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2016 Presidential Polls

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Deleted User 8570

2016 Presidential Polls

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Tue Aug 11, 2015 2:04 pm

I could keep putting polls in the Trump Roastfest thread but I figured it might be fun to watch them separately:

First is one from Suffolk University polling the Iowa Caucuses on the GOP side...

This IS a post debate poll and the first not to be conducted online that I have come across.

Trump 17
Walker 12
Rubio 10
Carson 9
Cruz/Fiorina 7
Bush 5

Everybody else is 3 or lower. Also interesting to note that the respondents were majority women 52-48.

http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/ ... ginals.pdf

For balance here is a PPP poll of the Democratic race in the Iowa Caucuses that came out yesterday:
Clinton 52
Sanders 25

The rest are irrelevant at this point.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/ ... _81015.pdf



TC Shuts Up
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Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by TC Shuts Up » Tue Aug 11, 2015 2:26 pm

Can anyone explain to me why a Third Bush and a Second Clinton are being forced on us at all? They remind me of those old Frankfurters roasting on a theater concession rotisserie on an old Seinfeld episode. Is America really that desperate for candidates? Then they trot out Biden and Sanders when an indictment starts to look more likely. More old Frankfurters.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ISikGtEMesE


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Deleted User 8570

Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Tue Aug 11, 2015 2:54 pm

TC Shuts Up wrote:Can anyone explain to me why a Third Bush and a Second Clinton are being forced on us at all? They remind me of those old Frankfurters roasting on a theater concession rotisserie on an old Seinfeld episode. Is America really that desperate for candidates? Then they trot out Biden and Sanders when an indictment starts to look more likely. More old Frankfurters.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ISikGtEMesE
:lol :lol

The U.S.A has the tendency to become dynastic every so often.

Here's another poll, this time for New Hampshire's primary on the GOP side from the Boston Herald / Franklin Pierce University also after the debate (they should all be by now):

Trump 18
Bush 13
Kasich 12
Cruz 10
Fiorina 9
Paul 6

Everybody else is below 5. I get the feeling trump has reached a ceiling on support but that support is very solid and in a 17 candidate field it would be enough to make a lot of noise when ballots begin to be cast.

http://www.bostonherald.com/sites/defau ... 11-Rep.pdf

There is also a nice rough list of the order from most to least likely about who is most likely to be nominated:
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2015/P ... Aug11.html

Side note:
Rick Perry may be the first casualty of the 2016 race. He has stopped paying headquarters and South Carolina staff due to a lack of funding.



Deleted User 8570

Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Tue Aug 11, 2015 3:49 pm

The 3rd poll today is from Rasmussen and is a poll of the GOP race overall:

Trump 17 (down from 26 July 26-28)
Bush 10
Rubio 10
Walker 9
Fiorina 9
Carson 8
Cruz 7

Everybody else at 4 or lower.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... ald_peaked



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MWmetalhead
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Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by MWmetalhead » Tue Aug 11, 2015 4:39 pm

Interesting variances, especially in early primary states!

Perry is toast. Saw the same report during lunch. He never stood a chance.

Graham and Jindal should be next. Strong argument can be made to throw Christie into that same group. Pataki, Santorum and Gilmore? Who cares. :)

Huckabee also appears to be in major trouble, and unlike Paul, is not very effective at fundraising.

Paul is polling terribly, but he's an effective fundraiser, and if he's anything like his father, he'll probably stay in the race as long as possible.


Fire Blashill!!!!

Deleted User 8570

Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Tue Aug 11, 2015 5:04 pm

MWmetalhead wrote:Interesting variances, especially in early primary states!

Perry is toast. Saw the same report during lunch. He never stood a chance.

Graham and Jindal should be next. Strong argument can be made to throw Christie into that same group. Pataki, Santorum and Gilmore? Who cares. :)

Huckabee also appears to be in major trouble, and unlike Paul, is not very effective at fundraising.

Paul is polling terribly, but he's an effective fundraiser, and if he's anything like his father, he'll probably stay in the race as long as possible.
If we could toss these 7 or 8 folks under the bus (though I want to see Huckabee stay in just because I like the guy) it would make the field much more reasonable and be interesting to see how the support of those candidates (anywhere from 12-22% it appears) would be divided. I suspect much of it would not go to Trump who appears to have taken a hit from his comments even if he remains in the lead by 5-7%.



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TC Talks
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Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by TC Talks » Tue Aug 11, 2015 9:39 pm

Huckabee is a bigot. He's only in the race to sell his next book and influence the discussion.


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Deleted User 8570

Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Tue Aug 11, 2015 10:37 pm

TC Talks wrote:Huckabee is a bigot. He's only in the race to sell his next book and influence the discussion.
Maybe so but there's still something likable anyways... A huggable Hitler if you will...



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Motown322
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Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by Motown322 » Wed Aug 12, 2015 12:19 am

NS8401 wrote: Maybe so but there's still something likable anyways... A huggable Hitler if you will...
C'mon, admit it... you're just in it for the bass guitar solos. :razz
Image



Deleted User 8570

Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Wed Aug 12, 2015 1:11 am

Motown322 wrote:
NS8401 wrote: Maybe so but there's still something likable anyways... A huggable Hitler if you will...
C'mon, admit it... you're just in it for the bass guitar solos. :razz
Image
I've been exposed... :hat



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TheForce
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Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by TheForce » Wed Aug 12, 2015 7:57 am

On Gretta on Fox News last night while channel surfing they were doing a Twitter poll of "When Trump speaks are you MORE or LESS likely to vote for him"? I checked periodically and the polling remained steady 82% MORE Likely and 18% LESS Likely.



bmw
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Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by bmw » Wed Aug 12, 2015 8:14 am

Things just got interesting on the democratic side:

New Hampshire (Boston Herald/FPU poll)

44 Bernie Sanders
37 Hillary Clinton
9 Joe Biden

The Clinton email scandal is taking its toll, IMO.



Deleted User 8570

Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Wed Aug 12, 2015 9:36 am

PPP from Monday (8/10) with some hypothetical general election matchups against Clinton in Iowa:
Clinton 44 Bush 40
Walker 44 Clinton 43
Clinton 43 Trump 40
Rubio 43 Clinton 42
Clinton 42 Fiorina 40
Clinton 41 Kasich 39
Huckabee 44 Clinton 43
Clinton 43 Paul 40
Carson 44 Clinton 40
Clinton 44 Cruz 42
Clinton 44 Christie 39



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audiophile
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Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by audiophile » Wed Aug 12, 2015 4:38 pm

That is probably much more real poll...


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Deleted User 8570

Re: 2016 Presidential Polls

Post by Deleted User 8570 » Wed Aug 12, 2015 5:00 pm

audiophile wrote:That is probably much more real poll...
Based on what?

All of the polls I have posted in this thread were traditional surveys...



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