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bmw
- Posts: 7043
- Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am
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by bmw » Sat May 25, 2024 3:58 pm
Rate This wrote: ↑Mon Apr 22, 2024 10:21 am
By 10 no less… bettors usually don’t put their necks out and make fanboy bets so I count this as a good sign for now.
Interesting perspective, since it has swung 18 points the other direction. Trump now favored 53-45.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detai ... l-election
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Rate This
- Posts: 14592
- Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:17 am
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by Rate This » Sat May 25, 2024 11:59 pm
bmw wrote: ↑Sat May 25, 2024 3:58 pm
Rate This wrote: ↑Mon Apr 22, 2024 10:21 am
By 10 no less… bettors usually don’t put their necks out and make fanboy bets so I count this as a good sign for now.
Interesting perspective, since it has swung 18 points the other direction. Trump now favored 53-45.
https://www.predictit.org/markets/detai ... l-election
So I should put the over under for post world war 2 America at 8 months or so and consider the stock in 1880’s America as a rising asset?
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Rate This
- Posts: 14592
- Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:17 am
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by Rate This » Tue May 28, 2024 9:58 am
Interesting graph from The New York Times/Siena poll… Trump has a 14-point lead among 2020 nonvoters. Biden leads by 2 among those who voted in 2020. This could be a flashing light for Trump if he can’t get these marginal folks to actually follow through.
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audiophile
- Posts: 8660
- Joined: Sat Dec 04, 2004 9:21 pm
- Location: Between 88 and 108 MHz.
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by audiophile » Tue May 28, 2024 4:00 pm
Ask not what your country can do FOR you; ask what they are about to do TO YOU!!
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bmw
- Posts: 7043
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by bmw » Tue May 28, 2024 10:36 pm
I read that data very differently than you do. If that were to hold, Trump would probably win both the Electoral College and the popular vote.
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Rate This
- Posts: 14592
- Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:17 am
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by Rate This » Tue May 28, 2024 11:36 pm
bmw wrote: ↑Tue May 28, 2024 10:36 pm
I read that data very differently than you do. If that were to hold, Trump would probably win both the Electoral College and the popular vote.
The thing is they are least likely to vote. It's great to get extra support but if push comes to shove you want the folks with a track record in your column going in.
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Rate This
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- Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:17 am
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by Rate This » Wed May 29, 2024 12:14 am
May 28
MIRS / Mitchell Research
Michigan General Election:
Trump 49
Biden 47
Trump 46
Biden 45
Kennedy 5
Stein 1
West 1
Michigan Senate General Election:
Slotkin 40
Rogers 36
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bmw
- Posts: 7043
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by bmw » Wed May 29, 2024 9:11 am
I think you're missing the bigger picture there. Per that graphic, Biden's support has fallen by about 2.5 points among those who voted last time around. If you take 2020 numbers and apply an across-the-board 2.5-point cut to Biden's margin of victory, then Trump wins Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Throw in even a tiny number of people from the did-not-vote group and you can add Michigan to that list.
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TC Talks
- Posts: 10803
- Joined: Wed Oct 26, 2005 2:41 am
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by TC Talks » Wed May 29, 2024 7:30 pm
Rate This wrote: ↑Tue May 28, 2024 11:36 pm
bmw wrote: ↑Tue May 28, 2024 10:36 pm
I read that data very differently than you do. If that were to hold, Trump would probably win both the Electoral College and the popular vote.
The thing is they are least likely to vote. It's great to get extra support but if push comes to shove you want the folks with a track record in your column going in.
My dad falls into this category. We had a lengthy discussion about it this weekend. He's not voting this time for any of the federal elections, only local. When we pushed him, he said he would vote Republican if forced to vote. He's in effect staying home.
There are no hot button issues except Abortion and Birth Control and guess who overwhelmingly wins those issues (by 60 - 70%)
“Blessed are those who are righteous in his name.”
― Matt
Posting Content © 2024 TC Talks Holdings LP.
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Rate This
- Posts: 14592
- Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:17 am
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by Rate This » Thu May 30, 2024 12:45 am
May 29
Roanoke College
Virginia General Election:
Trump 42
Biden 42
Biden 40
Trump 38
Kennedy 8
Stein 3
West 1
Morning Consult
General Election:
Trump 44
Biden 42
Economist / YouGov
General Election:
Trump 41
Biden 40
Kennedy 4
Stein 1
West 1
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 44
Republicans 42
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Rate This
- Posts: 14592
- Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:17 am
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by Rate This » Fri May 31, 2024 1:34 am
It will be fascinating to see how the guilty verdict effects the polls. In the meantime...
May 30
The Hill / Emerson
New York General Election:
Biden 48
Trump 41
Biden 44
Trump 38
Kennedy 6
West 2
Stein 1
NPR / PBS / Marist
General Election:
Biden 50
Trump 48
Trump 44
Biden 40
Kennedy 8
Stein 3
West 2
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 45
Democrats 45
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Rate This
- Posts: 14592
- Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:17 am
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by Rate This » Sat Jun 01, 2024 8:24 pm
So these are results that reflect a survey period of May 30 and 31. So half before and half after the verdict.
June 1
Forbes / HarrisX
General Election:
Trump 51
Biden 49
Trump 43
Biden 41
Kennedy 13
Stein 2
West 2
Reuters / Ipsos
General Election:
Biden 41
Trump 39
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MotorCityRadioFreak
- Posts: 6577
- Joined: Wed Jul 29, 2020 6:26 am
- Location: Warren, MI
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by MotorCityRadioFreak » Sat Jun 01, 2024 8:59 pm
Rate This wrote: ↑Thu May 30, 2024 12:45 am
May 29
Roanoke College
Virginia General Election:
Trump 42
Biden 42
Biden 40
Trump 38
Kennedy 8
Stein 3
West 1
Morning Consult
General Election:
Trump 44
Biden 42
Economist / YouGov
General Election:
Trump 41
Biden 40
Kennedy 4
Stein 1
West 1
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 44
Republicans 42
I am not buying that. The Virginia DC suburbs are still firmly blue. I think Biden wins the state by at least 5 points. Also YouGov is infiltrated with Russian bots.
They/them, non-binary and proud.
Remember that “2000 Mules” was concocted by a circus of elephants.
The right needs to stop worry about what’s between people’s legs. Instead, they should focus on what’s between their ears.
Audacity sucks.
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Rate This
- Posts: 14592
- Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2020 12:17 am
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by Rate This » Sun Jun 02, 2024 8:21 pm
June 2
Morning Consult
General Election:
Biden 45
Trump 44
This represents a 2 point swing towards Biden and is our first poll taken entirely after the verdict.
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Matt
- Posts: 10290
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- Location: Home of the National Champions
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by Matt » Sun Jun 02, 2024 8:39 pm
Rate This wrote: ↑Sun Jun 02, 2024 8:21 pm
June 2
Morning Consult
General Election:
Biden 45
Trump 44
This represents a 2 point swing towards Biden and is our first poll taken entirely after the verdict.
Any chance BMW's thread from earlier saying that the only chance to beat Trump was to dump Biden was a panic thread on his part?
Voting for Trump is dumber than playing Russian Roulette with fully loaded chambers.
