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Terms of Use have been amended effective October 6, 2019. Make sure you are aware of the new rules! Please visit this thread for details: https://www.mibuzzboard.com/phpBB3/view ... 16&t=48619
Election day Predictions
Re: Election day Predictions
Well I just put down $488 of real money on PredictIt, spread between 10 races.
Re: Election day Predictions
On PredictIt you buy shares - each share pays $1.00 to the winner and nothing to the loser. Shares are priced between 1 cent and 99 cents. So if you buy a share at 50 cents and are correct, you double your money.
I played things fairly safe as follows:
Senate:
$133.98 for 174 shares of Texas going republican (77 cents per share)
$81 for 100 shares of Tennessee going republican (81 cents per share)
$63.75 for 75 shares of North Dakota going republican (85 cents per share)
$25 for 50 shares of Arizona going republican (50 cents per share)
$30.50 for 50 shares of Missouri going republican (61 cents per share)
Races I avoided - Florida, Nevada, Montana, and Indiana. If I had to bet, I'd go D, D, D, R respectively. But I'll never put my money on a democrat winning. Just can't do it.
Additional Senate buys:
50 shares each of Senate balance of power being 52 R or 53 R, 17 cents each (so $17 to win $50 if exact R total is 52 or 53)
Hitting all of the above would pay $499 on a $351 investment. And with the way I played this, I virtually break-even as long as nothing stupid happens in Texas, North Dakota, or Tennessee (as those recover $349 of the $351).
House:
Picked republicans in the following races:
OH 12
KY 6
NM 2
VA 2
WA 8
CA 25
Altogether about $137 invested in these races. Shares mostly range between 35 and 70 cents. Would close to double if I hit everything.
I wish I would have bet here in 2016. I would have cleaned house.
I played things fairly safe as follows:
Senate:
$133.98 for 174 shares of Texas going republican (77 cents per share)
$81 for 100 shares of Tennessee going republican (81 cents per share)
$63.75 for 75 shares of North Dakota going republican (85 cents per share)
$25 for 50 shares of Arizona going republican (50 cents per share)
$30.50 for 50 shares of Missouri going republican (61 cents per share)
Races I avoided - Florida, Nevada, Montana, and Indiana. If I had to bet, I'd go D, D, D, R respectively. But I'll never put my money on a democrat winning. Just can't do it.
Additional Senate buys:
50 shares each of Senate balance of power being 52 R or 53 R, 17 cents each (so $17 to win $50 if exact R total is 52 or 53)
Hitting all of the above would pay $499 on a $351 investment. And with the way I played this, I virtually break-even as long as nothing stupid happens in Texas, North Dakota, or Tennessee (as those recover $349 of the $351).
House:
Picked republicans in the following races:
OH 12
KY 6
NM 2
VA 2
WA 8
CA 25
Altogether about $137 invested in these races. Shares mostly range between 35 and 70 cents. Would close to double if I hit everything.
I wish I would have bet here in 2016. I would have cleaned house.
Re: Election day Predictions
What's wrong with the status quo? Do you really hate economic growth?Mega Hertz wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 8:46 amAs for the actual election, I hate doing these because it sets up expectations and that never ends well for me.
In this house, we will be casting votes for Slotkin and Whitmer.
Nationally, I believe Republicans will hold in the Senate and the Democrats will make gains in the house. They may even get a majority, but knowing the Democrats, they'll be stupid enough to help do Republicans' bidding. Changes will not be as drastic as they like to think. Odds are we will keep the status quo. Lovely.
Voting for Trump is dumber than playing Russian Roulette with fully loaded chambers.
Re: Election day Predictions
Built on stimulus at an inappropriate time and using a tax cut that’ll flame out and come back to 1-2% growth in about a year or so? Yes... that kind of stinks... you cannot sustain 3-4% growth in an economy as developed as ours... sorry it just isn’t sustainable and the tax cut blew a hole in the budget which will be greatly exacerbated by the next recession in 1-2 years... this is a 9 and a half year old recovery... it’s closing in on the end of that runMatt wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:37 amWhat's wrong with the status quo? Do you really hate economic growth?Mega Hertz wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 8:46 amAs for the actual election, I hate doing these because it sets up expectations and that never ends well for me.
In this house, we will be casting votes for Slotkin and Whitmer.
Nationally, I believe Republicans will hold in the Senate and the Democrats will make gains in the house. They may even get a majority, but knowing the Democrats, they'll be stupid enough to help do Republicans' bidding. Changes will not be as drastic as they like to think. Odds are we will keep the status quo. Lovely.
Re: Election day Predictions
BMW, who wins between Bishop-Slotkin and Epstein-Stephens?
Voting for Trump is dumber than playing Russian Roulette with fully loaded chambers.
Re: Election day Predictions
I think Bishop holds on, but Stephens probably wins. At least she'll get to move out of her mom's basement...
Voting for Trump is dumber than playing Russian Roulette with fully loaded chambers.
