Trump will win...New Hampshire?

[bmw]

I don't see anybody else beating him. Avoiding the debate last night ended up being yet another unorthodox, yet savvy political move. Most headlines are reading that Rubio and Cruz had mediocre performances at best last night.

Trump continues to hold on to a 3 to 7 point lead in Iowa, I don't see that lead dissolving. In fact I see him winning by somewhere between 5 and 8 points. He will win Iowa and then easily win New Hampshire, and once that happens, there is just nobody else in the field capable of taking him out, unless there is a hoard of candidates moving towards the exit. And that won't happen.

As a spectator, watching Trump completely own and man-handle the media and watching candidate after candidate take him on and fail at doing so has been amusing to watch.

[Deleted User 8570]

I don't see anybody else beating him. Avoiding the debate last night ended up being yet another unorthodox, yet savvy political move. Most headlines are reading that Rubio and Cruz had mediocre performances at best last night.

Trump continues to hold on to a 3 to 7 point lead in Iowa, I don't see that lead dissolving. In fact I see him winning by somewhere between 5 and 8 points. He will win Iowa and then easily win New Hampshire, and once that happens, there is just nobody else in the field capable of taking him out, unless there is a hoard of candidates moving towards the exit. And that won't happen.

As a spectator, watching Trump completely own and man-handle the media and watching candidate after candidate take him on and fail at doing so has been amusing to watch.

Everybody but Trump and Cruz are toast by Super Tuesday... Trump has a 35-40% ceiling among Republicans... Dont count your chickens yet...

[bmw]

Trump has a 35-40% ceiling among Republicans...

Where are you coming up with those numbers? A very recent ABC News poll suggests otherwise:

[Deleted User 8570]

Trump has a 35-40% ceiling among Republicans...

Where are you coming up with those numbers? A very recent ABC News poll suggests otherwise:

As long as other folks remain in the race it'll be 35-40... That poll is assuming he's the nominee... In a two way race with Cruz it's a toss up... Just because 65% of them would accept him in the general election it doesn't mean that 65% would support him in a two way primary race, far from it...

[MWmetalhead]

I agree that Trump will win New Hampshire, probably handily.

Iowa is a toss-up. Iowa generally favors evangelical conservatives. Recall that Mike Huckabee won there in 2008. Pat Robertson won there in 1988. I'd put the odds at even money between Trump and Cruz.

The real question is - aside from Trump and Cruz - who else will "make the cut" heading into South Carolina?

Everybody but Trump and Cruz are toast by Super Tuesday..

I wouldn't bet on that. That's a distinct possibility, but I would not say such an outcome is highly likely at this point. I think there will be at least three - possibly as many as four - viable contenders heading into Super Tuesday.

[bmw]

Some interesting drop-out predictions (via CNN's Political Predictions Market)

Odds candidate will suspend his/her campaign before the New Hampshire primary:

1 percent - Bush, Rubio, Cruz, Christie, Trump
2 percent - Kasich
82 percent - Fiorina
84 percent - Rand Paul
89 percent - Carson
99 percent - Huckabee and Santorum

So there is a wide gap between Kasich at 2 percent and Fiorina at 82 percent, with people predicting a better than 80 percent chance that each of Carly Fiorina, Rand Paul, Ben Carson, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum will drop out.

If all of that happens then you have a 6-man race with about 15 percent of the vote up for grabs.

Bottom line is, a 6-man race is still too many in the field for anybody to coalesce around a non-Trump candidate, and the 15 percent of the vote up for grabs from the dropouts isn't really that significant.

Kasich is doing better than I thought he would in New Hampshire, he could realistically take 2nd place, and I think he drops out if he does any worse than 2nd. He may stick around for a bit if he manages 2nd place, and that will ultimately help Trump.

And re: Trump in Iowa - he is more than a coin flip to win, though it is admittedly not QUITE a lock yet. He leads each of the last 7 major polls taken, and by a fairly large margin at about 7 points. Momentum is moving his way, and Cruz did himself no favors last night. If I were gambling on this, I would favor Trump in Iowa over Cruz by about a 5:1 margin.

[Turkeytop]

I'm guessing Trump won't do as well as his polling numbers suggest. The people who claim to be his supporters aren't likely the kind of people who will actually get out and vote.

[audiophile]

I'm guessing Trump won't do as well as his polling numbers suggest. The people who claim to be his supporters aren't likely the kind of people who will actually get out and vote.

They'll think he has it in the bag and will not show up?

Too busy yelling at the old lady to get another beer?

Too hard to use walker to get to the polls?

Do tell....

[Deleted User 8570]

I'm guessing Trump won't do as well as his polling numbers suggest. The people who claim to be his supporters aren't likely the kind of people who will actually get out and vote.

They'll think he has it in the bag and will not show up?

Too busy yelling at the old lady to get another beer?

Too hard to use walker to get to the polls?

Do tell....

Most of his support is blue collar white workers (mostly men) with a very spotty track record of showing up... Basically he make big smoke with no fire...

[MWmetalhead]

Here's an interesting twist - a snowstorm, including near or outright blizzard conditions, is forecast to hit parts of Iowa beginning late Monday night. Remember, in caucus states, you cannot just show up and vote throughout the day. You must be physically present at a caucus venue at a scheduled time, which I believe is 7:00p CT onward.

The timing of this storm will be critical in terms of determining voter turnout. Looks like the southwestern portion of the state will get hit first. Des Moines probably won't get hit badly until after midnight (but there is still some uncertainty). Eastern portions of Iowa - say from Cedar Rapids and Iowa City eastward - should be OK on election night.

http://www.weather.gov/crh/weatherstory ... qyvVrIrKUk
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-n ... t/55036213

Tuesday looks to be much worse than Monday night, so it's a good thing voting isn't occurring on Tuesday.

Council Bluffs is the only significant population center where the weather will likely be awful shortly after caucuses begin.

[Bryce]

Personal opinion is that bad weather benefits Cruz, maybe even Santorum.

[audiophile]

Maybe the snow storm is the trump card for them?

I think Trump supporters will be a bit mushy.

[TheForce]

Would be nice if all the states had the same voting process for uniformity. And I think Trumps move of not attending the Iowa debate was a ballsy move and it seems to be in his favor. But we won't know until after the caucuses.

[audiophile]

It might have been better if he skipped it for a more legit organization:
http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/18/politics/ ... ans-group/

Of course his knocking of McCain being a POW was a bit over the top and I heard he was hard on homeless vets hanging outside his hotels. Classic flip-flopper...

I don't think the average Iowan was impressed he chickened out on the Iowa debate just because of Megyn Kelly.

In other states is was probably a plus, but not in Iowa.

[Deleted User 8570]

It might have been better if he skipped it for a more legit organization:
http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/18/politics/ ... ans-group/

Of course his knocking of McCain being a POW was a bit over the top and I heard he was hard on homeless vets hanging outside his hotels. Classic flip-flopper...

I don't think the average Iowan was impressed he chickened out on the Iowa debate just because of Megyn Kelly.

In other states is was probably a plus, but not in Iowa.

I think Trump has Iowa... Cruz stumbled twice in recent days, one of which at an event where he failed to have sympathy or compassion for a guy whose brother was saved from cancer thanks to coverage he got from Obamacare looked incredibly bad...