2024 Presidential Primary Polling Thread

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October 17

Morning Consult
GOP Nomination:
Trump 59
DeSantis 14
Haley 7
Ramaswamy 7
Pence 6

General Election:
Biden 43
Trump 41

Biden 42
DeSantis 39

NPR/PBS/Marist
General Election:
Biden 49
Trump 46

Biden 44
Trump 37
Kennedy 16

Emerson
Montana General Election:
Trump 49
Biden 28

Tennessee General Election:
Trump 55
Biden 22

Wyoming General Election:
Trump 68
Biden 15

[Matt]

Kennedy is really pealing off the anti-vaxxers from Trump, despite what Oxreallyshort is hearing from his neighbors in his downriver trailer park.

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October 18

CNBC
General Election:
Trump 46
Biden 42

Economist / YouGov
General Election:
Biden 43
Trump 42

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 43
Republicans 41

October 19

Bloomberg / Morning Consult
Michigan General Election:
Trump 44
Biden 44

Arizona General Election:
Trump 47
Biden 43

Georgia General Election:
Trump 48
Biden 43

Nevada General Election:
Biden 46
Trump 43

North Carolina General Election:
Trump 47
Biden 43

Pennsylvania General Election:
Trump 46
Biden 45

Wisconsin General Election:
Trump 46
Biden 44

Yahoo News
GOP Nomination:
Trump 56
DeSantis 16
Haley 9

General Election:
Biden 44
Trump 43

Biden 40
Trump 39
Kennedy 9

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 43
Democrats 43

Grinnell / Selzer
General Election:
Trump 40
Biden 40

October 20

Emerson
GOP Nomination:
Trump 59
DeSantis 8
Haley 8

General Election:
Trump 47
Biden 45

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 45
Republicans 44

Harvard-Harris
GOP Nomination:
Trump 60
DeSantis 11
Haley 7
Ramaswamy 6

General Election:
Trump 52
Biden 48

Trump 42
Biden 36
Kennedy 22

Trump 41
Biden 34
Kennedy 21
West 3

Biden 44
DeSantis 40

Biden 42
Haley 38

Trump 48
Harris 41

Harris 42
DeSantis 42

Harris 41
Haley 39

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October 23

USA Today / Suffolk
GOP Nomination:
Trump 58
DeSantis 12
Haley 11

Democratic Nomination:
Biden 73
Williamson 11

General Election:
Trump 41
Biden 41

Trump 37
Biden 37
Kennedy 13
West 4

Biden 38
Trump 37
Kennedy 14

Trump 41
Biden 39
West 7

October 24

Morning Consult
GOP Nomination:
Trump 62
DeSantis 13
Haley 7
Ramaswamy 6
Pence 5

General Election:
Trump 43
Biden 43

Biden 43
DeSantis 38

The Messenger / HarrisX
GOP Nomination:
Trump 61
DeSantis 11
Haley 6
Ramaswamy 5

Democratic Nomination:
Biden 70
Williamson 9

General Election:
Trump 45
Biden 41

Trump 40
Biden 38
Kennedy 18
West 3

Siena
New York General Election:
Biden 46
Trump 37

Biden 38
Trump 31
Kennedy 13
West 5

October 25

University of Texas
Texas GOP Nomination:
Trump 62
DeSantis 13
Haley 7

Texas General Election:
Trump 45
Biden 37

DeSantis 39
Biden 38

Biden 34
Haley 32

Biden 36
Ramaswamy 33

Biden 36
Pence 29

Biden 34
Scott 33

Missouri Scout
Missouri General Election:
Trump 52
Biden 39

Trump 49
Biden 34
Kennedy 9

UMass Amhearst
Massachusetts GOP Nomination:
Trump 54
DeSantis 15
Haley 12
Scott 6

Massachusetts General Election:
Biden 43
Trump 21
Kennedy 17

Economist / YouGov
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 42
Republicans 41

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October 30

NBC News / Des Moines Register
Iowa GOP Caucus:
Trump 43
DeSantis 16
Haley 16
Scott 7

