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The Economic Data Thread 2.0

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Deleted User 8570

The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Wed Dec 07, 2016 11:27 am

A while back I posted one of these but stopped updating it. Since we could use some actual data to give us a better idea how things are (especially in light of the Obama boom thread) why not try again?

Today's data relates to job postings, down 1.8% in October. The rate is still considered healthy. I'm going to use the AP as a source for this.
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. employers posted fewer jobs in October than the previous month, but job openings are still at a mostly healthy level that points to steady hiring ahead.

Job openings slipped 1.8 percent to 5.5 million, the Labor Department said Wednesday . Hiring also fell to just under 5.1 million, while the number of people quitting declined to about 3 million.

While solid, the data weakened from September, suggesting that hiring is unlikely to accelerate beyond its current moderate pace anytime soon. Growth has been sluggish for most of this year, though it picked up in the July-September quarter.

The data follows last week's jobs report, which showed that employers added 178,000 jobs, matching this year's average monthly gain. The unemployment rate fell to a nine-year low of 4.6 percent.

Last week's jobs figure is a net gain after layoffs, quits and retirements are subtracted from overall hiring.

Wednesday's data comes from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey, or JOLTS, and are more detailed and provide a fuller view of the job market.

Job openings fell the most in professional and business services, which includes largely higher-paying jobs in areas such as engineering, accounting and information technology. They also dropped in construction, financial services, and in hotels and restaurants. Openings rose in retail and health care.

The gap between job openings and hiring is a sign that companies may be struggling to find the qualified workers they need. The number of available jobs has risen 2 percent in the past year, while total hiring has dropped 2.2 percent. With the unemployment rate low, companies have a smaller pool of available workers to choose from.

That disparity may force employers to offer higher pay in order to attract more applicants to fill those openings. That could accelerate pay increases nationwide.

The number of Americans quitting their jobs fell in October but has jumped 6.8 percent in the past year, a positive sign that could also push wages higher. Quitting is generally a sign of confidence in the job market and typically occurs when employees leave for another job at higher pay. Quitting can also increase as employers actively recruit workers who already have jobs.

Deleted User 8570

Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Wed Dec 07, 2016 11:35 am

German Industrial Production was weaker than expected in October:
BERLIN (AP) — German industrial production rose more weakly than expected in October following a significant decline the previous month.

The Economy Ministry said Wednesday that production in Europe's biggest economy was up 0.3 percent compared with September, well below the 0.8 percent economists had predicted. In September, production was down 1.6 percent — revised from the initial reading of a 1.8 percent drop.

The rise was led by a strong pick-up in the construction sector.

The disappointing production figure came a day after factory orders figures for October far exceeded expectations, posting a 4.9 percent gain over the previous month thanks to a strong increase in orders for investment goods such as machinery.

Deleted User 8570

Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Wed Dec 07, 2016 11:44 am

Australia's economy shrank 0.5% in the September quarter, only the 4th quarterly decline in 25 years. If they have another in the December quarter it'll be the first recession in 25 years.
CANBERRA, Australia (AP) — Australia's economy contracted in the September quarter for the first time since early 2011, the government said Wednesday, as the economy adjusts to weaker Chinese demand for its biggest exports, iron ore and coal.

The economy contracted by 0.5 percent over the three months. Annual growth was 1.8 percent, the Australian Bureau of Statistics said.

Growth in the year through June had been 3.1 percent.

A decline in new business investment was the dominant cause for the contraction in September, Treasurer Scott Morrison said.

He would not speculate on whether the December quarter would also contract, technically creating Australia's first recession in 25 years.

"I think the consensus forecasts and the other commentary demonstrates going forward there are a lot of things to be positive about. I am not one to speculate on those matters. We will wait and see the data," Morrison told reporters.

He called on a hostile Senate to respond by passing the government's economic agenda.

"The contraction in real GDP recorded in the September quarter is not just a reminder, not just a wake-up call or a warning about being complacent when it comes to economic growth," Morrison said.

"It is a demand to support economic policies that drive the investment needed to support job security, the hours and wages that hard-working Australians need to deal with rising costs of living, especially on electricity costs and that businesses need to survive in a tough and competitive environment," he said.

The economy last shrunk in March 2011 after record flooding effected farm and coal exports, and before then in September 2008 after the global financial crisis.

Opposition treasury spokesman Chris Bowen said that September was one of only four negative quarters that Australia had recorded in the past 25 years, and the only one that did not have an obvious explanation.

He said that recent quarters had been kept in positive territory only by spikes in government investment or net exports.

