Does Trump stand a chance?

[Deleted User 10525]

With about a week to go, this thing has been a see saw although Clinton has always been ahead for the most part in the polls. I think its coming down to, do we want The Clinton's back in the Whitehouse? or do we want to take a gamble on some guy who's never held office before? I voted for neither as I felt neither deserved it but with Clinton I know its gonna be a 3rd Obama term. If Trump wins, who knows what will happen.

A Lady I work with, her husband is in the UAW and as is most of his family. They are Democrats but she caught me off guard when she told me they are voting for Trump. I do think Trump can win Ohio but can he carry PA,MI,WI,? I don't know. Could Trump win in an Upset or will he be washed out to sea?

[Bryce]

With about a week to go, this thing has been a see saw although Clinton has always been ahead for the most part in the polls. I think its coming down to, do we want The Clinton's back in the Whitehouse? or do we want to take a gamble on some guy who's never held office before? I voted for neither as I felt neither deserved it but with Clinton I know its gonna be a 3rd Obama term. If Trump wins, who knows what will happen.

A Lady I work with, her husband is in the UAW and as is most of his family. They are Democrats but she caught me off guard when she told me they are voting for Trump. I do think Trump can win Ohio but can he carry PA,MI,WI,? I don't know. Could Trump win in an Upset or will he be washed out to sea?

A look to history may provide an answer...

Veteran news anchor David Brinkly on NBC News Election Night coverage from 1980:

I'd like to ask a question of you folks. We have here what I think reasonably could be called a landslide or certainly something approaching a landslide. Where did it come from? Nobody anticipated it. No polls predicted it. No one saw it coming. How did that happen? I don't want to knock the polls, because I believe in them, and they generally do very good work. One thing I wondered. Have a lot of people -- did a lot of people decide to vote for Reagan, but didn't want to say so?

[Deleted User 4520]

I guess it boils down to whom you ask. But with all this stuff looming around Clinton I am just not sure how people are supporting her. It's like they are ignoring her issues just because they want a dem in office. I'll take my chances with Trump. Maybe a radical change in the oval office is what we need. Can't be any worse than what we have now.

[Deleted User 8570]

With about a week to go, this thing has been a see saw although Clinton has always been ahead for the most part in the polls. I think its coming down to, do we want The Clinton's back in the Whitehouse? or do we want to take a gamble on some guy who's never held office before? I voted for neither as I felt neither deserved it but with Clinton I know its gonna be a 3rd Obama term. If Trump wins, who knows what will happen.

A Lady I work with, her husband is in the UAW and as is most of his family. They are Democrats but she caught me off guard when she told me they are voting for Trump. I do think Trump can win Ohio but can he carry PA,MI,WI,? I don't know. Could Trump win in an Upset or will he be washed out to sea?

A look to history may provide an answer...

Veteran news anchor David Brinkly on NBC News Election Night coverage from 1980:

I'd like to ask a question of you folks. We have here what I think reasonably could be called a landslide or certainly something approaching a landslide. Where did it come from? Nobody anticipated it. No polls predicted it. No one saw it coming. How did that happen? I don't want to knock the polls, because I believe in them, and they generally do very good work. One thing I wondered. Have a lot of people -- did a lot of people decide to vote for Reagan, but didn't want to say so?

Actually the polls largely showed Reagan up 5 or more the whole time. It wasn't some sort of shock. Brinkley not withstanding. There was one very incorrect outlier 10 days before the election that showed him down to Carter. Brinkley must have slept through that election because there's no historical parallel except:
Reagan was up the whole time in 1980.
Reagan won easily.
Clinton has been up the whole time in 2016.
Therefore...

You do the rest, my fingers hurt.

[Turkeytop]

With the latest Clinton e mail revelations, I'd say he has her on the ropes. But will he keep her there and finish the job? Probably not. He'll go off and start attacking the referee or his own coach.

[Deleted User 8570]

With the latest Clinton e mail revelations, I'd say he has her on the ropes. But will he keep her there and finish the job? Probably not. He'll go off and start attacking the referee or his own coach.

