The Republicans Are Going to Win Big Nationally

[TC Talks]

Facts:

A) Whitmer orders COVID closures (like most states)
B) DeVos's PAC hires "protesters" and organizes a rally.https://www.bridgemi.com/michigan-gover ... -order?amp
C) People ignore COVID precautions, Michigan ends up on the top 10 COVID deaths per capita list.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... cases.html
D) Republicans are overwhelmingly likely to die from COVID outside essential workers. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/fixgov/2 ... ion-sites/

See how facts can help someone make determinations?

I understand that you will argue this point into the ground, but how are all those non-vaxer friends and family doing these days?

Whitmer failed on covid. She should have followed what DeSantis did in Florida. She killed soooo many old people.

Florida was worse for fatalities. To be fair, they had more old people per capita. The elderly faired the worse, that's why I am in disbelief why Trump mocked the vaccine.

[bmw]

Florida was worse for fatalities.

Once again, you get your facts wrong. Per the New York Times, as of today, Michigan sits at 388 deaths per 100k while Florida sits at 380.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... cases.html

So Michigan was worse EVEN DESPITE having a younger population. Oh, that's right, Betsy DeVos was the cause of the excess deaths because she was supposedly behind funding some rallies whereby people protested our governor's unconstitutional shutdown orders.

[Rate This]

Florida was worse for fatalities.

Once again, you get your facts wrong. Per the New York Times, as of today, Michigan sits at 388 deaths per 100k while Florida sits at 380.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... cases.html

So Michigan was worse EVEN DESPITE having a younger population. Oh, that's right, Betsy DeVos was the cause of the excess deaths because she was supposedly behind funding some rallies whereby people protested our governor's unconstitutional shutdown orders.

I would not exactly celebrate a difference of 8 when the number is pushing 400.

[Matt]

As an aside, the one thing that could lead to a gigantic red tsunami is if there are a record number of Republicans (disgruntled over 2020) that aren't answering polls. This is a complete unknown right now, but if Republicans do significantly outperform the polls nationally, this will be why.

That’s basically the $64 question. Though Democratic enthusiasm is through the roof right now and is slightly higher than Republican enthusiasm. I wouldn’t discount abortion driving people out. And there are more Democratic leaners than Republican leaners on the whole. The problem for a long time has been that Democrats simply don’t show up in the midterms. If that’s changing then we don’t get a red wave. I think the Republicans may end up with a 5-10 seat majority in the house. Nevada is probably going red. Ohio, Wisconsin and North Carolina are true toss-ups. Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania probably go blue. This may end up more like 1998 or 2002 than say 1994 or 2010. My guess is that the Republicans end up around 225 and the Democrats end up at 51-52.

Although I use RCP for polling they do include some polls that don’t make sense. Emerson has had a clear Republican bias this cycle. Trafalgar has come up with some astoundingly whackadoodle polls too… the Republican Gubernatorial candidate down 2 in New York? Really???

The site itself is also clearly fairly right wing.

Here in Michigan I expect all 3 to win in a walk on the strength of turnout on the abortion issue. Since Dobbs was decided the Democrats have outperformed the partisan makeup of the district in every special election that’s been held. And the stunning result in Kansas as well as polls in places the Democrats have no business being competitive in like North Dakota At Large being a 4 point contest (!)… something is up.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/new-yo ... ns-toss-up

[Rate This]

As an aside, the one thing that could lead to a gigantic red tsunami is if there are a record number of Republicans (disgruntled over 2020) that aren't answering polls. This is a complete unknown right now, but if Republicans do significantly outperform the polls nationally, this will be why.

That’s basically the $64 question. Though Democratic enthusiasm is through the roof right now and is slightly higher than Republican enthusiasm. I wouldn’t discount abortion driving people out. And there are more Democratic leaners than Republican leaners on the whole. The problem for a long time has been that Democrats simply don’t show up in the midterms. If that’s changing then we don’t get a red wave. I think the Republicans may end up with a 5-10 seat majority in the house. Nevada is probably going red. Ohio, Wisconsin and North Carolina are true toss-ups. Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania probably go blue. This may end up more like 1998 or 2002 than say 1994 or 2010. My guess is that the Republicans end up around 225 and the Democrats end up at 51-52.

Although I use RCP for polling they do include some polls that don’t make sense. Emerson has had a clear Republican bias this cycle. Trafalgar has come up with some astoundingly whackadoodle polls too… the Republican Gubernatorial candidate down 2 in New York? Really???

The site itself is also clearly fairly right wing.

Here in Michigan I expect all 3 to win in a walk on the strength of turnout on the abortion issue. Since Dobbs was decided the Democrats have outperformed the partisan makeup of the district in every special election that’s been held. And the stunning result in Kansas as well as polls in places the Democrats have no business being competitive in like North Dakota At Large being a 4 point contest (!)… something is up.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/new-yo ... ns-toss-up

Beats me…

The only thing I can think of is they have switched from Registered to Likely voters.

Someone should tell FOX that there is an independent in the Oregon race that is splitting the Democratic vote before they celebrate too hard and pull something.

