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Prediction: Trump will win the general election.

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bmw
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Prediction: Trump will win the general election.

Post by bmw » Thu May 19, 2016 11:39 am

I initially said I needed to see some debates, but I have enough information to make an educated prediction.

Once Paul Ryan is on board with Trump (and he eventually will be), other mainstream republicans will fall in line. Trump's numbers will improve. This will all happen during the next month and a half, all while Bernie refuses to exit the democrat nomination race. A substantial number of Bernie supporters won't vote for Hillary in the general, and the under-30 crowd will largely stay home this election cycle. Some of the never-Trumpers will eventually come around and hold their breath while pulling the lever for Trump, and SCOTUS nomination power will be a large part of what drives that.

The demographics of those who will actually vote combined with the political mood of the country support Trump.

Popular vote predictions:
46 Trump
45 Hillary
6 Libertarian

The electoral college will be razor-tight. I'm going 272-266.

*this is all predicated on Hillary being the nominee If something happens and somebody else gets it, then all bets are off. There's also a slim chance that Trump completely goes off the rails, but I think he has enough experience now that this won't happen.



Matt
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Re: Prediction: Trump will win the general election.

Post by Matt » Thu May 19, 2016 12:26 pm

I agree to some extent, with the same caveat: this only applies if Hillary is the nominee.

I don't think Hillary vs. Trump will be particularly close. She is a TERRIBLE candidate, and the Republican side will have the enthusiasm gap in their favor. There will be a significant #NeverTrump vote, of which, I am a member, but I don't think it will change the outcome.

If Hillary is indicted or for some other reason is not the nominee, the Democrat should win.

The point is that Hillary is soooooooooooooooo bad, she could get Trump elected. Obama has been awful as well and is responsible for the ascendancy of Trump.



jry
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Location: somewhere in the former boonies

Re: Prediction: Trump will win the general election.

Post by jry » Thu May 19, 2016 1:03 pm

This is not a risky prediction and the oddsmakers will probably have this at even money. It's always been Trumps to lose.



bmw
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Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: Prediction: Trump will win the general election.

Post by bmw » Thu May 19, 2016 1:19 pm

Vegas has Hillary right now at about a 2.5 to 1 favorite. The CNN Predictions Market is similar, with Trump being 36% to win and Hillary 64%. So Hillary is still considered the odds-on favorite.

I do agree that a more appealing democrat would probably beat Trump pretty badly. And I"m not talking Bernie Sanders. I just find it funny how republicans constantly complain that Trump is such a bad nominee that he is going to blow it for the party; yet I don't hear near that level of complaining from the democrat party regarding their almost-presumptive nominee.



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Bryce
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Re: Prediction: Trump will win the general election.

Post by Bryce » Thu May 19, 2016 2:32 pm

Matt wrote:Obama has been awful as well and is responsible for the ascendancy of Trump.
As is the Republican establishment in the House and Senate.


I survived four years of Carter. I imagine I can survive one year of Biden and three years of Harris.

Deleted User 8570

Re: Prediction: Trump will win the general election.

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Thu May 19, 2016 3:56 pm

Bryce wrote:
Matt wrote:Obama has been awful as well and is responsible for the ascendancy of Trump.
As is the Republican establishment in the House and Senate.
More because Republicans hate that they keep losing the White House and that their unrealistic congressional dreams aren't being met because they can't be...



Matt
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Location: Ann Arbor

Re: Prediction: Trump will win the general election.

Post by Matt » Thu Jun 16, 2016 11:45 am

bmw wrote:I initially said I needed to see some debates, but I have enough information to make an educated prediction.

Once Paul Ryan is on board with Trump (and he eventually will be), other mainstream republicans will fall in line. Trump's numbers will improve. This will all happen during the next month and a half, all while Bernie refuses to exit the democrat nomination race. A substantial number of Bernie supporters won't vote for Hillary in the general, and the under-30 crowd will largely stay home this election cycle. Some of the never-Trumpers will eventually come around and hold their breath while pulling the lever for Trump, and SCOTUS nomination power will be a large part of what drives that.