The math simply isn't there... the Electoral votes just don't line up for Trump.

[Bryce]

Reagan was up the whole time in 1980.

You're wrong. April through July polls had Carter ahead by as much as 15 points.

October/November had Reagan up by 4 to 5 points, depending on the poll. There is a big difference between four or five points and a 44 state landslide.

[audiophile]

And that's not peanuts, my friend.

[Deleted User 8570]

Reagan was up the whole time in 1980.

You're wrong. April through July polls had Carter ahead by as much as 15 points.

October/November had Reagan up by 4 to 5 points, depending on the poll. There is a big difference between four or five points and a 44 state landslide.

Someone was up by 15... hint... not Carter... by the end the polls were dead on.

I'll let a Conservative source explain it to you... you're wrong...

http://www.redstate.com/streiff/2016/10 ... rter-1980/



I'm feeling generous today... here's another more through debunking of this crap from March:
http://www.redstate.com/dan_mclaughlin/ ... ld-reagan/

[Deleted User 9015]

Polling methods are also a lot more precise 36 years later. Either way, I could see Trump keeping it close, but it is difficult to see him taking it. If I were to be completely honest, a Trump presidency is more intriguing than a Clinton presidency. Put a "businessman" in there and let's see how it goes in the 21st century. They both suck, so go wild with it, it will make for a funny four years.

[audiophile]

You would need to fix your AC.

All that belly laughing would make you sweat.

[Bryce]

http://www.snopes.com/carter-reagan-polls/

public opinion polls taken in October 1980 showed Democrat Jimmy Carter holding as much as an eight-point lead over Republican Ronald Reagan (a Gallup poll two weeks before the election had Carter at 47% and Reagan at 39%), yet Reagan won a landslide victory in the general election, beating Carter 489 to 49 in electoral votes and by almost 10% in the popular vote. (It should be noted that 6.6% of the popular vote also went to a third-party candidate, John Anderson.)

[Deleted User 9015]

You would need to fix your AC.

All that belly laughing would make you sweat.

lmao I have moved on from that car, unfortunately. There is something character about a car with a glaring mechanical problem. Now I need to have a spring replaced in another one.

[Deleted User 8570]

http://www.snopes.com/carter-reagan-polls/

public opinion polls taken in October 1980 showed Democrat Jimmy Carter holding as much as an eight-point lead over Republican Ronald Reagan (a Gallup poll two weeks before the election had Carter at 47% and Reagan at 39%), yet Reagan won a landslide victory in the general election, beating Carter 489 to 49 in electoral votes and by almost 10% in the popular vote. (It should be noted that 6.6% of the popular vote also went to a third-party candidate, John Anderson.)

Ok... you're still wrong and the generally reliable Snopes wasn't as through as they should have been:

The legend of Reagan’s epic comeback is largely the result of anomalous Gallup polling, which even showed a Carter advantage over the final month of the campaign. But if RealClearPolitics or Pollster.com had existed in 1980, the conventional wisdom would have been a little different. In fact, Reagan held a lead from mid-September onward and had a two or three point lead heading into the debates. Private polling conducted for the Reagan and Carter campaigns showed the same thing. Reagan’s 10 point victory is a precedent for sweeping undecided voters, but it isn’t a model for a come-from-behind victory.

https://newrepublic.com/article/107171/ ... eback-myth

In other words... the Gallup polling was way away from everybody else. It was not the norm. It was an anomaly, an outlier, very off, garbage, wrong, poor polling. I'm out of adjectives... the Reagan "comeback" is a myth. Even after I posted a chart showing how Reagan was destroying Carter from May through July and then it narrowed but he always led didn't give you pause... do you just require being right or something? You lost this one. Gallup was a standard and that's why everybody picked it up as gospel but all the other pollsters called it correctly. I presume the Brinkley quote you posted was said because of the Gallup poll. Reagan was always the favorite as the campaign drug on...

[Bryce]

Interestingly, I don't see any of the polling companies named that made Gallup the "outlier". As far as I remember, Gallup was the gold standard of that time and place.