Re: Election day Predictions
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Re: Election day Predictions
Nope. And I haven't hated it in the past nine or so years it's been growing, either.Matt wrote: ↑Tue Nov 06, 2018 4:37 amWhat's wrong with the status quo? Do you really hate economic growth?Mega Hertz wrote: ↑Sun Nov 04, 2018 8:46 amAs for the actual election, I hate doing these because it sets up expectations and that never ends well for me.
In this house, we will be casting votes for Slotkin and Whitmer.
Nationally, I believe Republicans will hold in the Senate and the Democrats will make gains in the house. They may even get a majority, but knowing the Democrats, they'll be stupid enough to help do Republicans' bidding. Changes will not be as drastic as they like to think. Odds are we will keep the status quo. Lovely.
"Internet is no more like radio than intravenous feeding is like fine dining."
-TurkeyTop
-TurkeyTop
Re: Election day Predictions
Kind of like Stephens' claim that she saved the auto industry?
My predictions:
Whitmer, Benson, and Leonard win. All 3 proposals pass.
Stabenow wins by low double digits.
Republicans keep the Senate in Washington and Lansing, but lose the House in both, albeit narrowly.
Voting for Trump is dumber than playing Russian Roulette with fully loaded chambers.
Re: Election day Predictions
I am predicting that the State House stays in the hands of the Republican's by a very narrow margin. Leonard becomes the new Attorney General. Whitmere wins. James looses by five points.
Those are the only outcomes I'm rather sure of.
Those are the only outcomes I'm rather sure of.
New York and Chicago were all in with respect to their sanctuary status — until they were hit with the challenge of actually providing sanctuary. In other words, typical liberal hypocrisy.
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Re: Election day Predictions
I hope Leonard wins. I thought he was a terrific House Speaker.
Many of Nessel's own staff could not stand her; much of her campaign staff quit. That's all I need to know.
The SoS race will be an interesting one to watch, as will the Supreme Court race.
BTW, I'm proud to say that I did *not* vote for Julie McDonald for Sixth Circuit Court in Oakland County. I opted for one of the write-in candidates. It was a tough choice between Michael J. Blau and Maryann Bruder, but I opted for Mr. Blau. He seems to have a stronger desire for the seat.
For the other open seat on the Sixth Circuit bench, both listed candidates (Daniel Christ and Jake Cunningham) are well qualified and would likely serve the county well. I understand this seat handles Family Court cases. What Mr. Cunningham has accomplished at a relatively young age impresses me, so I went with him.
Almost forgot to mention - when I voted an hour ago, my precinct was pretty empty. I was first in line for the next available voting booth. Only four or five people were in line behind me. The gentleman who inserts the ballots into the machine confided that there was a brief machine malfunction earlier in the day. Prior to being handed my ballot, I was told there was heavy traffic there earlier in the day and that I "timed it right."
In terms of my votes by party - for partisan races, I voted for three Democrats total; the rest of my votes went to Republicans. I did notice that no incumbents were running for reelection for the MSU Board of Trustees.
Many of Nessel's own staff could not stand her; much of her campaign staff quit. That's all I need to know.
The SoS race will be an interesting one to watch, as will the Supreme Court race.
BTW, I'm proud to say that I did *not* vote for Julie McDonald for Sixth Circuit Court in Oakland County. I opted for one of the write-in candidates. It was a tough choice between Michael J. Blau and Maryann Bruder, but I opted for Mr. Blau. He seems to have a stronger desire for the seat.
For the other open seat on the Sixth Circuit bench, both listed candidates (Daniel Christ and Jake Cunningham) are well qualified and would likely serve the county well. I understand this seat handles Family Court cases. What Mr. Cunningham has accomplished at a relatively young age impresses me, so I went with him.
Almost forgot to mention - when I voted an hour ago, my precinct was pretty empty. I was first in line for the next available voting booth. Only four or five people were in line behind me. The gentleman who inserts the ballots into the machine confided that there was a brief machine malfunction earlier in the day. Prior to being handed my ballot, I was told there was heavy traffic there earlier in the day and that I "timed it right."
In terms of my votes by party - for partisan races, I voted for three Democrats total; the rest of my votes went to Republicans. I did notice that no incumbents were running for reelection for the MSU Board of Trustees.
Morgan Wallen is a piece of garbage.
Re: Election day Predictions
Not sure how much to read into this, but:
My poling place had two precincts. One encompasses many of the apartment complexes in the area an leans heavily Democrat. The other leans heavily Republican. There were long lines for the Democrat precinct and no wait whatsoever to cast a ballot in the other.
Might not be a good sign for the Republicans this election.
My poling place had two precincts. One encompasses many of the apartment complexes in the area an leans heavily Democrat. The other leans heavily Republican. There were long lines for the Democrat precinct and no wait whatsoever to cast a ballot in the other.
Might not be a good sign for the Republicans this election.
New York and Chicago were all in with respect to their sanctuary status — until they were hit with the challenge of actually providing sanctuary. In other words, typical liberal hypocrisy.