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Final electoral map predictions

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bmw
Posts: 1255
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Final electoral map predictions

Post by bmw » Sun Nov 06, 2016 4:49 pm

Post 'em here. I'm listing all states declared as swing states by Real Clear Politics. Here are my predictions (including margins of victory in each state) :

Trump:
5.1% Georgia (16)
3.6% Arizona (11)
3.2% Iowa (6)
1.8% Ohio (18)
0.6% Florida (29)
0.5% New Hampshire (4)
0.2% Maine CD2 (1)
0.2% North Carolina (15)
0.1% Nevada (6)


Clinton:
6.1% New Mexico (5)
5.3% Maine (2)
4.7% Michigan (16)
4.6% Colorado (9)
2.2% Pennsylvania (20)


Trump wins, 270-268

EDIT - I'm changing my predictions (election day morning) as follows:
Nevada to Hillary (0.5%)
New Hampshire to Hillary (0.5%)

Michigan to Trump (1.1%)

Trump wins, 276-262
Last edited by bmw on Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:44 am, edited 1 time in total.



Deleted User 8570

Re: Final electoral map predictions

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Sun Nov 06, 2016 5:01 pm

I'll make my final on Tuesday... over 300 for Clinton... trump in the low 200's...



Y M Ionhere
Posts: 644
Joined: Wed Oct 27, 2010 9:31 pm
Location: Where the sun no longer shines

Re: Final electoral map predictions

Post by Y M Ionhere » Sun Nov 06, 2016 6:23 pm

I think there will be few changes from the 2012 electoral map. I don't think any blue states will switch. How anyone thinks that NH or Maine will go red is beyond me. I am definitely not a biased Hillary fan. However, I dont think shes beatable. Trump is too weak a candidate to take her down in loyally blue states.
Georgia- Trump: 52%
Arizona-Trump: 51%
Iowa- Clinton:52%
Florida- Clinton: 51%
New Hampshire- Clinton: 54-56%
Maine- Clinton: 55%
North Carolina- Clinton: 51%
Nevada- Clinton: 52%
Colorado- Clinton:54%
Michigan-Clinton: 55%
Ohio-Trump:51%



bmw
Posts: 1255
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: Final electoral map predictions

Post by bmw » Sun Nov 06, 2016 6:28 pm

Y M Ionhere wrote:How anyone thinks that NH or Maine will go red is beyond me.
To be clear, that is only a single Congressional District (CD2) for a single electoral vote as Maine is not winner-take-all.



Deleted User 8570

Re: Final electoral map predictions

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Sun Nov 06, 2016 6:28 pm

bmw wrote:Post 'em here. I'm listing all states declared as swing states by Real Clear Politics. Here are my predictions (including margins of victory in each state) :

Trump:
5.1% Georgia (16)
3.6% Arizona (11)
3.2% Iowa (6)
1.8% Ohio (18)
0.6% Florida (29)
0.5% New Hampshire (4)
0.2% Maine CD2 (1)
0.2% North Carolina (15)
0.1% Nevada (6)


Clinton:
6.1% New Mexico (5)
5.3% Maine (2)
4.7% Michigan (16)
4.6% Colorado (9)
2.2% Pennsylvania (20)


Trump wins, 270-268
Florida, New Hampshire and Maine CD-2 you are probably wrong on. Nevada as well. He's toast.



Matt
Posts: 982
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 12:18 pm
Location: Ann Arbor

Re: Final electoral map predictions

Post by Matt » Mon Nov 07, 2016 5:31 am

Image

I think Trump can and may possibly win, but if I had to bet, I'm going with the numbers, even with my serious concerns about the accuracy of polling. If Trump wins all the states that I have predicted him to win and somehow peels away Nevada and New Hampshire, we're at 269-269.

As a bonus prediction, the Republicans hold the Senate and only have a net loss of two seats. They will win Nevada and lose Illinois and Pennsylvania. The final loss will be 1 of Wisconsin, New Hampshire, or Missouri.

Edit: Don't count out Colorado as a pickup chance for Republicans in the Senate...



Deleted User 8570

Re: Final electoral map predictions

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Tue Nov 08, 2016 8:18 am

323-215 Clinton... Ohio and Iowa to Trump offset by North Carolina, Florida and Nevada for Clinton... the blue wall holds.



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audiophile
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Location: Between 88 and 108 MHz.

Re: Final electoral map predictions

Post by audiophile » Tue Nov 08, 2016 8:25 am

I'm probably the only one in the family (including in-laws) not voting for Trump.

These are union households too.


Ask not what your country can do FOR you; ask what they are about to do TO YOU!!

Deleted User 8570

Re: Final electoral map predictions

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Tue Nov 08, 2016 8:40 am

audiophile wrote:I'm probably the only one in the family (including in-laws) not voting for Trump.

These are union households too.
I'm gonna be glued to it tonight... either way it goes it will be quite interesting...



Matt
Posts: 982
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 12:18 pm
Location: Ann Arbor

Re: Final electoral map predictions

Post by Matt » Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:27 pm

NS8401 wrote:
audiophile wrote:I'm probably the only one in the family (including in-laws) not voting for Trump.

These are union households too.
I'm gonna be glued to it tonight... either way it goes it will be quite interesting...
Agreed, I'll have FNC on when I get home.



Deleted User 8570

Re: Final electoral map predictions

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:35 pm

Matt wrote:
NS8401 wrote:
audiophile wrote:I'm probably the only one in the family (including in-laws) not voting for Trump.

These are union households too.
I'm gonna be glued to it tonight... either way it goes it will be quite interesting...
Agreed, I'll have FNC on when I get home.
I'm going with CNN.



Matt
Posts: 982
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 12:18 pm
Location: Ann Arbor

Re: Final electoral map predictions

Post by Matt » Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:40 pm

NS8401 wrote:
Matt wrote:
NS8401 wrote:
audiophile wrote:I'm probably the only one in the family (including in-laws) not voting for Trump.

These are union households too.
I'm gonna be glued to it tonight... either way it goes it will be quite interesting...
Agreed, I'll have FNC on when I get home.
I'm going with CNN.
I'll flip from time to time, but I like Megyn Kelly and Bret Baier.



Matt
Posts: 982
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 12:18 pm
Location: Ann Arbor

Re: Final electoral map predictions

Post by Matt » Tue Nov 08, 2016 12:40 pm

NS8401 wrote:
Matt wrote:
NS8401 wrote:
audiophile wrote:I'm probably the only one in the family (including in-laws) not voting for Trump.

These are union households too.
I'm gonna be glued to it tonight... either way it goes it will be quite interesting...
Agreed, I'll have FNC on when I get home.
I'm going with CNN.
I'll flip from time to time, but I like Megyn Kelly and Bret Baier.



User avatar
Motown322
Posts: 112
Joined: Thu Nov 29, 2012 12:22 pm

Re: Final electoral map predictions

Post by Motown322 » Tue Nov 08, 2016 1:10 pm

Matt wrote:
I'll flip from time to time, but I like Megyn Kelly and Bret Baier.
Am I the only person that thinks Bret Baier looks like an action figure come to life?



jry
Posts: 268
Joined: Sat Dec 04, 2004 8:14 am
Location: somewhere in the former boonies

Re: Final electoral map predictions

Post by jry » Tue Nov 08, 2016 3:13 pm

IF she wins, it'll be a squeaker. If he wins, it'll be quite large.



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