2024 Presidential Primary Polling Thread

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Trump +13 in Nevada. Election almost certainly won't be that close in that state, but I do think Nevada is the most likely pickup for Trump with Georgia being a very close second. That would put him at 254 compared to 2020, then it comes down to 4 states - MI, WI, PA, and AZ. He would need MI alone, PA alone, or AZ+WI. As of late, MI has been moving back towards Biden, but PA has been trending towards Trump.

So you think he’ll win Nevada by more than 13? The Siena numbers smell funny to me. And that’s the same thing that happened last time we had numbers from them. I think some of these pollsters have over corrected for shy Trump voters models of the electorate and its skewing things towards him. My guess is that Biden takes the northern route and focuses on Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. As usual it’s a blue wall. If he wins all 3 Biden is nearly home free. I also don’t buy all of the ticket splitting not to mention that Biden is consistently doing better among likely voters. Your continued enthusiasm and absolute certainty of a Trump win is not warranted at this time. It’s way too early man. Talk to us in September or October about how wonderful he’s doing. If he wins use your betting skills to score some quick cash and bet on how long it takes him to declare for 2028.

[bmw]

I mist-stated that. What I meant to say was that I don't think he'll win by that large of a margin, but that he'll still win.

Speaking of the blue wall in the midwest, I see Biden just instituted a 100% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles. This is one of Trump's big issues at his rallies, and I suspect Biden's move was politically driven insofar as Trump must have been winning on that issue.

[TC Talks]

Biden wants Union workers back to blue. There are no political downsides for this populist move, despite fucking up the solar economy.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Don’t be shocked if NC goes blue. Lot of people pissed off at the horrible homophobe running for governor might do Biden a solid.

[Matt]

This seems like a realistic razor-thin, Biden win: https://www.270towin.com/maps/Pg6jL

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I would point out that Haley is still getting 20% in a lot of places including 25% in closed primary Republican only Maryland’s primary tonight. He has a massive problem and he won’t try to get her voters and as much as that gladdens my heart Beemer should be nervous and understand Trump is a fool for not reaching out to them. He is turning them off and he CANNOT afford to lose 5% of them let alone 15 or 20%. He’ll be crushed with those kinds of numbers.

May 14

Morning Consult
General Election:
Trump 44
Biden 43

Yahoo! News
General Election:
Trump 45
Biden 45

I would also point out that in the Maryland Senate race the polls were way off… maybe there is a problem. A 2.5% average lead for one candidate turned out to be a 12 point win for the other candidate.

[FakeAndyStuart]

Maryland D Senate primary - the most recent poll showed Alsobrooks at 47%, Trone 44%. Which left 9% undecided or other candidate. And since Alsobrooks is up by 12% and projected to win by that much, where did that poll go wrong?

Anyone using current polling - where the question is "If Election Day was today, who would you vote for President?" - to predict November results is a fool. Because Election Day ISN'T today. And someone who just paid a lot of money for groceries or just watched a TikTok video from Gaza is likely to answer emotionally..

[zzand]

In some areas of Indiana Haley got 30 percent of the vote and overall 21 percent. I agree that Trump needs to get her voters or he could face a major issue in November.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

Polling still does not accurately reach those under 55. Boomers are much more likely to answer a cell phone and extremely more likely to still have a landline than Gen X and younger.

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May 15

Reuters / IPSOS
General Election:
Trump 46
Biden 46

Economist / YouGov
General Election:
Trump 42
Biden 41
Kennedy 3
West 1
Stein 1

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 45
Republicans 42

KSTP Minneapolis / Survey USA
Minnesota General Election:
Biden 44
Trump 42

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May 16

FOX News
General Election:
Trump 49
Biden 48

Trump 43
Biden 40
Kennedy 11
West 2
Stein 2

[bmw]

As interesting as the polls are, here are some betting odds as they currently sit at the Bovada Sportsbook:

Trump -120, Biden +110 (equates to roughly 54% chance of Trump win, 45% for Biden)

Popular vote winner - about 2.5 to 1 in favor of Biden

Republican VP favorite - Doug Burgum (Tim Scott and JD Vance not far behind)

Felony conviction on at least 1 count in Hush Money trial - -175 yes, +125 no (don't know exact math here, but that's about 60% chance of a conviction, which I find surprisingly high)

Hung jury - roughly 1 in 5 chance (I think it is much higher than that)

Trump to testify - very low at -2900 vs +900 which equates to less than a 10 percent chance

Ever a conviction in classified documents case - literal coin flip

Ever a conviction in Georgia election interference case - very slightly in favor of no

Will Trump serve any prison time whatsoever prior to election - roughly 1 in 7 chance (most of which I suspect comes from possibility of violating gag order again)

Will Joe Biden pardon Trump prior to 2024 election - just under 10 percent (I'm going with a big fat NO here, unless his advisors determine for whatever reason that Democrats would politically benefit).

Will Biden use the phrase "shut up" during the first debate - slightly better than coin flip that he will (personally I doubt it)

Over/under for number of times Trump says either "stolen" or "rigged" - 9.5 (I'll take the under, but not by much)

Winner of first debate per CNN post-debate poll - about a 60 percent chance it will be Biden (sounds reasonable to me)

[zzand]

Read an article this morning where Trump is more or less demanding than Biden take a drug test before the debate. Sounds to me like he is looking for a way out. Not sure why but that is just the feeling I have

[bmw]

Read an article this morning where Trump is more or less demanding than Biden take a drug test before the debate. Sounds to me like he is looking for a way out. Not sure why but that is just the feeling I have

My guess is that this is not a way to look for an out, but rather pre-building a line of attack - that if Biden is suddenly all chipper and energetic to start the debate, Trump will point that out and say that Biden refuses to take a drug test.

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Read an article this morning where Trump is more or less demanding than Biden take a drug test before the debate. Sounds to me like he is looking for a way out. Not sure why but that is just the feeling I have

My guess is that this is not a way to look for an out, but rather pre-building a line of attack - that if Biden is suddenly all chipper and energetic to start the debate, Trump will point that out and say that Biden refuses to take a drug test.

And Trump will look absolutely terrible when he does that. It could actually cost him independents to accuse the sitting president of being on drugs because he did well in a debate. But actually they really are probably trying to build a way to back out. Trump has all sorts of verbal malfunctions at his rallies now where he shorts out and can’t pronounce words or his words become solid sounds. He glitches. 90 minutes off the cuff would probably expose that. Everybody knows Biden stutters and misspeaks. Mr. Tuff guy can’t let his ego go through the embarrassment. He accepted a 3rd debate on FOX in October which wasn’t offered by them already. It’s conceivable that when Biden says “uh… no” he backs out of the other two debates in retaliation. They’ve set those pins up to be knocked down at least.