Does Trump stand a chance?

[Deleted User 8570]

Interestingly, I don't see any of the polling companies named that made Gallup the "outlier". As far as I remember, Gallup was the gold standard of that time and place.

Which is exactly why it's remembered as a comeback... but the folks saying it aren't exactly Reagan haters... if anything they are worshippers of Saint Ronnie....

[Deleted User 4520]

This is why there shouldn't be early voting. Major revelations may come after the fact and therefore it would be too late. You cannot change your vote. Those early voters will have to live with their decision. I can see some value to early voting but stuff like this really stresses maybe you should wait until election day.

With the latest Clinton e mail revelations, I'd say he has her on the ropes. But will he keep her there and finish the job? Probably not. He'll go off and start attacking the referee or his own coach.

[Deleted User 8570]

This is why there shouldn't be early voting. Major revelations may come after the fact and therefore it would be too late. You cannot change your vote. Those early voters will have to live with their decision. I can see some value to early voting but stuff like this really stresses maybe you should wait until election day.

With the latest Clinton e mail revelations, I'd say he has her on the ropes. But will he keep her there and finish the job? Probably not. He'll go off and start attacking the referee or his own coach.

I bet there are more partisans than undecideds there...

[MWmetalhead]

Trump absolutely stands a chance. An increasingly better chance, it would appear.

Trump returns to Michigan on Monday, interestingly enough.

[Deleted User 4520]

From the reports I've been hearing, Trumps rallies have had H*** turnouts as compared to Clinton's rallies. The question remains, will those people show up at the polls?

[bmw]

Trump absolutely stands a chance. An increasingly better chance, it would appear.

Trump returns to Michigan on Monday, interestingly enough.

Honestly I think he's wasting his time here in MI. I think his path looks like this:

Hold:
Arizona
Georgia

Take:
Florida
Ohio
North Carolina

That leaves:
Pennsylvania
Iowa
Nevada
Maine CD2
Colorado
New Hampshire

Pennsylvania alone from that last group would do it. Otherwise he needs Iowa + Maine CD2 and then also EITHER Colorado OR New Hampshire + Nevada.

PA is going to very tough, as is New Hampshire. I think his easiest path goes through Colorado. Unless he can pull off a miracle and pick off either Wisconsin, Michigan, or Minnesota, and even of those 3 I think Michigan would be the least likely.

[Deleted User 8570]

Trump absolutely stands a chance. An increasingly better chance, it would appear.

Trump returns to Michigan on Monday, interestingly enough.

Honestly I think he's wasting his time here in MI. I think his path looks like this:

Hold:
Arizona
Georgia

Take:
Florida
Ohio
North Carolina

That leaves:
Pennsylvania
Iowa
Nevada
Maine CD2
Colorado
New Hampshire

Pennsylvania alone from that last group would do it. Otherwise he needs Iowa + Maine CD2 and then also EITHER Colorado OR New Hampshire + Nevada.

PA is going to very tough, as is New Hampshire. I think his easiest path goes through Colorado. Unless he can pull off a miracle and pick off either Wisconsin, Michigan, or Minnesota, and even of those 3 I think Michigan would be the least likely.

She's had consistent leads in North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Colorado and New Hampshire. He looks like he'll take Ohio. Iowa is a dead heat. None of Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin is in play and probably not Pennsylvania in all honesty even though you listed it. Maine CD2 has been double digits for her. She's in the 323-209 range with Iowa a tie according to EV... They've missed a state per election but never enough to get the election wrong. He's way down right now and would need a miracle. I don't really understand why the email thing would effect much at this point... all these "scandals" have been out there for a while now and she's still up... I doubt there are that many people that will be swung to Trump by the news to change the likely outcome... what your has there is a very very tall order indeed...

[Deleted User 4520]

Every state should be either winner take all or get a percentage based on votes and not a mix of both. It makes no sense that states have different rules. Everything should be uniform across the board. Even better just a popular vote should be used but that would likely never happen.

[TC Talks]

Trump absolutely stands a chance. An increasingly better chance, it would appear.

Trump returns to Michigan on Monday, interestingly enough.

As someone who is a fan of numbers, explain how he has a chance? The electoral college votes just don't add up for him.

[TC Talks]

Every state should be either winner take all or get a percentage based on votes and not a mix of both. It makes no sense that states have different rules. Everything should be uniform across the board. Even better just a popular vote should be used but that would likely never happen.

Do some reading about States Rights before the Constitutionalists in here take your head off.

[Bryce]

Do some reading about States Rights before the Constitutionalists in here take your head off.

Thanks. Saved me bunches of typing!

[bmw]

Here's what I would do for the electoral college:

-Keep the same 538 electoral votes
-Keep the same number of electoral votes per state
-Have each state be winner-take-all for 100 of the 538 electors (2 per state)
-Have the remaining 438 electors assigned based on who wins each individual congressional district.

That would be an almost parallel representation as to how Congress is set up.

[Deleted User 8570]

Here's what I would do for the electoral college:

-Keep the same 538 electoral votes
-Keep the same number of electoral votes per state
-Have each state be winner-take-all for 100 of the 538 electors (2 per state)
-Have the remaining 438 electors assigned based on who wins each individual congressional district.

That would be an almost parallel representation as to how Congress is set up.

It would also allow both parties to gerrymander the presidency... which is exactly what's wrong with congress... part of the reason the Republicans have their house majority is because they gerrymandered it to the hilt to get it that way... only a few states allow non-partisan commissions to draw the lines for the districts. If all the states go that way and it's uniform then you have an argument. As it is now?

[Bryce]

With about a week to go, this thing has been a see saw although Clinton has always been ahead for the most part in the polls. I think its coming down to, do we want The Clinton's back in the Whitehouse? or do we want to take a gamble on some guy who's never held office before? I voted for neither as I felt neither deserved it but with Clinton I know its gonna be a 3rd Obama term. If Trump wins, who knows what will happen.

A Lady I work with, her husband is in the UAW and as is most of his family. They are Democrats but she caught me off guard when she told me they are voting for Trump. I do think Trump can win Ohio but can he carry PA,MI,WI,? I don't know. Could Trump win in an Upset or will he be washed out to sea?

A look to history may provide an answer...

Veteran news anchor David Brinkly on NBC News Election Night coverage from 1980:

I'd like to ask a question of you folks. We have here what I think reasonably could be called a landslide or certainly something approaching a landslide. Where did it come from? Nobody anticipated it. No polls predicted it. No one saw it coming. How did that happen? I don't want to knock the polls, because I believe in them, and they generally do very good work. One thing I wondered. Have a lot of people -- did a lot of people decide to vote for Reagan, but didn't want to say so?

For most all the pollsters and pundents to be so wrong, the above scenario is quite likely to be more fact than fiction.

[audiophile]

The Hillary ads were 99% negative - her ADS said nothing about what she would do, just what Donald said in the past.

Trump ADS were positive and almost Reagan-esque.