[MotorCityRadioFreak]

As an aside, the one thing that could lead to a gigantic red tsunami is if there are a record number of Republicans (disgruntled over 2020) that aren't answering polls. This is a complete unknown right now, but if Republicans do significantly outperform the polls nationally, this will be why.

That’s basically the $64 question. Though Democratic enthusiasm is through the roof right now and is slightly higher than Republican enthusiasm. I wouldn’t discount abortion driving people out. And there are more Democratic leaners than Republican leaners on the whole. The problem for a long time has been that Democrats simply don’t show up in the midterms. If that’s changing then we don’t get a red wave. I think the Republicans may end up with a 5-10 seat majority in the house. Nevada is probably going red. Ohio, Wisconsin and North Carolina are true toss-ups. Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania probably go blue. This may end up more like 1998 or 2002 than say 1994 or 2010. My guess is that the Republicans end up around 225 and the Democrats end up at 51-52.

Although I use RCP for polling they do include some polls that don’t make sense. Emerson has had a clear Republican bias this cycle. Trafalgar has come up with some astoundingly whackadoodle polls too… the Republican Gubernatorial candidate down 2 in New York? Really???

The site itself is also clearly fairly right wing.

Here in Michigan I expect all 3 to win in a walk on the strength of turnout on the abortion issue. Since Dobbs was decided the Democrats have outperformed the partisan makeup of the district in every special election that’s been held. And the stunning result in Kansas as well as polls in places the Democrats have no business being competitive in like North Dakota At Large being a 4 point contest (!)… something is up.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/new-yo ... ns-toss-up

Beats me…

The only thing I can think of is they have switched from Registered to Likely voters.

Someone should tell FOX that there is an independent in the Oregon race that is splitting the Democratic vote before they celebrate too hard and pull something.

Does Oregon have ranked choice voting?

[Rate This]

As an aside, the one thing that could lead to a gigantic red tsunami is if there are a record number of Republicans (disgruntled over 2020) that aren't answering polls. This is a complete unknown right now, but if Republicans do significantly outperform the polls nationally, this will be why.

That’s basically the $64 question. Though Democratic enthusiasm is through the roof right now and is slightly higher than Republican enthusiasm. I wouldn’t discount abortion driving people out. And there are more Democratic leaners than Republican leaners on the whole. The problem for a long time has been that Democrats simply don’t show up in the midterms. If that’s changing then we don’t get a red wave. I think the Republicans may end up with a 5-10 seat majority in the house. Nevada is probably going red. Ohio, Wisconsin and North Carolina are true toss-ups. Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania probably go blue. This may end up more like 1998 or 2002 than say 1994 or 2010. My guess is that the Republicans end up around 225 and the Democrats end up at 51-52.

Although I use RCP for polling they do include some polls that don’t make sense. Emerson has had a clear Republican bias this cycle. Trafalgar has come up with some astoundingly whackadoodle polls too… the Republican Gubernatorial candidate down 2 in New York? Really???

The site itself is also clearly fairly right wing.

Here in Michigan I expect all 3 to win in a walk on the strength of turnout on the abortion issue. Since Dobbs was decided the Democrats have outperformed the partisan makeup of the district in every special election that’s been held. And the stunning result in Kansas as well as polls in places the Democrats have no business being competitive in like North Dakota At Large being a 4 point contest (!)… something is up.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/new-yo ... ns-toss-up

Beats me…

The only thing I can think of is they have switched from Registered to Likely voters.

Someone should tell FOX that there is an independent in the Oregon race that is splitting the Democratic vote before they celebrate too hard and pull something.

Does Oregon have ranked choice voting?

No… but it is on the ballot as an initiative so they are trying to get it.

[audiophile]

Carpetbagger Slotkin should be ousted, but will she be?

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/elissa ... -two-years

I think congress needs to switch to technology and require them in their local district office on a daily basis.

[bmw]

With passing day, this is looking more and more like a larger-than-expected red wave may be coming.

I'm revising my House seat gain for Republicans up to +30 seats and I think Republicans will take a majority, albeit slim, in the Senate with either 51 or 52 seats. I think Oz is going to take Pennsylvania and I think Walker is now a coin flip to take Georgia.

[Rate This]

With passing day, this is looking more and more like a larger-than-expected red wave may be coming.

I'm revising my House seat gain for Republicans up to +30 seats and I think Republicans will take a majority, albeit slim, in the Senate with either 51 or 52 seats. I think Oz is going to take Pennsylvania and I think Walker is now a coin flip to take Georgia.

I highly doubt the Republicans will take the senate. Oz still isn't leading in Pennsylvania... not ONCE yet. I still think we are looking at a likely voter makeup that may be undercounting Democrats enthusiasm. I'm going maybe a 10 seat gain still. Everything is narrowing to a tie... I don't see any reversing of direction in any substantial way yet. Just a lot of Republicans coming home after brutal primaries all over the place.

[Honeyman]

With passing day, this is looking more and more like a larger-than-expected red wave may be coming.

I'm revising my House seat gain for Republicans up to +30 seats and I think Republicans will take a majority, albeit slim, in the Senate with either 51 or 52 seats. I think Oz is going to take Pennsylvania and I think Walker is now a coin flip to take Georgia.

