2024 Presidential Primary Polling Thread

[Matt]

2024 Matchups: Biden Opens Up Lead Over Trump In Head-To-Head, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Haley Leads Biden 1 On 1, But Trails When Third Party Candidates Are Added


https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3889

By Trump's logic, he should drop out.

[Rate This]

January 24

The Messenger / HarrisX
GOP Nomination:
Trump 74
Haley 11
DeSantis 9

Democratic Nomination:
Biden 66
Williamson 6
Phillips 5

General Election:
Trump 53
Biden 47

Trump 45
Biden 36
Kennedy 14
Stein 3
West 2

Economist / YouGov
General Election:
Trump 44
Biden 43

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 43
Republicans 42

January 25

NewsNation
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 44
Democrats 43

January 26

Morning Consult
GOP Nomination:
Trump 81
Haley 18

Reuters / Ipsos
GOP Nomination:
Trump 64
Haley 19

General Election:
Trump 43
Biden 38

Trump 39
Biden 34
Kennedy 8
Phillips 2

January 29

Morning Consult
GOP Nomination:
Trump 81
Haley 18

General Election:
Trump 44
Biden 42

University of Colorado / YouGov
Colorado General Election:
Biden 47
Trump 40

January 30

Emerson
GOP Nomination:
Trump 73
Haley 19

Democratic Nomination:
Biden 72

General Election:
Trump 46
Biden 45

Trump 41
Biden 39
Kennedy 5
West 1
Stein 1

Haley 38
Biden 37

University of Houston
Texas GOP Primary:
Trump 80
Haley 19

Texas Democratic Primary:
Biden 72
Williamson 5

Texas General Election:
Trump 49
Biden 40

Haley 43
Biden 39

January 31

Bloomburg / Morning Consult
Michigan General Election:
Trump 47
Biden 42

Arizona General Election:
Trump 47
Biden 44

Trump 43
Biden 35
Kennedy 10
West 1
Stein 1

Georgia General Election:
Trump 49
Biden 41

Trump 44
Biden 37
Kennedy 8
West 1
Stein 1

Nevada General Election:
Trump 48
Biden 40

Trump 43
Biden 31
Kennedy 12
Stein 2
West 1

North Carolina General Election:
Trump 49
Biden 39

Trump 45
Biden 32
Kennedy 9
West 1
Stein 1

Pennsylvania General Election:
Trump 48
Biden 45

Trump 43
Biden 40
Kennedy 7
Stein 1
West 1

Wisconsin General Election:
Trump 49
Biden 44

Trump 43
Biden 35
Kennedy 2
Stein 1
West 0

Quinnipiac
GOP Nomination:
Trump 77
Haley 21

Democratic Nomination:
Biden 39
Trump 37
Kennedy 14
West 3
Stein 2

General Election:
Biden 50
Trump 44

Biden 39
Trump 37

Haley 47
Biden 42

Economist / YouGov
GOP Nomination:
Trump 73
Haley 17

General Election:
Biden 43
Trump 42

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 42
Republicans 42

[Rate This]

February 1

Washington Post / Monmouth
South Carolina GOP Primary:
Trump 58
Haley 32

Rasmussen Reports
GOP Nomination:
Trump 56
Haley 23

Daily Kos / Civiqs
General Election:
Trump 44
Biden 44

USC / Dornslife
California GOP Primary:
Trump 66
Haley 24

California Democratic Primary:
Biden 78
Williamson 6
Phillips 6

California General Election:
BIden 53
Trump 25
Kennedy 7
West 3
Stein 1
Mapstead 0

