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2016 Presidential Polls

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Deleted User 8570

Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Wed Dec 16, 2015 10:03 pm

Monmouth

Overall Democratic Nomination:
Clinton 59
Sanders 26
http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/322122 ... 29418b.pdf



Deleted User 8570

Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Thu Dec 17, 2015 6:09 pm

PPP

Iowa Genral Election:
Clinton 45 Trump 43
Cruz 47 Clinton 44
Rubio 48 Clinton 41
Carson 45 Clinton 45
Clinton 46 Bush 41
Sanders 46 Trump 43
Sanders 44 Cruz 43
Rubio 44 Sanders 42
Sanders 43 Carson 42
Sanders 44 Bush 40
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/ ... 121715.pdf



User avatar
Bryce
Posts: 2815
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2008 12:04 pm

Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by Bryce » Thu Dec 17, 2015 9:38 pm

Interesting that the two most conservative candidates beat HilLIEry in Iowa.


Cain killed Abel with a rock. God blamed Cain, NOT the rock.

bmw
Posts: 1312
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by bmw » Fri Dec 18, 2015 12:03 am

Does anybody here think Trump could actually beat Hillary in the general election?



Deleted User 8570

Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Fri Dec 18, 2015 5:33 am

bmw wrote:Does anybody here think Trump could actually beat Hillary in the general election?
No..



Deleted User 8570

Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Fri Dec 18, 2015 5:34 am

Bryce wrote:Interesting that the two most conservative candidates beat HilLIEry in Iowa.
So you're saying Cruz and Rubio are most conservative?



Deleted User 8570

Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Sat Dec 19, 2015 12:42 pm

FOX News

Overall Republican Nomination:
Trump 39
Cruz 18
Rubio 11
Carson 9

Overall Democratic Nomination:
Clinton 56
Sanders 34

General Election:
Clinton 49 Trump 38
Clinton 45 Cruz 45
Rubio 45 Clinton 43
Clinton 46 Carson 44
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interac ... rism-isis/

PPP

Overall Republican Nomination:
Trump 34
Cruz 18
Rubio 13
Bush 7
Carson 6
Christie 5
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/ ... esults.pdf

ABC News / Washington Post

Overall Democratic Nomination:
Clinton 59
Sanders 28
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton- ... d=35826529

Boston Herald

New Hampshire Republican Primary:
Trump 26
Rubio 12
Cruz 12
Christie 11
Bush 10
Kasich 8
Fiorina 6
Carson 5

New Hampshire Democratic Primary:
Sanders 48
Clinton 46
http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_pol ... pulls_even

Florida Times Union

Florida Republican Primary:
Trump 30
Cruz 20
Rubio 15
Bush 13
Carson 8
Christie 6
http://jacksonville.com/news/2015-12-17 ... hine-state

FOX 5 Atlanta

Georgia Republican Primary:
Trump 35
Cruz 16
Rubio 12
Carson 6
Bush 6
Christie 6
http://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/58248093-story
Fiorina 5



Deleted User 8570

Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Sat Dec 19, 2015 7:17 pm

Augusta Chronicle

South Carolina Republican Primary:
Trump 28
Cruz 21
Rubio 12
Carson 10
Bush 10
Christie 6
Fiorina 5
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uplo ... .17.15.pdf



Deleted User 8570

Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Sun Dec 20, 2015 5:20 pm

CBS News / YouGov:

Iowa Republican Caucus:
Cruz 40
Trump 31
Rubio 12
Carson 6

Iowa Democratic Caucus:
Clinton 50 Sanders 45
https://www.scribd.com/doc/293729658/CB ... acker-Iowa

New Hampshire Republican Primary:
Trump 32
Cruz 14
Rubio 13
Christie 11
Kasich 8
Bush 6
Carson 5
Paul 5

New Hampshire Democratic Primary:
Sanders 56 Clinton 42
https://www.scribd.com/doc/293729829/CB ... -Hampshire

South Carolina Republican Primary:
Trump 38
Cruz 23
Rubio 12
Carson 9
Bush 7

South Carolina Democratic Primary:
Clinton 67 Sanders 31
https://www.scribd.com/doc/293729705/CB ... h-Carolina