"That can't go on forever, and today was the day it stopped," Bowen said.

Record commodity prices driven by Chinese demand helped Australia avoid recession after the global economic downturn. The demand caused a surge in investment in Australia mine construction which is continuing to decline.

Mining contributed no growth in the latest quarter, while agriculture increased 7.5 percent over the three months.

Deleted User 8570

Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Thu Dec 08, 2016 9:52 am

China's trade figures recovered in November. They have a $23 Billion surplus with us for the month.
BEIJING (AP) — China's exports grew in November for the first time in nine months while imports also rose in a sign global and domestic demand are recovering.

Exports rose 0.1 percent to $19.7 billion, an improvement over October's 7.3 percent contraction, customs data showed Thursday. Imports rose 6.7 percent to $15.2 billion, up from the previous month's 1.4 percent decline.

The trade slump has added to pressure on communist leaders to prop up weak economic growth and avoid politically dangerous job losses.

"Better-than-expected trade data out of China today reflects both an uptick in global demand as well as the continued strength of the domestic economy," said Julian Evans-Pritchard of Capital Economics in a report.

Growth in the world's second-largest economy held steady at 6.7 percent over a year earlier in the quarter ending in September, shored up by twin booms in credit and real estate sales. Forecasters expect growth to weaken as regulators tighten lending controls and try to cool housing costs.

China's global trade surplus was $44.6 billion, while its surplus with the United States was $23.1 billion, a figure that might help to fuel pressure for trade controls under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who has threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese goods.

"We remain cautious on the export outlook, given the still unconvincing global demand recovery and policy uncertainty in the U.S. after Mr. Trump's election win," Louis Kuijs of Oxford Economics said in a report.

November's trade gains were even stronger when measured in China's currency, which has weakened against the dollar. In yuan terms, exports rose 5.9 percent from a year earlier while imports jumped 13 percent.

Still, despite the latest improvement, exports for the first 11 months of the 2016 are down 7.5 percent from a year ago. In 2015, exports fell 2.8 percent for the full year.

"The medium-term outlook for Chinese trade remains challenging," said Evans-Pritchard. "While global demand has recovered somewhat recently, lower trend growth in many developed and emerging economies means that further upside is probably limited."

Deleted User 8570

Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Thu Dec 08, 2016 9:57 am

Unemployment claims dropped last week...
WASHINGTON (AP) — Fewer Americans signed up for unemployment benefits last week, another sign the U.S. job market remains healthy.

THE NUMBERS: The Labor Department said Thursday that weekly claims for jobless aid slid by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 258,000. The less-volatile four-week average rose by 1,000 to 252,500. Overall, 2.01 million Americans are collecting unemployment checks, down 10 percent from a year ago.

THE TAKEAWAY: Claims have come in below 300,000 for 92 straight weeks, longest such streak since 1970 when the population and labor force were much smaller. The applications are a proxy for layoffs, and the low numbers suggest that employers are hanging onto their workers and that most Americans enjoy job security. "Firms know how hard it is to find qualified staff, so they are reluctant to let people go unless they have no choice," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

KEY DRIVERS: The job market is robust. The Labor Department reported last week that the economy generated a solid 178,000 jobs in November. The unemployment rate dropped to a nine-year low 4.6 percent. But joblessness rate fell largely because so many Americans stopped looking for work and were no longer counted as unemployed.

Deleted User 8570

Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Tue Dec 27, 2016 7:36 pm

Consumer confidence in November was at its highest level since August 2001:
WASHINGTON (AP) — American consumers are the sunniest they've been in more than 15 years.

The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index climbed to 113.7 in December, up from 109.4 in November and the highest since it reached 114 in August 2001. It's another sign consumers are confident in the aftermath of a divisive election campaign.

The index measures consumers' assessment of current conditions, which dipped from November but was still very positive, and their expectations for the future, which hit a 13-year high.

Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, said the "post-election surge in optimism" was strongest among older Americans.

The U.S. economy grew at a 3.5 percent annual pace from July to September, fastest in two years. Unemployment is at a nine-year low of 4.6 percent. Employers have added 180,000 jobs a month this year, down from an average 229,000 in 2015 but still solid.

Economists monitor consumers' mood closely because their spending accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic output.

"The election of Donald Trump has raised household expectations for the economy to a very high level," Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities, wrote in a research note. "It remains to be seen whether Trump can deliver," but the burst in confidence could drive consumer spending higher.

Deleted User 8570

Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Tue Dec 27, 2016 7:39 pm

Although the 20-city Case-Schiller Home Price Index is still around 7% below the peak in home prices in 2006, the broader national survey for October shows housing prices have now fully recovered from the housing bust:
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. home prices rose again in October as buyers bidding for scarce properties drove prices higher.

