Prediction: Trump will win the general election.

[MWmetalhead]

I'm not quite in the "Never Trump" crowd, but I gotta say, it won't take much for me to move there.

90 days ago - I would've never voted for Hillary. Today - I am actually not ruling out that possibility.

[audiophile]

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-conten ... ection.pdf



51-39 Clinton

The clown is going to get steamrolled.

This was the year to run a real conservative. Unfortunately Trump is more of grab bag - you have no idea what the heck you're getting!

[Bryce]

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-conten ... ection.pdf



51-39 Clinton

The clown is going to get steamrolled.

This was the year to run a real conservative. Unfortunately Trump is more of grab bag - you have no idea what the heck you're getting!

Just like Forest Gump's box of chocolates.

[JackAttack FM]

Trump hasn't won anything yet.
The primaries chose the delegates and the delegates choose the nominee.

And as far as I've seen the GOP delegates haven't chosen anyone yet.

"A small group of delegates"? You mean like the now hundreds of delegates that are participating in this?
In this "little non-story" that's being covered by the Washington Post, NBC News, CNN, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, the Chicago Tribune, AP and Fortune and Time magazines.

What evidence do I have it will work? None.
What' evidence is there it won't? None.

[bmw]

The primaries chose the delegates and the delegates choose the nominee.

That only applies to the unbound delegates. In the case of the bound delegates, the voters effectively choose the nominee.

Important detail.

[jry]

Todays Rasmussen has Trump up by 4. Among likely voters, Trump has 43% to the witches 39.

[bmw]

It is still a very close race. While Hillary has the edge in a number of swing states, it is not a big lead.

Looking at the electoral map, Florida is the state that has to be most concerning for Trump. If Florida goes democrat, Trump has to nearly run the table in a number of other swing states.

[Matt]

It is still a very close race. While Hillary has the edge in a number of swing states, it is not a big lead.

Looking at the electoral map, Florida is the state that has to be most concerning for Trump. If Florida goes democrat, Trump has to nearly run the table in a number of other swing states.

No, its not. Trump is going to be lucky to get 180 electoral votes. He's getting his ass kicked in most national polls. Hell he's behind by six in the slurp slurp slurp, I mean FOX News poll. He's doing terribly in swing states:

https://ballotpedia.org/Ballotpedia%27s ... poll,_2016

Florida: Clinton +14
Iowa: Clinton +4
Michigan: Clinton +17
North Carolina: Clinton +10
Ohio: Clinton +9
Pennsylvania: Clinton +14
Virginia: Clinton +7

You Trumpkins are in for a rough election night.

[bmw]

Really? Ballotpedia?

Those numbers aren't anywhere close to the polling averages on Real Clear Politics.

[Deleted User 8570]

Really? Ballotpedia?

Those numbers aren't anywhere close to the polling averages on Real Clear Politics.

Just for the record I've been using RCP for the polls thread so that's the only aggregator I trust...

[bmw]

Trump is at 1542 delegates. That is +305 over what is required. You really think there's a chance that not only do they get a rule change, but that over 300 delegates will jump ship?

That is such a long shot that even sports books are no longer offering action on who will be the nominee.

Denying Trump the nomination at this stage in the game would not save the party - it would destroy it.

It doesn't matter what I think. These are events that are taking place.
The GOP is maneuvering themselves into a position to dump the guy at the convention.
And it doesn't matter what Vegas thinks either. They're out to make money.

Is it possible hundreds of delegates could vote their "conscience"?...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... story.html

There's 127 unbound delegates. Which leaves Trump 1,415 bound. Which puts you at about 180 delegates that would need to be allowed to vote their "conscience." And only 57 votes needed on the rules committee to allow them to do that.
When you put the actual numbers in front of this, anything is possible.

And thinking that not choosing a nominee who can barely get out of the 30's in polls, can't raise enough money and by his rhetoric can't campaign with other Republicans is going to wreck the party is absurd.

As I said, this was never more than fantasy talk.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/07/15 ... -is-yours/

The vote wasn't even close.

[Deleted User 8570]

Trump is at 1542 delegates. That is +305 over what is required. You really think there's a chance that not only do they get a rule change, but that over 300 delegates will jump ship?

That is such a long shot that even sports books are no longer offering action on who will be the nominee.

Denying Trump the nomination at this stage in the game would not save the party - it would destroy it.

It doesn't matter what I think. These are events that are taking place.
The GOP is maneuvering themselves into a position to dump the guy at the convention.
And it doesn't matter what Vegas thinks either. They're out to make money.

Is it possible hundreds of delegates could vote their "conscience"?...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... story.html

There's 127 unbound delegates. Which leaves Trump 1,415 bound. Which puts you at about 180 delegates that would need to be allowed to vote their "conscience." And only 57 votes needed on the rules committee to allow them to do that.
When you put the actual numbers in front of this, anything is possible.

And thinking that not choosing a nominee who can barely get out of the 30's in polls, can't raise enough money and by his rhetoric can't campaign with other Republicans is going to wreck the party is absurd.

As I said, this was never more than fantasy talk.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/07/15 ... -is-yours/

The vote wasn't even close.

He was desperate...

[Turkeytop]

Both parties are probably thinking right now, "If we only had a different candidate, we could win this election in a landslide."

[bmw]

Both parties are probably thinking right now, "If we only had a different candidate, we could win this election in a landslide."

I know that this is the general consensus, but if you can't make it out of your own party's primary, how are you supposed to win a general election?

[Turkeytop]

I know that this is the general consensus, but if you can't make it out of your own party's primary, how are you supposed to win a general election?

But both parties has plenty of choices and both parties made bad choices.