In one of the largest polls Morning Consult used 44,000 responses to model how voters in every state would cast their ballots in the November general election. 270 is needed to win.
Kasich 304 - Clinton 234
Trump 210 - Clinton 328
Cruz 206 - Clinton 332
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc ... mp/478008/
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Cruz would get fewest electoral votes
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Deleted User 8570
Re: Cruz would get fewest electoral votes
The electoral vote situation really favors the Democrats nowadays... They start with an automatic 242 votes that have gone Democrat in the last 6 elections...JackAttack FM wrote:In one of the largest polls Morning Consult used 44,000 responses to model how voters in every state would cast their ballots in the November general election. 270 is needed to win.
Kasich 304 - Clinton 234
Trump 210 - Clinton 328
Cruz 206 - Clinton 332
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/arc ... mp/478008/
Re: Cruz would get fewest electoral votes
That poll is somewhat nebulous. There hasn't been any head to head campaigning really. Once each side has their nominee and they start delineating individual positions, those numbers could change quite a bit.
Look to history. In March of 1980, Ronald Reagan trailed Jimmy Carter in the polls by a margin of 33% to 55%.
Once the details of HilLIEry's trillion dollar tax hike program hits the streets, I have a feeling those numbers will change.
Look to history. In March of 1980, Ronald Reagan trailed Jimmy Carter in the polls by a margin of 33% to 55%.
Once the details of HilLIEry's trillion dollar tax hike program hits the streets, I have a feeling those numbers will change.
New York and Chicago were all in with respect to their sanctuary status — until they were hit with the challenge of actually providing sanctuary. In other words, typical liberal hypocrisy.
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Deleted User 8570
Re: Cruz would get fewest electoral votes
The past six elections have yielded the Democrats 242 electoral votes... They have several combinations to get the other 28. I don't see factors that would peel that away. The Republicans similar number is 130... They automatically start in a must win all the swing states and even then they are 3 short... They have to flip states too... It's very bleak... Cruz offers nothing that would really change the dynamic. You should try not being an ideologue so much and analyse things realistically... The Republicans situation is in decline.Bryce wrote:That poll is somewhat nebulous. There hasn't been any head to head campaigning really. Once each side has their nominee and they start delineating individual positions, those numbers could change quite a bit.
Look to history. In March of 1980, Ronald Reagan trailed Jimmy Carter in the polls by a margin of 33% to 55%.
Once the details of HilLIEry's trillion dollar tax hike program hits the streets, I have a feeling those numbers will change.
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JackAttack FM
- Posts: 295
- Joined: Thu Jan 05, 2012 5:50 pm
Re: Cruz would get fewest electoral votes
What's laughable is that sites like hotair are also trying to say this poll is cloudy (or using the higher priced word "nebulous") because states like Oregon, Michigan and even Minnesota!, Yes Minnesota!, could be in play for Cruz because Hillary has a lead by only a few points.
Based on this poll only four states are slightly leaning Democratic, Colorado (9), Ohio (18), Wisconsin (10) Maine (4). Even if Cruz took Virginia (13) one of the states this poll showed as solidly Democratic, which I think could go Republican, he'd still need Florida (29), another sold Democratic state in this poll, to overcome his 64 electoral vote deficit. That's a lot of ground to cover.
Based on this poll only four states are slightly leaning Democratic, Colorado (9), Ohio (18), Wisconsin (10) Maine (4). Even if Cruz took Virginia (13) one of the states this poll showed as solidly Democratic, which I think could go Republican, he'd still need Florida (29), another sold Democratic state in this poll, to overcome his 64 electoral vote deficit. That's a lot of ground to cover.
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JackAttack FM
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- Joined: Thu Jan 05, 2012 5:50 pm
Re: Cruz would get fewest electoral votes
That's great Bryce brought Reagan into this...
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Deleted User 8570
Re: Cruz would get fewest electoral votes
Kasich is the only one of the three with a prayer...
Re: Cruz would get fewest electoral votes
I like John Kasich. While I disagree with his stand on immigration and a couple other minor things, if he were the Republican nominee, he would have my wholehearted support. Can't say the same about T Rump.
New York and Chicago were all in with respect to their sanctuary status — until they were hit with the challenge of actually providing sanctuary. In other words, typical liberal hypocrisy.
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audiophile
- Posts: 8604
- Joined: Sat Dec 04, 2004 9:21 pm
- Location: Between 88 and 108 MHz.
Re: Cruz would get fewest electoral votes
Similar here. I could vote for him with reservations, but I don't think we'll have to worry about that. I like him as VP for Cruz.
If was VP for tRump - no go.
If was VP for tRump - no go.
Ask not what your country can do FOR you; ask what they are about to do TO YOU!!
