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Cruz Campaign is Done

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JackAttack FM
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Cruz Campaign is Done

Post by JackAttack FM » Fri Apr 22, 2016 2:38 pm

Now that Cruz is mathematically eliminated from getting the 1,237 delegates before Cleveland and is the GOP candidate with the furthest chance to win in November he should end his campaign.

The Cruz campaign took a major blow in the polls today.
The latest Republican primary poll for Indiana from WTHR Indianapolis now shows Trump with a 6% lead over Cruz, beyond the margin of error.

WTHR/Howey Politics (+/-4%)
Trump 37%
Cruz 31%
Kasich 22%

Most of Indiana is a heavily conservative and always goes Republican in presidential elections. And before any polling in Indiana the state was considered a lock for Cruz.

Cruz is running third in most of this Tuesday's five primaries. He's on track to only get maybe at most 150 more delegates from here on out. Mostly from Nebraska, Montana and South Dakota.
This, combined with his inability to show any improvement in beating Hillary in November and a crushing defeat in the electoral college now make the Cruz campaign moot.



Matt
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Location: Ann Arbor

Re: Cruz Campaign is Done

Post by Matt » Fri Apr 22, 2016 4:27 pm




bmw
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Re: Cruz Campaign is Done

Post by bmw » Fri Apr 22, 2016 5:27 pm

I remain confident in my now longtime prediction that Trump will reach 1237 and win on the first ballot. If recent polling in Indiana and California holds, he might not even need any unbound delegates to get there, except maybe some of Pennsylvania's, at least some of which will undoubtedly vote for Trump on first ballot.

Let's also not forget that New Jersey is winner-take-all with 51 delegates on June 7 and Trump will easily win all those delegates. If he performs at least to expectation this coming Tuesday, where he is expected to sweep all 5 states, then the 1237 is his to lose IMO.



Deleted User 8570

Re: Cruz Campaign is Done

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Fri Apr 22, 2016 5:45 pm

bmw wrote:I remain confident in my now longtime prediction that Trump will reach 1237 and win on the first ballot. If recent polling in Indiana and California holds, he might not even need any unbound delegates to get there, except maybe some of Pennsylvania's, at least some of which will undoubtedly vote for Trump on first ballot.

Let's also not forget that New Jersey is winner-take-all with 51 delegates on June 7 and Trump will easily win all those delegates. If he performs at least to expectation this coming Tuesday, where he is expected to sweep all 5 states, then the 1237 is his to lose IMO.
Cruz is toast until 2020.



JackAttack FM
Posts: 297
Joined: Thu Jan 05, 2012 5:50 pm

Re: Cruz Campaign is Done

Post by JackAttack FM » Fri Apr 22, 2016 7:59 pm

Mat wrote:This post makes my confidence in Cruz go up.
ttp://www.mibuzzboard.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.ph ... gh#p499914
Looky here: http://www.mgoblue.com/sports/m-footbl/ ... 41590.html
:rollin
Yeah, like one thing has to do with the other.
Its good to know that's still getting under the skin of a Wolverine fan!


I do see there's no reply disputing the math on this one.



Deleted User 8570

Re: Cruz Campaign is Done

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Fri Apr 22, 2016 8:24 pm

JackAttack FM wrote:
Mat wrote:This post makes my confidence in Cruz go up.
ttp://www.mibuzzboard.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.ph ... gh#p499914
Looky here: http://www.mgoblue.com/sports/m-footbl/ ... 41590.html
:rollin
Yeah, like one thing has to do with the other.
Its good to know that's still getting under the skin of a Wolverine fan!


I do see there's no reply disputing the math on this one.
That's because he's in trouble mathematically and Matt knows it.



JackAttack FM
Posts: 297
Joined: Thu Jan 05, 2012 5:50 pm

Re: Cruz Campaign is Done

Post by JackAttack FM » Fri Apr 22, 2016 8:53 pm

bmw wrote:I remain confident in my now longtime prediction that Trump will reach 1237 and win on the first ballot. If recent polling in Indiana and California holds, he might not even need any unbound delegates to get there, except maybe some of Pennsylvania's, at least some of which will undoubtedly vote for Trump on first ballot.

