All accepted registrations through February 24 at 8:30p ET have been activated. Thank you! -M.W.

Terms of Use have been amended effective October 6, 2019. Make sure you are aware of the new rules! Please visit this thread for details: https://www.mibuzzboard.com/phpBB3/view ... 16&t=48619

Weather hysterics

Debate and discussion of current events and political issues in the State of Michigan. Be forewarned -- this forum is NOT for the intellectually weak or those of you with thin skins. Don't come crying to me if you become the subject of ridicule. **Board Administrator reserves the right to revoke posting privileges based on my sole discretion**
lovinlife101
Posts: 3245
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2011 11:53 am

Weather hysterics

Post by lovinlife101 » Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:22 am

Here we go again.

Unseasonable warm weather means “CHANCE OF FLOODING IN AREAS THAT NORMALLY FLOOD!!! YOU’RE BEING WARNED!!!! SEEK SHELTER!!!!!! SEEEEEEEEEEK IIIIIIIIIIIIIIT!!!!!”



km1125
Posts: 253
Joined: Thu Mar 14, 2019 3:09 pm

Re: Weather hysterics

Post by km1125 » Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:56 pm

Well, I liked what Kevra said the other day when referencing the precipitation estimates for Fri-Sat. He said "the models are all over the place and are saying it could be zero or it could be 3... I'll say it could be more or it could be less... too early to tell!!" At least he was being honest.



tapeisrolling
Posts: 113
Joined: Sat Dec 04, 2004 9:07 pm
Location: go ahead, I'm listening

Re: Weather hysterics

Post by tapeisrolling » Fri Jan 10, 2020 7:17 pm

I just want to know if anyone is 'on the overpass' yet to report.



User avatar
HD74
Posts: 143
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 4:53 pm
Location: SOMEWHERE BEHIND THE RACKS

Re: Weather hysterics

Post by HD74 » Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:55 pm

Wake up folks!
Icemaggodon is on your front porch!!
Climate change!!!!
I’m buying up ice at Meijer!!
Oh, wait,it’s a rainstorm, I should have stocked up on beer.
Sorry to bother you. I’ve got enough for tonight.
Can you order it to go yet?
Can Amazon drone in a twelve?
beer emergency in sector 7a!!
Enable drone launch!
Where’s my flying car dammit!
Oh the humanity of it all!


You're never too old to learn something stupid.

User avatar
MWmetalhead
Site Admin
Posts: 3116
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: Weather hysterics

Post by MWmetalhead » Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:17 pm

So far, the forecast has proven to be a COMPLETE DUD! (at least in terms of precip intensity)

Nothing more than drizzle and very ilght rain in my neck of the woods. I think SE Michigan is going to miss out on most of the heavy rain overnight; it's mainly going to be positioned over Indiana and SW lower Michigan.

I think there will be some heavy rain tomorrow - and some treacherous icing - but I think the computer projections of widespread 2 or 3 inch liquid precip totals is overdone, at least as far as SE Michigan is concerned. (I do think parts of SW Michigan could see totals in that range.)

The hydrologic forecasts put out by NOAA are overzealous. I think minor/moderate river flooding in SE Michigan is likely; I am highly skeptical about the major/record flooding being officially forecast by NOAA.


Lori Bennett and Bob Walker have turned WLAV from an iconic classic rock station into a ratings boondoggle. Sad.

lovinlife101
Posts: 3245
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2011 11:53 am

Re: Weather hysterics

Post by lovinlife101 » Sun Jan 12, 2020 7:29 am

MWmetalhead wrote:
Fri Jan 10, 2020 11:17 pm
So far, the forecast has proven to be a COMPLETE DUD! (at least in terms of precip intensity)

Nothing more than drizzle and very ilght rain in my neck of the woods. I think SE Michigan is going to miss out on most of the heavy rain overnight; it's mainly going to be positioned over Indiana and SW lower Michigan.

I think there will be some heavy rain tomorrow - and some treacherous icing - but I think the computer projections of widespread 2 or 3 inch liquid precip totals is overdone, at least as far as SE Michigan is concerned. (I do think parts of SW Michigan could see totals in that range.)

The hydrologic forecasts put out by NOAA are overzealous. I think minor/moderate river flooding in SE Michigan is likely; I am highly skeptical about the major/record flooding being officially forecast by NOAA.
I saw a report that showed how many people were out of power. One county had one customer without power. One. Complete dud.



User avatar
MWmetalhead
Site Admin
Posts: 3116
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: Weather hysterics

Post by MWmetalhead » Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:02 am

The rain totals wound up mostly being toward the lower end of the range of the NWS was forecasting. Their maps were showing widespread 2.5 inch to 3.5 inch totals. Most areas wound up seeing 2 to 2.5 inches of liquid equivalent precip from start to finish.

I was correct about river flooding being nowhere nearly as severe as the NOAA projections from Friday. Is there flooding? Yes. But nowhere close to the major / catastrophic flooding that NOAA was forecasting along the Clinton & Rogue River basins.