Re: Cruz would get fewest electoral votes
Why didn't you vote for him in our primary then, fellow Republican?NS8401 wrote:Kasich is the only one of the three with a prayer...
In all honesty, polls like this are meaningless. If Cruz gets the nomination, the electorate will get a better view of him and that has already started with his well-received Fallon appearance:
Voting for Trump is dumber than playing Russian Roulette with fully loaded chambers.
**This space lives rent-free in BMW's head**
**This space lives rent-free in BMW's head**
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Deleted User 8570
Re: Cruz would get fewest electoral votes
Because Trump is more fun to watch... I'm just being objective... Cruz can't get it done... Trump is DOA. Kasich continually beats Hillary by 10 points... He's the only hope and he's a... Get ready for it... Brace yourself... Moderate.Matt wrote:Why didn't you vote for him in our primary then, fellow Republican?NS8401 wrote:Kasich is the only one of the three with a prayer...
In all honesty, polls like this are meaningless. If Cruz gets the nomination, the electorate will get a better view of him and that has already started with his well-received Fallon appearance:
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audiophile
- Posts: 8604
- Joined: Sat Dec 04, 2004 9:21 pm
- Location: Between 88 and 108 MHz.
Re: Cruz would get fewest electoral votes
Kasich is polling better because outside Ohio no one knows much about him...
His first 3 years in Ohio were rough, then he turned into "Mr. Nice".
His first 3 years in Ohio were rough, then he turned into "Mr. Nice".
Ask not what your country can do FOR you; ask what they are about to do TO YOU!!
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Deleted User 8570
Re: Cruz would get fewest electoral votes
And nice works.. Nobody knows much about Cruz yet either and he only manages ties with Clinton... That'll no doubt decrease over time like it did with Romney... The Republicans remain the smaller and weaker of the two parties electorally barring a seismic shift...audiophile wrote:Kasich is polling better because outside Ohio no one knows much about him...
His first 3 years in Ohio were rough, then he turned into "Mr. Nice".
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JackAttack FM
- Posts: 295
- Joined: Thu Jan 05, 2012 5:50 pm
Re: Cruz would get fewest electoral votes
These national polls absolutely do make a difference.
Take Michigan for example. In both the March 8th Republican and Democratic primaries there were just under 2.5 million voters. In the last two presidential general elections, '08 and '12, there were about 5 million in Michigan. Just over 5 million in 2008 and nearly 4.8 million in 2012. And it could likely be the same trend in most other states.
So, basically the primaries are only giving, at most, half the results of what the November general election will bring. And the only other measure we have of who is electable in November are these polls.
And take that Fox poll from a couple weeks ago that had Cruz with a 3 point lead over Clinton. It also had Kasich with an 11 point lead and the only Republican that gets over 50%. It also showed Kasich draws more independents (36%) and cross-over Democrats (17%). And he's the most trusted candidate to make appointments to the Supreme Court.
The other thing with this election is that the Republican majority could be in danger in the Senate.
There are 34 senate seats up for this election. 24 of those are Republican and the Democrats only need about 5 seats to gain control.
Whomever gets the Republican nomination is going to need long enough coattails to carry off a Senate Republican majority. And if the nominee has a strong enough lead in the polls, that will also give them more credibility and support to campaign for or with the Republican congressional candidates.
The House is a little less precarious with a more then 50 seat majority. But, why take a chance? I DO NOT want another Democrat in The White House! The last four have been disasterous for this country.
Take Michigan for example. In both the March 8th Republican and Democratic primaries there were just under 2.5 million voters. In the last two presidential general elections, '08 and '12, there were about 5 million in Michigan. Just over 5 million in 2008 and nearly 4.8 million in 2012. And it could likely be the same trend in most other states.
So, basically the primaries are only giving, at most, half the results of what the November general election will bring. And the only other measure we have of who is electable in November are these polls.
And take that Fox poll from a couple weeks ago that had Cruz with a 3 point lead over Clinton. It also had Kasich with an 11 point lead and the only Republican that gets over 50%. It also showed Kasich draws more independents (36%) and cross-over Democrats (17%). And he's the most trusted candidate to make appointments to the Supreme Court.
The other thing with this election is that the Republican majority could be in danger in the Senate.
There are 34 senate seats up for this election. 24 of those are Republican and the Democrats only need about 5 seats to gain control.
Whomever gets the Republican nomination is going to need long enough coattails to carry off a Senate Republican majority. And if the nominee has a strong enough lead in the polls, that will also give them more credibility and support to campaign for or with the Republican congressional candidates.
The House is a little less precarious with a more then 50 seat majority. But, why take a chance? I DO NOT want another Democrat in The White House! The last four have been disasterous for this country.