colorado is in the bag for Biden.
Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Virginia, Pennsylvania, the aforementioned Florida & North Carolina, Missouri, Louisiana, Nevada, Iowa, and Kentucky are the states to watch, IMO.
Arizona is definitely in play, the momentum that started in 2018 and got the Sinema elected Senator there looks to poised to return and put Mark Kelly in.. something is in the air there... Texas I doubt it’ll be any closer than Beto had it in 2018. Louisiana is solid red and Virginia is solid blue so those are off the table now. Kentucky will be red as will Missouri. Colorado has completed its switch from red to blue.
- MWmetalhead
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls
Kentucky still has a significant economic reliance on the coal industry, which obviously favors Trump.
Virginia is definitely leaning blue.
If I had to pick five crucial states to watch - they would be Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida.
Where I will disagree with you is your claim of Trump being so far behind the 8 ball mathematically. If the election were held today, I'd say it is a complete toss up in terms of who wins the electoral vote.
Virginia is definitely leaning blue.
If I had to pick five crucial states to watch - they would be Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida.
Where I will disagree with you is your claim of Trump being so far behind the 8 ball mathematically. If the election were held today, I'd say it is a complete toss up in terms of who wins the electoral vote.
Morgan Wallen is a piece of garbage.
Re: 2020 Presidential Polls
I’m referring to the fact that he won Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by a combined 78,000 votes. If he loses those 3 states he will not win. Period. That’s extremely precarious math in my view.MWmetalhead wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 8:25 pmKentucky still has a significant economic reliance on the coal industry, which obviously favors Trump.
Virginia is definitely leaning blue.
If I had to pick five crucial states to watch - they would be Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida.
Where I will disagree with you is your claim of Trump being so far behind the 8 ball mathematically. If the election were held today, I'd say it is a complete toss up in terms of who wins the electoral vote.
- MWmetalhead
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls
Those states represented 46 electoral votes in 2016 and will represent the same number of electoral votes this year. Trump won by 77 electoral votes.
He could lose all three of those states PLUS Florida and still have two electoral votes to spare!
If I had to make a prediction straight-up this minute in terms of who would win the electoral vote, I'd say Trump - by fewer than 20 votes.
Biden would win the popular vote.
He could lose all three of those states PLUS Florida and still have two electoral votes to spare!
If I had to make a prediction straight-up this minute in terms of who would win the electoral vote, I'd say Trump - by fewer than 20 votes.
Biden would win the popular vote.
Morgan Wallen is a piece of garbage.
Re: 2020 Presidential Polls
Even with those 46 votes added to the count for his opponent, would he still have enough to win?MWmetalhead wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 9:33 pmThose states represented 46 electoral votes in 2016 and will represent the same number of electoral votes this year. Trump won by 77 electoral votes.
He could lose all three of those states PLUS Florida and still have two electoral votes to spare!
If I had to make a prediction straight-up this minute in terms of who would win the electoral vote, I'd say Trump - by fewer than 20 votes.
Biden would win the popular vote.
I started out with nothing and I still have most of it.
Re: 2020 Presidential Polls
No TT he would lose if he lost those 46 electoral votes 278-260.Turkeytop wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 9:45 pmEven with those 46 votes added to the count for his opponent, would he still have enough to win?MWmetalhead wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 9:33 pmThose states represented 46 electoral votes in 2016 and will represent the same number of electoral votes this year. Trump won by 77 electoral votes.
He could lose all three of those states PLUS Florida and still have two electoral votes to spare!
If I had to make a prediction straight-up this minute in terms of who would win the electoral vote, I'd say Trump - by fewer than 20 votes.
Biden would win the popular vote.
Re: 2020 Presidential Polls
You did that math way wrong. Hillary got 232... adding the 46 to that total is a 278-260 Biden win. Adding on Florida and you fully reverse the 2016 race at 306-232 Biden.MWmetalhead wrote: ↑Sat Jul 04, 2020 9:33 pmThose states represented 46 electoral votes in 2016 and will represent the same number of electoral votes this year. Trump won by 77 electoral votes.
He could lose all three of those states PLUS Florida and still have two electoral votes to spare!
If I had to make a prediction straight-up this minute in terms of who would win the electoral vote, I'd say Trump - by fewer than 20 votes.
Biden would win the popular vote.
Trumps 77 electoral-vote margin doesn’t matter. His 36 electoral-vote margin over 270 is what matters.
The way he’s being slapped around in the polls... he’d be lucky to crack 170 let alone 270 if we use them as a guide. He’s currently set up to be completely blown out.
- MWmetalhead
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Re: 2020 Presidential Polls
You're 100 percent right, Rate This. I had a brain fart and forgot to adjust both sides of the equation, and I also failed to consider the 270 threshold required to win.
Sorry about that.
I am going to stick with my outcome prediction, however. I think Trump will barely eek out a victory.
Sorry about that.
I am going to stick with my outcome prediction, however. I think Trump will barely eek out a victory.
Morgan Wallen is a piece of garbage.
Re: 2020 Presidential Polls
This would be a fun result:
Re: 2020 Presidential Polls
I think AZ and PA are swapped.
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― Matt
Posting Content © 2024 TC Talks Holdings LP.
Re: 2020 Presidential Polls
I was just showing one viable road to 269.
The thing is, given the number of elector defections last year, something closer to 280 is probably what will be needed to outright win this year, so there's quite a few combinations of final outcomes that could cause trouble.
The thing is, given the number of elector defections last year, something closer to 280 is probably what will be needed to outright win this year, so there's quite a few combinations of final outcomes that could cause trouble.
Re: 2020 Presidential Polls
I don’t exactly understand what you’re basing your prediction on... absolutely nothing points to this...MWmetalhead wrote: ↑Sun Jul 05, 2020 5:48 pmYou're 100 percent right, Rate This. I had a brain fart and forgot to adjust both sides of the equation, and I also failed to consider the 270 threshold required to win.
Sorry about that.
I am going to stick with my outcome prediction, however. I think Trump will barely eek out a victory.