The computer models did a pretty lousy job handling projected wind speeds; they advertised a pretty significant high wind event. Instead, most saw infrequent gusts to 35 mph here & there. No big deal at all.

The computer models as recently as Friday were also horrendously overzealous on ice accretion. The NWS, to its credit, knew so. Instead of accepting the 1.00"+ totals many models were spitting out, the NWS went with "up to one half inch." Most areas saw 0.3" or less. With surface temperatures so mild Friday evening, I think ice accretion on Saturday was impeded to an extent.

Where the computer models especially failed was snowfall projections. Many on Friday morning were showing 12 - 18"+ over an enormous swath of central & northern Michigan. Again, the NWS knew the models were f*cked up and went with a general 6 to 12 inches in northern lower and 4 to 6 inches across central lower initially. Most places saw much less than even those totals. Northern lower received a general 3 to 6 inches; central lower was generally in the 1 to 3 range.

(Reference: https://www.facebook.com/NWSGaylord)


Lori Bennett and Bob Walker have turned WLAV from an iconic classic rock station into a ratings boondoggle. Sad.

User avatar
TheForce
Posts: 583
Joined: Sat Mar 31, 2007 6:12 pm

Re: Weather hysterics

Post by TheForce » Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:06 am

I think the storm was way over hyped up north. Didn't get tons of snow as foretasted. People were apocalyptic shopping on Friday.



User avatar
MWmetalhead
Site Admin
Posts: 3116
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: Weather hysterics

Post by MWmetalhead » Sun Jan 12, 2020 8:49 am

The Weather Channel was doing live reports from Lansing all day Saturday. Reportedly, staple items were in short supply at area grocery stores! A lot of shelves were bare. I guess people were expecting to be without power for several days.

Lansing BWL is reporting zero outages. Consumers only has a few zones of concentrated outages, and they are confined to rural areas. (Montcalm County, for example.)


Lori Bennett and Bob Walker have turned WLAV from an iconic classic rock station into a ratings boondoggle. Sad.

kager
Posts: 210
Joined: Mon Jun 21, 2010 11:10 pm
Location: GPS lost

Re: Weather hysterics

Post by kager » Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:23 am

We got off light in NWL MI. I'm happy about it.

It's weather. Still hard to believe they don't get it right every time. Sometimes works in your favour, sometimes not.

(Now, back to your regularly-scheduled front porch rockin' chair polpot bit chin session)


"The problem with communication is the illusion that it has occurred."

bmw
Posts: 1374
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: Weather hysterics

Post by bmw » Sun Jan 12, 2020 9:32 am

The Weather Channel's forecast for my zip code (for Tawas City) were CONSISTENTLY way higher than the National Weather Service forecast numbers that came as part of the Winter Storm Warning.

Per the NWS, we were looking at anywhere from 4-6 to 6-11 inches depending on what time you read the warning information. Per TWC, we were looking at 1-3 inches overnight the night before, then 5-8 inches yesterday, then another 5-8 or 8-12 inches overnight last night depending on what time you looked. In fact, late yesterday evening, TWC was STILL calling for 8-12 inches overnight. Then the dry slot showed up and a mere hours later, they called for "an inch or less." WHAT A JOKE! I don't know how you go from 8-12 inches to an inch or less in mere hours. There's no way the computer model forecasting is THAT bad. And that is part of the problem. So much of the forecasting is purely computer-based these days without a professional weather person intervening and tweaking numbers per common sense.

Our actual total? 3.5 inches. LOL.



User avatar
TheForce
Posts: 583
Joined: Sat Mar 31, 2007 6:12 pm

Re: Weather hysterics

Post by TheForce » Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:10 am

I kept hearing different storm totals from different news outlets, NWS, even hearing people talk. It's frustrating everybody says something different so at the end of the day you will believe what you actually see after it happens.



User avatar
TC Talks
Posts: 1898
Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2005 2:41 am

Re: Weather hysterics

Post by TC Talks » Sun Jan 12, 2020 11:21 am

It's Sunny in Traverse City with 4 inches on the ground. I can't say I am upset about the storm diminishing. I'm going skiing.

Image


© 2020 TC Talks Global Inc. Assembled in U.S.A. By reading this content you accept our terms of use and waive all rights.

zzand
Posts: 436
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 9:16 am
Location: right here

Re: Weather hysterics

Post by zzand » Sun Jan 12, 2020 1:59 pm

I know in my area they got it pretty damn close to right. Lots of wind and rain, in the neighborhood of 4 inches of rain. Thankful it wasn't snow.



lovinlife101
Posts: 3245
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2011 11:53 am

Re: Weather hysterics

Post by lovinlife101 » Sun Jan 12, 2020 2:03 pm

I remember when the news was somewhat useful instead of an annoying neighbor.

“Better put chains on your tires! Storm’s coming!”

“Better get the bread and milk! Storm’s coming!”

“Holy crap! WE BOMBED IRAN!!! We’re all gonna die!”

“Doom!!! Gloom!!! And you’re not prepared!”

Shut up, Wilson. Nobody likes you and nobody trusts you.



Post Reply Previous topicNext topic