Emerson
Ohio General Election:
Trump 47
Biden 36

KSTP Minneapolis / SurveyUSA
Minnesota GOP Primary:
Trump 76
Haley 14

Minnesota General Election:
Biden 70
Phillips 9

Minnesota General Election:
Biden 42
Trump 39

Franklin & Marshall
Pennsylvania General Election:
Biden 43
Trump 42

Biden 42
Trump 37
Kennedy 8
Stein 2

February 2

CNN
GOP Nomination:
Trump 49
Biden 45

General Election:
Trump 49
Biden 45

Haley 52
Biden 39

Yahoo News
GOP Nomination:
Trump 79
Haley 14

Democratic Nomination:
Biden 74

General Election:
Trump 45
Biden 44

Biden 40
Haley 35

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 44
Republicans 43

FOX News
Georgia General Election:
Trump 51
Biden 43

Trump 45
Biden 37
Kennedy 8
West 3
Stein 1

Biden 35
Haley 29
Kennedy 18
West 3
Stein 1

Wisconsin General Election:
Trump 47
Biden 47

Trump 42
Biden 39
Kennedy 7
Stein 2
West 1

Biden 37
Haley 28
Kennedy 16
West 2
Stein 2

Emerson
Colorado General Election:
Biden 41
Trump 35

Missouri General Election:
Trump 49
Biden 32

South Dakota General Election:
Trump 55
Biden 26

[bmw]

So just a summary of where we're at.

Trump +9.5 Ohio
Trump +9.5 North Carolina
Trump +8.0 Iowa
Trump +7.2 Georgia
Trump +7.0 Nevada
Trump +5.1 Michigan
Trump +4.5 Arizona
Trump +0.2 Wisconsin
-------------------------------
Biden +0.3 Pennsylvania
Biden +2.6 Minnesota
Biden +6.5 Colorado

Current electoral score - Trump 293, Biden 245

[Honeyman]

So just a summary of where we're at.

Trump +9.5 Ohio
Trump +9.5 North Carolina
Trump +8.0 Iowa
Trump +7.2 Georgia
Trump +7.0 Nevada
Trump +5.1 Michigan
Trump +4.5 Arizona
Trump +0.2 Wisconsin
-------------------------------
Biden +0.3 Pennsylvania
Biden +2.6 Minnesota
Biden +6.5 Colorado

Current electoral score - Trump 293, Biden 245

What are the odds on that betting site you are on, beemer?

[Rate This]

So just a summary of where we're at.

Trump +9.5 Ohio
Trump +9.5 North Carolina
Trump +8.0 Iowa
Trump +7.2 Georgia
Trump +7.0 Nevada
Trump +5.1 Michigan
Trump +4.5 Arizona
Trump +0.2 Wisconsin
-------------------------------
Biden +0.3 Pennsylvania
Biden +2.6 Minnesota
Biden +6.5 Colorado

Current electoral score - Trump 293, Biden 245

With improving consumer sentiment and a red hot economy and low (1.7% at last reading) inflation this may change dramatically. The lag time between great numbers and public reaction is 6-9 months. That might change the landscape dramatically come September or October. We also have major wild cards hanging out there… Trump Trials and the Supreme Court ruling about whether Mifepristone and company will remain legal. They rule against birth control and it’s over for the Republicans. You can instantly stick a fork in it. Also Biden is just now starting to campaign and Trump has been going for a while now… so it’s way too early to draw broad conclusions here but this is a decent summary of where we are at. The question is how some polls are arriving at enormous Trump leads and others are finding enormous Biden leads.

[bmw]

So just a summary of where we're at.

Trump +9.5 Ohio
Trump +9.5 North Carolina
Trump +8.0 Iowa
Trump +7.2 Georgia
Trump +7.0 Nevada
Trump +5.1 Michigan
Trump +4.5 Arizona
Trump +0.2 Wisconsin
-------------------------------
Biden +0.3 Pennsylvania
Biden +2.6 Minnesota
Biden +6.5 Colorado

Current electoral score - Trump 293, Biden 245

What are the odds on that betting site you are on, beemer?

They're sill involved in litigation so they aren't offering many markets at the time, but of the ones that are open:

88% Trump to be the Republican nominee
85% Biden to be the Democrat nominee
57% Georgia goes Republican
58% Wisconsin goes Democrat
53% President is a Democrat, 47% Republican

[bmw]

With improving consumer sentiment and a red hot economy and low (1.7% at last reading) inflation this may change dramatically. The lag time between great numbers and public reaction is 6-9 months. That might change the landscape dramatically come September or October. We also have major wild cards hanging out there… Trump Trials and the Supreme Court ruling about whether Mifepristone and company will remain legal. They rule against birth control and it’s over for the Republicans. You can instantly stick a fork in it. Also Biden is just now starting to campaign and Trump has been going for a while now… so it’s way too early to draw broad conclusions here but this is a decent summary of where we are at. The question is how some polls are arriving at enormous Trump leads and others are finding enormous Biden leads.