The Standard & Poor's CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city home price index, released Tuesday, rose 5.1 percent in October from a year earlier after climbing 5 percent in September. Prices for the 20 cities are still 7.1 percent below their July 2006 peak.

The broader Case-Shiller national home price index was up 5.6 percent in October and has fully recovered from the financial crisis.

Prices rose 10.7 percent annually in Seattle, 10.3 percent in Portland and 8.3 percent in Denver. New York registered the smallest year-over-year gain: 1.7 percent.

Home sales and prices have been helped by healthy demand, tight supplies and low mortgage rates.

The National Association of Realtors said last week that fewer than 1.9 million homes were on the market in November, down 9 percent from a year earlier. The tight supply pushed the median price of existing homes to $234,900 last month, up 6.8 percent from a year ago.

But the cheap loans may be vanishing. The rate on the benchmark 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage last week reached 4.30 percent, the highest since April 2014.

Rates have surged since the Nov. 8 election of Donald Trump. Investors have bid rates higher because they believe the president-elect's plans for tax cuts and higher infrastructure spending will drive up economic growth and inflation.

And the Federal Reserve, citing improvement in the U.S. economy, this month raised short-term U.S. interest rates for only the second time in a decade.

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Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by Turkeytop » Tue Dec 27, 2016 8:46 pm

Canada's economy is in the toilet.

Canada’s GDP surprises economists by shrinking, ending four straight months of growth

OTTAWA — The Canadian economy retreated in October due to widespread weakness in the manufacturing sector and a decline in oil and gas extraction.

The gross domestic product was down 0.3 per cent in October, data from Statistics Canada showed on Friday, falling below economists’ expectations for no growth. September was revised slightly higher to growth of 0.4 per cent from the 0.3 per cent that was first reported.

“The GDP report is an ugly snowball of reality to the face of the economy to end the year after a nice run earlier in the fall,” said Douglas Porter, BMO chief economist.

The decline in October came after four consecutive months of growth and supported forecasts that the economy slowed at the end of the year following a strong rebound in the third quarter.

The Bank of Canada was likely to maintain its dovish stance in view of the disappointing growth figures. Economists expect the bank to keep rates the same until 2018, though some see a possibility the bank will have to cut again.

The central bank cut rates twice in 2015 to stave off the impact from lower oil, a major export for Canada.

“The uneven pace of the Canadian economic recovery after the oil shock gives them reason to continue on with their dovish message.”

The Canadian dollar weakened to a five-week low against the greenback following the data.

Output in the manufacturing sector fell by 2.0 per cent, the largest decline since December 2013, on a lower volume of exports. Both durable and non-durable manufacturing were down.

Oil and gas extraction was down 2.5 per cent, pulling back after four months of gains. The support sector for the petroleum and mining industry rose 4.4 per cent on stronger drilling activity, but it was still well below levels in early 2015 as the oil price shock began to pinch.

Weaker construction also weighed on the economy with the sector down 0.5 per cent, its fifth decline in six months. Residential construction fell 1.0 per cent as builders broke ground on fewer homes.

The service sectors fared better, rising 0.1 per cent on the whole on an increase in retail and wholesale trade.

© Thomson Reuters 2016 ... -of-growth

Ottawa is now $9.3 billion in the red; that’s compared to a $600 million surplus last year

OTTAWA — The federal government ran a budgetary deficit of $1.5 billion in October as increases in spending on programs outpaced increases in tax revenues.

The Finance Department’s monthly fiscal monitor also says the federal government has a deficit of $9.3 billion since the 2016-17 fiscal year started in April.

That figure for the April-to-October period is a swing from the $600 million surplus the Finance Department reported during the same stretch in the 2015-16 fiscal year.

The monthly check on government spending shows that revenues rose by 11.3 per cent, or $2.5 billion, compared to the same time last year, with more money coming in from personal income, corporate and excise taxes.

Personal income tax revenue rose by 7.6 per cent, corporate tax revenue rose by 16 per cent and GST revenues rose by $600 million.

Employment insurance premium revenues were up as well by $18 million, or 1.5 per cent, from the period last year.

Federal program expenses were up 8.2 per cent, or $12 billion, between April and October compared to the same period last year, largely a result of jumps in major transfers to people — including child, senior and employment insurance benefits — and spending at departments like National Defence.