October 31

CNN
South Carolina GOP Primary:
Trump 53
Haley 22
DeSantis 11
Scott 6

Morning Consult
GOP Nomination:
Trump 61
DeSantis 13
Haley 7
Ramaswamy 7
Pence 5

General Election:
Trump 43
Biden 43

Biden 43
DeSantis 39

NewsNation
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 45
Democrats 43

November 1

Quinnipiac
GOP Nomination:
Trump 64
DeSantis 15
Haley 8

Democratic Nomination:
Biden 77
Williamson 8
Rep. Dean Phillips 6

General Election:
Biden 47
Trump 46

Biden 39
Trump 36
Kennedy 22

Biden 36
Trump 35
Kennedy 19
West 6

Economist / YouGov
GOP Nomination:
Trump 56
DeSantis 17
Haley 8
Ramaswamy 5

General Election:
Trump 42
Biden 42

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 42
Republicans 41

November 2

The Messenger / HarrisX
GOP Nomination:
Trump 62
DeSantis 12
Haley 7
Ramaswamy 6

Democratic Nomination:
Biden 73
Williamson 5

General election:
Trump 51
Biden 49

Trump 44
Biden 38
Kennedy 14
West 4

Susquehanna
General Election:
Biden 47
Trump 40
Kennedy 6

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 47
Republicans 44

University of Houston
Texas GOP Nomination:
Trump 58
DeSantis 14
Haley 6

November 5

New York Times / Siena
Michigan:
Trump 48
Biden 43

Harris 48
Trump 46

General Election:
Trump 51
Biden 48

Georgia:
Trump 49
Biden 43

Trump 47
Harris 44

Pennsylvania:
Trump 48
Biden 44

Trump 48
Harris 44

Wisconsin:
Biden 47
Trump 45

Trump 48
Harris 46

Nevada:
Trump 52
Biden 41

Trump 50
Harris 42

Arizona:
Trump 49
Biden 44

Trump 48
Harris 43

[Mega Hertz]

The fuck? Harris is beating Trump in Michigan? They must not have polled the buzz board.

[Matt]

The fuck? Harris is beating Trump in Michigan? They must not have polled the buzz board.

I had the same thought. That doesn't pass the smell test.

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The fuck? Harris is beating Trump in Michigan? They must not have polled the buzz board.

I had the same thought. That doesn't pass the smell test.

The entire poll doesn’t make a whole lotta sense. I don’t discriminate in these though so up it goes.

[Matt]

The fuck? Harris is beating Trump in Michigan? They must not have polled the buzz board.

I had the same thought. That doesn't pass the smell test.

The entire poll doesn’t make a whole lotta sense. I don’t discriminate in these though so up it goes.

I'm old enough to remember Trump supporters claiming all polls are bullshit - it's interesting that they're singing a different tune this cycle.

[Mega Hertz]

The fuck? Harris is beating Trump in Michigan? They must not have polled the buzz board.

I had the same thought. That doesn't pass the smell test.

The entire poll doesn’t make a whole lotta sense. I don’t discriminate in these though so up it goes.

I'm old enough to remember Trump supporters claiming all polls are bullshit - it's interesting that they're singing a different tune this cycle.

I'm pretty much on the "Trump is gonna win next year" bus. I just have this feeling. Leave it to Americans.

[Rate This]

The fuck? Harris is beating Trump in Michigan? They must not have polled the buzz board.

I had the same thought. That doesn't pass the smell test.

The entire poll doesn’t make a whole lotta sense. I don’t discriminate in these though so up it goes.

I'm old enough to remember Trump supporters claiming all polls are bullshit - it's interesting that they're singing a different tune this cycle.

I'm pretty much on the "Trump is gonna win next year" bus. I just have this feeling. Leave it to Americans.

I’m staying off the road… Trump is driving that bus.

[Mega Hertz]

The fuck? Harris is beating Trump in Michigan? They must not have polled the buzz board.

I had the same thought. That doesn't pass the smell test.

The entire poll doesn’t make a whole lotta sense. I don’t discriminate in these though so up it goes.

I'm old enough to remember Trump supporters claiming all polls are bullshit - it's interesting that they're singing a different tune this cycle.

I'm pretty much on the "Trump is gonna win next year" bus. I just have this feeling. Leave it to Americans.

I’m staying off the road… Trump is driving that bus.

I just can't get over the fact that these are the only two men that could possibly be president. I used to pay good money for substances that made me delusional. And now it's fucking reality.

[Rate This]

The fuck? Harris is beating Trump in Michigan? They must not have polled the buzz board.

I had the same thought. That doesn't pass the smell test.

The entire poll doesn’t make a whole lotta sense. I don’t discriminate in these though so up it goes.

I'm old enough to remember Trump supporters claiming all polls are bullshit - it's interesting that they're singing a different tune this cycle.

I'm pretty much on the "Trump is gonna win next year" bus. I just have this feeling. Leave it to Americans.