The thing is though, these numbers are way different than they were at this point in time in 2020 where Biden led in the polls in a lot of those states.

Trump trials are certainly a wild card but I don't think are going to matter. Economy doing ok at the moment but I'm not convinced that will magically result in people going back to Biden.

We'll see. One of the more interesting electoral results would be if Michigan and Wisconsin went to Biden with Georgia and Arizona going to Trump and all other numbers standing. That would be a 270-268 win for Biden and probably a civil war.

[Rate This]

With improving consumer sentiment and a red hot economy and low (1.7% at last reading) inflation this may change dramatically. The lag time between great numbers and public reaction is 6-9 months. That might change the landscape dramatically come September or October. We also have major wild cards hanging out there… Trump Trials and the Supreme Court ruling about whether Mifepristone and company will remain legal. They rule against birth control and it’s over for the Republicans. You can instantly stick a fork in it. Also Biden is just now starting to campaign and Trump has been going for a while now… so it’s way too early to draw broad conclusions here but this is a decent summary of where we are at. The question is how some polls are arriving at enormous Trump leads and others are finding enormous Biden leads.

The thing is though, these numbers are way different than they were at this point in time in 2020 where Biden led in the polls in a lot of those states.

Trump trials are certainly a wild card but I don't think are going to matter. Economy doing ok at the moment but I'm not convinced that will magically result in people going back to Biden.

We'll see. One of the more interesting electoral results would be if Michigan and Wisconsin went to Biden with Georgia and Arizona going to Trump and all other numbers standing. That would be a 270-268 win for Biden and probably a civil war.

I really think Trump campaigning as nauseum and sucking up all the oxygen is having a major effect on things. That will likely balance out later. The Biden campaign believes that there is a block of voters out there who don’t think Trump will be the nominee and once he locks it up there will be some sort of oh shit moment and they will gain some support.

We won’t have a hot civil war… none of these people have shown they have the balls to go there including Trump who ALWAYS backs down from a fight. He’s a paper tiger basically. So he doesn’t have true push people around and lead a group in a fight abilities no matter how much he protests and talks big and pretends to be tough.

I also would not discount any of the abortion stuff which is gonna be one of the central pillars of the Democrats platform and not without reason obviously. Trump is going base only and his base really isn’t big enough and independents are pretty sour on him. So I think these polls are overly optimistic for Trump.

[Honeyman]

What Rate says might be true. Trump, probably more than any other politician, has a hard ceiling. He's nuts, only cares about himself, and hates America. Most US citizens realize this. Whether they are in the key states is the issue.

[Matt]

What Rate says might be true. Trump, probably more than any other politician, has a hard ceiling. He's nuts, only cares about himself, and hates America. Most US citizens realize this. Whether they are in the key states is the issue.

You really have to be a dumb motherfucker to vote for Trump after all his actions after he lost.

[Honeyman]

What Rate says might be true. Trump, probably more than any other politician, has a hard ceiling. He's nuts, only cares about himself, and hates America. Most US citizens realize this. Whether they are in the key states is the issue.

You really have to be a dumb motherfucker to vote for Trump after all his actions after he lost.

That's the issue. We live in a very dumb country.

[Matt]

What Rate says might be true. Trump, probably more than any other politician, has a hard ceiling. He's nuts, only cares about himself, and hates America. Most US citizens realize this. Whether they are in the key states is the issue.

You really have to be a dumb motherfucker to vote for Trump after all his actions after he lost.

That's the issue. We live in a very dumb country.

His ceiling is less than what he got in 2020. You start knowing he won't win the popular vote (he's never been remotely close), so the question is, can he squeak by in swing states? It doesn't seem likely. I'm shocked at howany Republicans are signing off on a kamikaze.

[bmw]

His ceiling is less than what he got in 2020.

Polls suggest otherwise. His highest RCP polling average in 2020 was 45.6. Just last week his average hit an all-time high of 47.5 and he's been pretty consistently above 46 for the past 3 months now.

[Matt]

His ceiling is less than what he got in 2020.

Polls suggest otherwise. His highest RCP polling average in 2020 was 45.6. Just last week his average hit an all-time high of 47.5 and he's been pretty consistently above 46 for the past 3 months now.

Polls didn't mean anything when he was way behind in 2020, remember? Maybe there was a course correction that went too far. I don't see him gaining anyone who didn't vote for him before.