The demographics of those who will actually vote combined with the political mood of the country support Trump.

Popular vote predictions:
46 Trump
45 Hillary
6 Libertarian

The electoral college will be razor-tight. I'm going 272-266.

*this is all predicated on Hillary being the nominee If something happens and somebody else gets it, then all bets are off. There's also a slim chance that Trump completely goes off the rails, but I think he has enough experience now that this won't happen.
Bumped for :lol:

I'm certainly not inculpable of predicting idiocy in this thread:
Matt wrote:I agree to some extent, with the same caveat: this only applies if Hillary is the nominee.

I don't think Hillary vs. Trump will be particularly close. She is a TERRIBLE candidate, and the Republican side will have the enthusiasm gap in their favor. There will be a significant #NeverTrump vote, of which, I am a member, but I don't think it will change the outcome.

If Hillary is indicted or for some other reason is not the nominee, the Democrat should win.

The point is that Hillary is soooooooooooooooo bad, she could get Trump elected. Obama has been awful as well and is responsible for the ascendancy of Trump.
The bolded statement is the only one I still believe. I believe Hillary is going to romp.



JackAttack FM
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Re: Prediction: Trump will win the general election.

Post by JackAttack FM » Thu Jun 16, 2016 12:25 pm

Its all moot if the GOP leadership gets its act together.
Trump will not be the nominee.



bmw
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Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: Prediction: Trump will win the general election.

Post by bmw » Thu Jun 16, 2016 12:43 pm

JackAttack FM wrote:Its all moot if the GOP leadership gets its act together.
Trump will not be the nominee.
:rollin

The GOP leadership had MANY MONTHS to do this during the primaries, and they failed miserably. If they couldn't stop Trump when they had the power to do so if they had coalesced behind a single candidate, what makes you think they can do it now?

The GOP leadership is still a mess and will be a mess for the foreseeable future.



ftballfan
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Re: Prediction: Trump will win the general election.

Post by ftballfan » Thu Jun 16, 2016 7:34 pm

I think it will end up being a four way race between Trump, Clinton, Johnson (Libertarian), and Stein (Green). Nobody will get to 50% of the popular vote (i.e. 2000, where Nader swung Florida (and probably other states) in favor of Bush)


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screen glare
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Re: Prediction: Trump will win the general election.

Post by screen glare » Sat Jun 18, 2016 9:03 am

Here's a crazy but not unlikely situation: both Trump and Sanders break off and each run as third party candidates.

The establishment GOP is going to oust Trump at the convention because they now see that with him as the nominee they lose not only the white house but also congressional races. And Trump won't take his marbles and go home because he's an egotistical bully. Likewise Bernie Sanders is equally in love with Bernie Sanders and will never concede to Hillary without also then running as a third party candidate.

Neither Trump nor Sanders will ever go away as candidates. They are addicted to the fanatical adoration of their followers. They have no ability to accept the outcomes of the conventions. Neither man has a gracious bone in their bodies. Neither is a team player. Both will break away and run as third party candidates and take their legions of voters with them.

But Hillary will win anyway - by the skin of her teeth.

The question is - who will the GOP end up nominating surrounded by the tightest security at any political convention ever?



JackAttack FM
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Joined: Thu Jan 05, 2012 5:50 pm

Re: Prediction: Trump will win the general election.

Post by JackAttack FM » Sun Jun 19, 2016 5:59 pm

bmw wrote:
JackAttack FM wrote:Its all moot if the GOP leadership gets its act together.
Trump will not be the nominee.
The GOP leadership had MANY MONTHS to do this during the primaries, and they failed miserably. If they couldn't stop Trump when they had the power to do so if they had coalesced behind a single candidate, what makes you think they can do it now?