I highly doubt the Republicans will take the senate. Oz still isn't leading in Pennsylvania... not ONCE yet. I still think we are looking at a likely voter makeup that may be undercounting Democrats enthusiasm. I'm going maybe a 10 seat gain still. Everything is narrowing to a tie... I don't see any reversing of direction in any substantial way yet. Just a lot of Republicans coming home after brutal primaries all over the place.

Hate to say it Rate, but I think Beemer is right. Republicans simply don't care. They all know Walker is a complete idiot and in no way qualified to be a senator, but they'll vote for him because of the R next to his name. They know Oz could give one fuck about the people of Pennsylvania, but want that seat. Masters is an idiot....but Arizonans?!? GOP will win the Senate.

[Rate This]

With passing day, this is looking more and more like a larger-than-expected red wave may be coming.

I'm revising my House seat gain for Republicans up to +30 seats and I think Republicans will take a majority, albeit slim, in the Senate with either 51 or 52 seats. I think Oz is going to take Pennsylvania and I think Walker is now a coin flip to take Georgia.

I highly doubt the Republicans will take the senate. Oz still isn't leading in Pennsylvania... not ONCE yet. I still think we are looking at a likely voter makeup that may be undercounting Democrats enthusiasm. I'm going maybe a 10 seat gain still. Everything is narrowing to a tie... I don't see any reversing of direction in any substantial way yet. Just a lot of Republicans coming home after brutal primaries all over the place.

Hate to say it Rate, but I think Beemer is right. Republicans simply don't care. They all know Walker is a complete idiot and in no way qualified to be a senator, but they'll vote for him because of the R next to his name. They know Oz could give one fuck about the people of Pennsylvania, but want that seat. Masters is an idiot....but Arizonans?!? GOP will win the Senate.

For that matter Walker isn't leading yet either... nor is masters.... So they are just gonna magically wake up on Tuesday and win?
We have evidence of NARROWING... none of the three have LEADS anywhere. Its a H*** leap to figure they'll just win.

[Honeyman]

With passing day, this is looking more and more like a larger-than-expected red wave may be coming.

I'm revising my House seat gain for Republicans up to +30 seats and I think Republicans will take a majority, albeit slim, in the Senate with either 51 or 52 seats. I think Oz is going to take Pennsylvania and I think Walker is now a coin flip to take Georgia.

I highly doubt the Republicans will take the senate. Oz still isn't leading in Pennsylvania... not ONCE yet. I still think we are looking at a likely voter makeup that may be undercounting Democrats enthusiasm. I'm going maybe a 10 seat gain still. Everything is narrowing to a tie... I don't see any reversing of direction in any substantial way yet. Just a lot of Republicans coming home after brutal primaries all over the place.

Hate to say it Rate, but I think Beemer is right. Republicans simply don't care. They all know Walker is a complete idiot and in no way qualified to be a senator, but they'll vote for him because of the R next to his name. They know Oz could give one fuck about the people of Pennsylvania, but want that seat. Masters is an idiot....but Arizonans?!? GOP will win the Senate.

For that matter Walker isn't leading yet either... nor is masters.... So they are just gonna magically wake up on Tuesday and win?
We have evidence of NARROWING... none of the three have LEADS anywhere. Its a H*** leap to figure they'll just win.

Just my feeling.

[Rate This]

With passing day, this is looking more and more like a larger-than-expected red wave may be coming.

I'm revising my House seat gain for Republicans up to +30 seats and I think Republicans will take a majority, albeit slim, in the Senate with either 51 or 52 seats. I think Oz is going to take Pennsylvania and I think Walker is now a coin flip to take Georgia.

I highly doubt the Republicans will take the senate. Oz still isn't leading in Pennsylvania... not ONCE yet. I still think we are looking at a likely voter makeup that may be undercounting Democrats enthusiasm. I'm going maybe a 10 seat gain still. Everything is narrowing to a tie... I don't see any reversing of direction in any substantial way yet. Just a lot of Republicans coming home after brutal primaries all over the place.

Hate to say it Rate, but I think Beemer is right. Republicans simply don't care. They all know Walker is a complete idiot and in no way qualified to be a senator, but they'll vote for him because of the R next to his name. They know Oz could give one fuck about the people of Pennsylvania, but want that seat. Masters is an idiot....but Arizonans?!? GOP will win the Senate.

For that matter Walker isn't leading yet either... nor is masters.... So they are just gonna magically wake up on Tuesday and win?
We have evidence of NARROWING... none of the three have LEADS anywhere. Its a H*** leap to figure they'll just win.

Just my feeling.

I get it… but all I’m saying is I want to see some evidence too… I could have been sold on Trump winning MICHIGAN last time based on yard signs and things. I could be sold on a GOP wave this time too based on the same. I get the “it’s a wash” feeling though honestly.

[Bryce]

Polls are crap.

1. PRRI/Brookings Poll released on October 19. 2016: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 15 points

2. NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll released on October 10: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 14 points

3. AP Poll released on October 26: Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by 14 points

I'd put more credence in BMW's opinion than pretty much any poll.