2020 Presidential Polls

[bmw]

His numbers will improve over the coming months. I believe they are at a bottom.

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His numbers will improve over the coming months. I believe they are at a bottom.

Perhaps... but most likely Michigan and Pennsylvania are lost causes. Especially Michigan... He's 0-19 in polls here. All Biden needs is one more state. Bidens map is a hell of a lot more favorable than Trumps... It'll probably be Arizona that flips.

[TC Talks]

Ohio and Texas are possible?

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Ohio and Texas are possible?

As is Iowa... Florida, North Carolina, Georgia...

[TC Talks]

Let's see how badly he flips out over Nascar. That had all the indications that he is losing the corporate community.

[Matt]

https://www.cnn.com/2016/06/14/politics ... index.html

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https://www.cnn.com/2016/06/14/politics ... index.html

Except the dynamic is totally different now than it was in 2016. Plus it’s not just CNN thats coming up with 8,9,10+ point leads at the state and national level... he’s in trouble.

[TC Talks]

https://www.cnn.com/2016/06/14/politics ... index.html

Not many incumbents are as far behind as he is at this point before an election. At that point we didn't know how tremendously incompetent racist and dangerous as he has turned out to be.

[bmw]

I'm looking at the electoral map. I would currently put Biden up 238-205 with the following states as toss-ups:

-Florida
-North Carolina
-Pennsylvania
-Wisconsin
-Minnesota
-Arizona

I give Nevada, Colorado, and Michigan all to Biden with a 3/1 split in Maine.

Trump MUST win Florida AND North Carolina or its over. If he does take both of those states, then the score is 239-238 Trump with 4 states determining the winner.

The issue is, there are a number of combinations at that point that lead to a tie or a near-tie, and there were SEVEN defectors in the 2016 election (a footnote in history that most people either forgot or didn't even know about - 5 defected from Hillary and 2 from Trump). I don't even want to think about the possibility of the election being decided by electors who defect.

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I'm looking at the electoral map. I would currently put Biden up 238-205 with the following states as toss-ups:

-Florida
-North Carolina
-Pennsylvania
-Wisconsin
-Minnesota
-Arizona

I give Nevada, Colorado, and Michigan all to Biden with a 3/1 split in Maine.

Trump MUST win Florida AND North Carolina or its over. If he does take both of those states, then the score is 239-238 Trump with 4 states determining the winner.

The issue is, there are a number of combinations at that point that lead to a tie or a near-tie, and there were SEVEN defectors in the 2016 election (a footnote in history that most people either forgot or didn't even know about - 5 defected from Hillary and 2 from Trump). I don't even want to think about the possibility of the election being decided by electors who defect.

Biden has consistently led by more than 5 points in Arizona. That’s his to lose at this point. Minnesota isn’t in play at all. North Carolina and Florida are toss ups. Pennsylvania is Biden’s birth state and he has made a big deal of being the poor kid from Scranton who worked hard and achieved a lot and he’s been consistently up big there. Wisconsin is a toss up. Trump is simply playing defense in way too many places. What you really need to be thinking is lose two of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania plus one other swing state and it’s over. Lose all three of those states and it’s over.

Ohio is also in play as it appears is Iowa and Georgia too so you can add those to your list. Based on polls presently Biden would win 368-170. And that’s giving currently tied Iowa and Texas to Trump. You seem reluctant to admit it but he’s in serious trouble here.

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June 12

Cygnal
Florida:
Biden 47 Trump 44

TargetSmart
Georgia:
Trump 44 Biden 40

[TC Talks]

Think of it as who is the most repulsed by Trump.

[TC Talks]

Swing State Results From 538 6/12/20

Biden leads in some key battleground states
Average margin in states where at least three polls were conducted since May 1

STATE /AVERAGE MARGIN
Texas / R+1.5
Georgia / R+1.0
Pennsylvania / D+0.1
North Carolina / D+0.5
Florida / D+2.5
Arizona / D+3.3
Wisconsin / D+6.2
Michigan / D+7.6

Includes polls conducted from May 1 to June 11. Polls that released results among multiple populations were included only once, counting the narrowest sample — registered voters over adults, and likely voters over registered voters.

Trump is drafting cease and desist letters to the polling companies.

[TC Shuts Up]

I always advise my clients to lie and say they are going to vote for Biden. Either that or don't even answer the phone.

What can they say? It's not against the law.

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I always advise my clients to lie and say they are going to vote for Biden. Either that or don't even answer the phone.

What can they say? It's not against the law.

Why though? Are you and by extension they self conscious about Trump? Are you afraid they are secretly laughing at you? Do you really know deep down that Biden is better?