The GOP leadership is still a mess and will be a mess for the foreseeable future.
Your "educated" opinions haven't been that close.
You said in another topic about the primaries in MD, CT, RI, DE, WV, NJ, IN and CA...
bmw wrote:300 in those particular states is a bit on the high side, IMO. 250-275 might be attainable though.
Trump got 405.

Its easy to pick a loud mouth Archie Bunker type as the winner in Republican primaries when the predominant voters are Archie Bunker type retirees over 65 that automatically get mailed a Republican absentee ballot.

Now Trump is stuck in the 30's in the polls and threatening to cost the GOP the majority in the Senate and maybe even the House.

You keep saying the GOP had their chance "months ago." What specifically was their chance? Persuading donors to fund one campaign over another? Hiring top strategists for one chosen candidate? Or just fixing elections?
Haven't read any specifics yet.

What I'm saying is simple. The GOP has it within their power to deny him the nomination at the convention.
I think they're now on their way toward doing that.



Deleted User 8570

Re: Prediction: Trump will win the general election.

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Sun Jun 19, 2016 6:36 pm

JackAttack FM wrote:
bmw wrote:
JackAttack FM wrote:Its all moot if the GOP leadership gets its act together.
Trump will not be the nominee.
The GOP leadership had MANY MONTHS to do this during the primaries, and they failed miserably. If they couldn't stop Trump when they had the power to do so if they had coalesced behind a single candidate, what makes you think they can do it now?

The GOP leadership is still a mess and will be a mess for the foreseeable future.
Your "educated" opinions haven't been that close.
You said in another topic about the primaries in MD, CT, RI, DE, WV, NJ, IN and CA...
bmw wrote:300 in those particular states is a bit on the high side, IMO. 250-275 might be attainable though.
Trump got 405.

Its easy to pick a loud mouth Archie Bunker type as the winner in Republican primaries when the predominant voters are Archie Bunker type retirees over 65 that automatically get mailed a Republican absentee ballot.

Now Trump is stuck in the 30's in the polls and threatening to cost the GOP the majority in the Senate and maybe even the House.

You keep saying the GOP had their chance "months ago." What specifically was their chance? Persuading donors to fund one campaign over another? Hiring top strategists for one chosen candidate? Or just fixing elections?
Haven't read any specifics yet.

What I'm saying is simple. The GOP has it within their power to deny him the nomination at the convention.
I think they're now on their way toward doing that.
To put up what exactly? Potential saviors are turning it down and the Stop Trump Express is limping into its next station on a low battery... There is no chance they dump him and their fortunes improve. The damage is done.



JackAttack FM
Posts: 295
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Re: Prediction: Trump will win the general election.

Post by JackAttack FM » Mon Jun 20, 2016 12:33 am

To put up what exactly? Potential saviors are turning it down and the Stop Trump Express is limping into its next station on a low battery... There is no chance they dump him and their fortunes improve. The damage is done.
What are you even talking about? Have you watched or read the news before you posted? Or did this just sound cool when you wrote it?



Deleted User 8570

Re: Prediction: Trump will win the general election.

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Mon Jun 20, 2016 8:02 am

JackAttack FM wrote:
To put up what exactly? Potential saviors are turning it down and the Stop Trump Express is limping into its next station on a low battery... There is no chance they dump him and their fortunes improve. The damage is done.
What are you even talking about? Have you watched or read the news before you posted? Or did this just sound cool when you wrote it?
Who are they going to nominate instead? Romney said no. Ryan said maybe next time. Sasso declined. That random lawyer William Kristol found said no. A few others said no. It really looks highly unlikely they'll get much traction with it. The idea to unbound the delegates on conscience grounds has been kicking around for a couple weeks now but it's iffy at best that it can get through the rules committee. If they did it then it's only for 2020 and beyond. They wouldn't suddenly become competitive in 2016 and have a chance to beat Hillary by doing this because they'd alienate many Trump supporters and be in an even bigger hole. It's a desperate to save the party long term kind of move. I doubt they'll get all the way through with it.

To answer your other question... Yeah I pay attention to this stuff... I was just trying to be cute.



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