I’m staying off the road… Trump is driving that bus.

I just can't get over the fact that these are the only two men that could possibly be president. I used to pay good money for substances that made me delusional. And now it's fucking reality.

That’ll save you quite a few bucks. Buzzboard pizza party!

[Rate This]

November 6

Trafalgar Group
Iowa GOP Caucus:
Trump 44
DeSantis 18
Haley 15
Scott 9
Ramaswamy 5
Christie 5

GOP Nomination:
Trump 50
Haley 15
DeSantis 13
Christie 5

CBS News
GOP Nomination:
Trump 61
DeSantis 18
Haley 9
Ramaswamy 5

Rasmussen Reports
GOP Nomination:
Trump 50
DeSantis 12
Haley 9
Christie 5

November 7

New York Times / Siena
Michigan General Election:
Trump 34
Biden 34
Kennedy 25

Georgia General Election:
Trump 38
Biden 31
Kennedy 23

Pennsylvania General Election:
Biden 36
Trump 36
Kennedy 21

Wisconsin General Election:
Biden 37
Trump 35
Kennedy 21

Nevada General Election:
Trump 40
Biden 34
Kennedy 19

Arizona General Election:
Biden 34
Trump 34
Kennedy 24

University of North Florida
Florida GOP Primary:
Trump 60
DeSantis 21
Haley 6

Morning Consult
GOP Nomination:
Trump 63
DeSantis 15
Haley 8
Ramaswamy 7

General Election:
Trump 44
Biden 42

Biden 41
DeSantis 39

November 8

CNN
GOP Nomination:
Trump 61
DeSantis 17
Haley 10

Democratic Nomination:
Biden 71
Phillips 11
Williamson 8

General Election:
Trump 49
Biden 45

DeSantis 48
Biden 46

Haley 49
Biden 43

Trump 41
Biden 35
Kennedy 16
West 4

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 48
Democrats 47

Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Georgia General Election:
Trump 45
Biden 44

Biden 43
DeSantis 42

Haley 43
Biden 41

Marquette
Wisconsin GOP Primary:
Trump 38
DeSantis 18
Haley 11

Wisconsin General Election:
Biden 50
Trump 48

DeSantis 50
Biden 48

Haley 53
Biden 44

LA Times / Berkeley IGS
California GOP Primary:
Trump 57
DeSantis 12
Haley 9

California General Election:
Biden 46
Trump 31

Biden 43
Trump 29
Kennedy 9
West 4

Economist / YouGov
Democrats 43
Republicans 42

November 9

Emerson
Michigan General Election:
Biden 45
Trump 43

Georgia:
Trump 49
Biden 41

Pennsylvania:
Trump 49
Biden 45

Wisconsin:
Trump 45
Biden 45

Nevada:
Trump 47
Biden 44

Arizona:
Trump 46
Biden 44

I&I / TIPP
GOP Nomination:
Trump 60
DeSantis 13
Ramaswamy 7
Haley 5

Democratic Nomination:
Biden 72
Williamson 4
Phillips 4

General Election:
Biden 43
Trump 41

Biden 39
Trump 37
Kennedy 9
West 2

PPIC
California GOP Primary:
Trump 53
DeSantis 12
Haley 9
Ramaswamy 5

California General Election:
Biden 60
Trump 29

November 10

Bloomberg / Morning Consult
Michigan General Election:
Trump 43
Biden 43

Biden 38
Trump 37
Kennedy 10
West 2

Georgia General Election:
Trump 48
Biden 41

Trump 43
Biden 34
Kennedy 10
West 1

Pennsylvania General Election:
Trump 47
Biden 44

Trump 41
Biden 38
Kennedy 8
West 1

Wisconsin General Election:
Trump 47
Biden 46

Trump 38
Biden 36
Kennedy 13
West 2

Nevada General Election:
Trump 46
Biden 43

Trump 39
Biden 35
Kennedy 11
West 1

Arizona General Election:
Trump 46
Biden 42

Trump 40
Biden 36
Kennedy 11
West 1

North Carolina General Election:
Trump 48
Biden 39

Trump 42
Biden 33
Kennedy 9
West 2

Data For Progress
Ohio General Election:
Trump 51
Biden 43

[bmw]

...

I remember you saying somewhere in here recently that Trump's ceiling is 46%. His RCP one-on-one matchup number has cracked that for the first time ever - including his 2016 and 2020 runs, both of which saw him peak around 45 point something.