Let's also not forget that New Jersey is winner-take-all with 51 delegates on June 7 and Trump will easily win all those delegates. If he performs at least to expectation this coming Tuesday, where he is expected to sweep all 5 states, then the 1237 is his to lose IMO.
Yes, I'm afraid you're right. That is a likely scenario. He's shown leading in almost all of this Tuesday's primaries, in Cali and West Virginia and now Indiana. I doubt there'd be much traction gained by Cruz in Oregon, Washington or New Mexico since they're all proportional. Its even possible Cruz could fall to third in the total popular vote in the upcoming contests. Places like Montana or South Dakota don't offer much.

Well, if Trump does get it I'll have to vote Libertarian or Constitution. (I liked the former US Taxpayers Party name better)
NS8401 wrote: Cruz is toast until 2020.
If he doesn't get this nomination (which is a foregone conclusion) he's sunk his political career before he's 50. As in, he's not the conservative that can win the presidency because he'd be embarrsssed in a general election.



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MWmetalhead
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Re: Cruz Campaign is Done

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Apr 23, 2016 7:45 am

It'll be an open convention. No one is going to get to 1237. Cruz is very much alive, although I think he'd lose in a head-to-head match up against Hillary (probably pretty badly).

On a related note, this whole process has proven the mainstream media have an incredibly piss poor understanding of how the delegate award process works. The extent of misreporting on that front is staggering.


Rock 95.5 in Chicago is the worst sounding major market rock station in the history of corporate radio.

JackAttack FM
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Re: Cruz Campaign is Done

Post by JackAttack FM » Sat Apr 23, 2016 10:54 am

MWmetalhead wrote:It'll be an open convention. No one is going to get to 1237. Cruz is very much alive, although I think he'd lose in a head-to-head match up against Hillary (probably pretty badly).

On a related note, this whole process has proven the mainstream media have an incredibly piss poor understanding of how the delegate award process works. The extent of misreporting on that front is staggering.
How can Cruz be alive if he cannot reach 1,237 in the primaries nor win the general election in November? That's like a lose-lose.

Trump needs less then 400 delegates. If he just takes the winner-take-all states he's leading in now, MD, CT, RI, DE, WV, NJ, IN and CA, that's 415.
Then there's Pennsylvania where he's polling near 50%. And even if the WTHR poll is wrong there's still enough proportional delegates in Washington, Oregon and New Mexico to be had.
Indiana is also an open primary with a large turnout expected which, favors Trump.

It goes without saying Trump would need California. Where he's been polling near 50% there too with an almost 20 point lead.

Even if Cruz wins 200 more delegates in the remaining primaries (like I said, I think its going to be no more then 150) and on a second ballot gets all of Rubio's delegates and all the delegates from the candidates that dropped out he'd still have to come up with about 300 more delegates.
That's not a great prospect for a guy that can't offer free golf vacations (Trump) or win the electoral college (Kasich).

I also don't think the national media has been that bad describing the delegate process lately. They have to talk about two parties with different types of contests in every state. I do think they were unprepared at the start but, they've been getting better at it.
You try to describe each state's process in less the a minute and a half and make it sound like you're not favoring one candidate. Its a tight rope.



Deleted User 8570

Re: Cruz Campaign is Done

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Sat Apr 23, 2016 11:09 am

JackAttack FM wrote:
MWmetalhead wrote:It'll be an open convention. No one is going to get to 1237. Cruz is very much alive, although I think he'd lose in a head-to-head match up against Hillary (probably pretty badly).

On a related note, this whole process has proven the mainstream media have an incredibly piss poor understanding of how the delegate award process works. The extent of misreporting on that front is staggering.
How can Cruz be alive if he cannot reach 1,237 in the primaries nor win the general election in November? That's like a lose-lose.

Trump needs less then 400 delegates. If he just takes the winner-take-all states he's leading in now, MD, CT, RI, DE, WV, NJ, IN and CA, that's 415.
Then there's Pennsylvania where he's polling near 50%. And even if the WTHR poll is wrong there's still enough proportional delegates in Washington, Oregon and New Mexico to be had.
Indiana is also an open primary with a large turnout expected which, favors Trump.