Deleted User 8570

Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Mon Dec 21, 2015 2:08 pm

PPP

General Election Matchups:
Clinton 46 Trump 43
Clinton 45 Cruz 43
Rubio 44 Clinton 43
Clinton 45 Carson 45
Clinton 44 Bush 39

Trump 43 Sanders 41
Cruz 42 Sanders 41
Rubio 42 Sanders 39
Sanders 41 Carson 41
Bush 42 Sanders 41
https://www.scribd.com/doc/293784795/Pu ... ional-poll



Deleted User 8570

Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Tue Dec 22, 2015 12:42 pm

Quinnipiac

Overall Republican Nomination:
Trump 28
Cruz 24
Rubio 12
Carson 10
Christie 6

Overall Democratic Nomination:
Clinton 61
Sanders 30

General Election Matchups:
Clinton 47 Trump 40
Clinton 44 Cruz 44
Clinton 44 Rubio 43

Sanders 51 Trump 38
Cruz 44 Sanders 43
Rubio 45 Sanders 42
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/pollin ... hkm63g.pdf



bmw
Posts: 1312
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by bmw » Tue Dec 22, 2015 2:22 pm

bmw wrote:
So my next prediction for another 3 weeks out:

Trump 34
Cruz 20
Rubio 18
Carson 9
All others < 9
Looks like I nailed it again. Average of 3 most recent polls:

Trump 34
Cruz 20
Rubio 12
Carson 8

I don't think much changes between now and mid-January. Christie is starting to improve, I could see him at 8 or 9 points. I'll go with this:

Trump 35
Cruz 22
Rubio 13
Christie 8
Carson 6



Deleted User 8570

Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Tue Dec 22, 2015 2:26 pm

bmw wrote:
bmw wrote:
So my next prediction for another 3 weeks out:

Trump 34
Cruz 20
Rubio 18
Carson 9
All others < 9
Looks like I nailed it again. Average of 3 most recent polls:

Trump 34
Cruz 20
Rubio 12
Carson 8

I don't think much changes between now and mid-January. Christie is starting to improve, I could see him at 8 or 9 points. I'll go with this:

Trump 35
Cruz 22
Rubio 13
Christie 8
Carson 6
So you don't see Trump imploding with Cruz overtaking? Iowa has a pretty middling track record of picking the nominee correctly so I wouldn't be surprised if he becomes a one hit wonder...



bmw
Posts: 1312
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by bmw » Tue Dec 22, 2015 3:54 pm

Until some candidates polling at 3+ start dropping out, I just don't see much change nationally. About all that has really happened over the past month is that Carson has fallen considerably with most of his supporters going to Cruz with a few to Trump. Bush continues to fall with his support I think being split between Christie and Rubio. I expected Rubio to be performing better with Bush's slide but Rubio has only seen his support modestly increase.

Trump has proven that he can survive saying just about anything that would ordinarily sink another candidate, so I expect him to keep saying controversial things and for his numbers to remain mostly steady.

In Iowa, even though Cruz is surging, Trump's numbers are actually going up as well. As long as Trump has a strong 2nd place finish in Iowa then I don't think Iowa means anything b/c Trump will likely take New Hampshire and South Carolina and possibly even Nevada.

A few bottom-tier candidates should drop out before Super Tuesday - I'm predicting at least Kasich, Bush, Fiorina, and Huckabee, also possibly Carson.

After that it will be a battle between Trump and Cruz for the outsider support and between Rubio and Christie for the establishment support. Right now these are the only 4 candidates I give any chance of getting the nomination.

If Trump does implode between now and then (still possible but not likely), his support will fall down to his core support of about 20 percent and the rest will be split between Cruz and Christie. I think we're in for a long primary season because I don't see any of these 4 candidates dropping out anytime soon.



Deleted User 8570

Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Tue Dec 22, 2015 6:29 pm

Rasmussen Reports

Overall Democratic Nomination:
Clinton 46
Sanders 30
O'Malley 7
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... imary_race



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