Public debt charges were down by about $100 million, or 3.1 per cent, compared to October 2016 because of lower interest rates. ... -last-year

Deleted User 8570

Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Tue Dec 27, 2016 9:57 pm

Both of those results are rather alarming north of the border... what happened?

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Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by Turkeytop » Tue Dec 27, 2016 11:03 pm

NS8401 wrote:Both of those results are rather alarming north of the border... what happened?

Liberal government that couldn't even run a lemonade stand.

Deleted User 8570

Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Tue Dec 27, 2016 11:22 pm

Turkeytop wrote:
NS8401 wrote:Both of those results are rather alarming north of the border... what happened?

Liberal government that couldn't even run a lemonade stand.
Perhaps they were told they needed a permit first? :lol:

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Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by Turkeytop » Wed Dec 28, 2016 12:04 am

We gave them all the permit they needed in last year's election.

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Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by audiophile » Wed Dec 28, 2016 8:09 am

NS8401 wrote:
Turkeytop wrote:
NS8401 wrote:Both of those results are rather alarming north of the border... what happened?

Liberal government that couldn't even run a lemonade stand.
Perhaps they were told they needed a permit first? :lol:

Ask not what your country can do FOR you; ask what they are about to do TO YOU!!

Deleted User 8570

Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Wed Dec 28, 2016 12:22 pm

Pending home sales declined 2.5% in November as higher mortgages rates weigh on buyers...
WASHINGTON (AP) — Fewer Americans signed contracts to buy homes in November. The decrease likely reflects the drag caused by rising mortgage rates and the shallow inventory of properties on the market.

The National Association of Realtors said Wednesday that its seasonally adjusted pending home sales index fell 2.5 percent to 107.3, the lowest reading since the start of 2016. Pending sales declined in the Midwest, South and West, while improving in the Northeast.

The slowdown marks a reversal for the housing market, as sales growth has been solid for the past year. Completed sales of existing homes in November climbed their highest pace in nearly a decade, reaching a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.61 million, the Realtors said last week. But the pending sales contracts suggest that demand may be weakening now that the costs of purchasing a home have increased.

Pending sales contracts are a barometer of future purchases. A sale is typically completed a month or two after a contract is signed.

Mortgage rates began to surge after Donald Trump's presidential win in November, making it more expensive to purchase a home. Average 30-year fixed rate mortgages were 4.3 percent last week, up from a 52-week low of 3.4 percent, according to mortgage buyer Freddie Mac.

Rising rates could make existing homeowners less likely to put their property on the market, since it would require them to finance the purchase of a new home at higher interest rates.

Inventories are already squeezed. Fewer than 1.9 million homes were on the market in November, a 9 percent decrease from a year earlier. The shortage of listings has pushed up prices over the past year.

But higher mortgage rates might leave buyers reluctant to pay a premium. If rates go up to 5 percent within the next year, nearly half of the real estate agents surveyed by the brokerage Redfin say their customers would begin searching for cheaper homes.

"Many of my clients_both buyers and sellers_have expressed concern and hesitation about increasing mortgage rates," said Arto Poladian, a Redfin agent in Los Angeles.

Deleted User 8570

Re: The Economic Data Thread 2.0

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Tue Jan 03, 2017 11:42 am

Construction spending in November was at its highest rate since April 2006:
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. builders boosted spending on construction projects for a second straight month in November, pushing activity to the highest level in more than a decade.

Construction spending rose 0.9 percent in November after a 0.6 percent increase in October, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. The increase reflected solid gains in home construction, nonresidential building and government construction activity.

The gains in all three categories pushed total construction to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.18 trillion, the highest point since April 2006 when a housing boom fueled building.

Economists believe construction will continue to show gains in 2017, reflecting a strong job market with unemployment at the lowest point in nine years.

Financial markets sent stock prices to record highs following the election of Donald Trump, reflecting in part enthusiasm over his vows to increase spending on projects to repair and replace the country's aging infrastructure.

For November, the 1 percent rise in residential construction reflected a 1.8 percent rise in single-family construction which offset a 2.7 percent drop in the smaller and more volatile apartment construction sector.

The 1 percent rise in nonresidential construction followed a 1.6 percent decline in October. The gains in November were led by 7 percent jump in hotel and motel construction.

The 0.8 percent advance in government projects reflected a 3.1 percent rise in spending at the federal level and a 0.6 percent increase in construction by state and local governments.

President Barack Obama sought for a number of years to get Congress to approve higher infrastructure spending, but he was blocked by opposition from Republicans who complained that the projects would increase budget deficits. Democrats in Congress have already expressed support for Trump's proposals to boost construction spending. His ideas, however, may still face opposition from Republicans worried about high deficits.

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