It goes without saying Trump would need California. Where he's been polling near 50% there too with an almost 20 point lead.

Even if Cruz wins 200 more delegates in the remaining primaries (like I said, I think its going to be no more then 150) and on a second ballot gets all of Rubio's delegates and all the delegates from the candidates that dropped out he'd still have to come up with about 300 more delegates.
That's not a great prospect for a guy that can't offer free golf vacations (Trump) or win the electoral college (Kasich).

I also don't think the national media has been that bad describing the delegate process lately. They have to talk about two parties with different types of contests in every state. I do think they were unprepared at the start but, they've been getting better at it.
You try to describe each state's process in less the a minute and a half and make it sound like you're not favoring one candidate. Its a tight rope.
I was reading that Indiana could be Cruz's last stand.



bmw
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Re: Cruz Campaign is Done

Post by bmw » Sat Apr 23, 2016 2:44 pm

JackAttack FM wrote:Trump needs less then 400 delegates. If he just takes the winner-take-all states he's leading in now, MD, CT, RI, DE, WV, NJ, IN and CA, that's 415.
It is not quite that simple. Most of those states are winner-take-all per congressional district with some delegates going to the overall state winner. This means that Cruz and Kasich will get at least some delegates from some of these states where one or the other beats Trump in a particular district.

California in particular is difficult to predict since it has so many districts. Whoever wins the state will likely get about 2/3 of its delegates with the other 1/3 being split between the other 2 candidates.

Nevertheless, Trump getting to 1237 depends really on 2 states - Indiana and California. If Trump wins either state by at least 5 points or wins both states, each by a small margin, he has a good shot at 1237.



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MWmetalhead
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Re: Cruz Campaign is Done

Post by MWmetalhead » Sat Apr 23, 2016 6:19 pm

How can Cruz be alive if he cannot reach 1,237 in the primaries nor win the general election in November? That's like a lose-lose.
I was referring strictly to the GOP nomination.
I also don't think the national media has been that bad describing the delegate process lately. They have to talk about two parties with different types of contests in every state. I do think they were unprepared at the start but, they've been getting better at it.
You try to describe each state's process in less the a minute and a half and make it sound like you're not favoring one candidate. Its a tight rope.
"Lately" is the operative word; they were oversimplifying the process in their reports for many, many weeks and then acted shocked when it turned out their methodology for calculating delegates was wrong.

A minute and a half??? There are cable news channels spending HOURS on this stuff every single day with a slew of people devoted to covering the races. They *still* got it wrong!!!

Trump is changing his tactics now because he knew the nomination was in danger of slipping out of his grasp.


Rock 95.5 in Chicago is the worst sounding major market rock station in the history of corporate radio.

Deleted User 8570

Re: Cruz Campaign is Done

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Sat Apr 23, 2016 7:55 pm

MWmetalhead wrote:
How can Cruz be alive if he cannot reach 1,237 in the primaries nor win the general election in November? That's like a lose-lose.
I was referring strictly to the GOP nomination.
I also don't think the national media has been that bad describing the delegate process lately. They have to talk about two parties with different types of contests in every state. I do think they were unprepared at the start but, they've been getting better at it.
You try to describe each state's process in less the a minute and a half and make it sound like you're not favoring one candidate. Its a tight rope.
"Lately" is the operative word; they were oversimplifying the process in their reports for many, many weeks and then acted shocked when it turned out their methodology for calculating delegates was wrong.

A minute and a half??? There are cable news channels spending HOURS on this stuff every single day with a slew of people devoted to covering the races. They *still* got it wrong!!!

Trump is changing his tactics now because he knew the nomination was in danger of slipping out of his grasp.
Trump has this sadly...



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48125er
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Re: Cruz Campaign is Done

Post by 48125er » Sat Apr 23, 2016 9:56 pm

Every news anchor has done an aborrhent job of explaining how the delegate process works to the average citizen



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TC Talks
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Re: Cruz Campaign is Done

Post by TC Talks » Sun Apr 24, 2016 8:57 pm

This has been the endlessly amusing cluster fuck I hoped it would be. I am really enjoying this season, even though my boy is heading out.

I can only hope Hillary chooses Elizabeth Warren as a running mate.


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