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2022 Midterm Polling Thread

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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Rate This » Sun Sep 25, 2022 5:40 pm

bmw wrote:
Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:34 am
The latest ABC News/Washington Post set of polls is interesting:

39 Biden Approval
+5 Republicans generic
+2 Trump over Biden in general
Either an outlier or a leading indicator. I’m not really sure what to think without more data. The other generics have only moved into a more or less tie situation.



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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by bmw » Sun Sep 25, 2022 5:52 pm

Rate This wrote:
Sun Sep 25, 2022 5:40 pm
bmw wrote:
Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:34 am
The latest ABC News/Washington Post set of polls is interesting:

39 Biden Approval
+5 Republicans generic
+2 Trump over Biden in general
Either an outlier or a leading indicator. I’m not really sure what to think without more data. The other generics have only moved into a more or less tie situation.
My guess is a little bit of both. I think there has been a tiny bit of movement back in the Republicans' favor over the past few weeks, but not as much as suggested by this poll set. Realistically, I think Biden's approval rating sits around 43, Dems lead by 1-2 points in the generic, and the Trump v. Biden matchup doesn't mean much until if/when both decide they're actually running in 2024.



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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Rate This » Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:24 pm

bmw wrote:
Sun Sep 25, 2022 5:52 pm
Rate This wrote:
Sun Sep 25, 2022 5:40 pm
bmw wrote:
Sun Sep 25, 2022 10:34 am
The latest ABC News/Washington Post set of polls is interesting:

39 Biden Approval
+5 Republicans generic
+2 Trump over Biden in general
Either an outlier or a leading indicator. I’m not really sure what to think without more data. The other generics have only moved into a more or less tie situation.
My guess is a little bit of both. I think there has been a tiny bit of movement back in the Republicans' favor over the past few weeks, but not as much as suggested by this poll set. Realistically, I think Biden's approval rating sits around 43, Dems lead by 1-2 points in the generic, and the Trump v. Biden matchup doesn't mean much until if/when both decide they're actually running in 2024.
I’m reminded of the saying “a week is a lifetime in politics”… we have many a lifetime between now and then. I suppose the 2024 polls they are taking now are more entertaining than anything. I basically agree with your assessment by the way.



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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Rate This » Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:38 pm

September 25

CBS News Battleground Tracker
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 46
Democrats 45

ABC News / Washington Post
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 51 Democrats 46

2024 General Election:
Trump 48
BIden 46

I wonder how much the polling models have been adjusted in the wake of Dobbs? Democrats have been over performing in special elections in the wake of the decision relative to the way they went in 2020. If someone was weighting for lower turnout for the Democrats and higher turnout for the Republicans (as is typical for the party in power's supporters in a midterm) that might make things kinda wacky. I've had the feeling for a few weeks that the polling isn't matching the mood very well.



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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Rate This » Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:57 pm

September 26

WTXF-TV Philadelphia / Insider Advantage
Pennsylvania Senate:
John Fetterman (D) 45
Mehmet Oz (R) 42

Pennsylvania Governor:
Josh Shapiro (D) 52
Doug Mastriano (R) 37

Spectrum News / Siena
Ohio Senate:
Tim Ryan (D) 46
J.D. Vance (R) 43

Ohio Governor:
Mike DeWine (R) 55
Nan Whaley (D) 32

Trafalgar Group
Washington Senate:
Patty Murray (D) 49
Tiffany Smiley (R) 47

KHOU-TV Houston / TXHPF
Texas Governor:
Greg Abbott (R) 53
Beto O'Rourke (D) 43

KOCO-TV Oklahoma City
Oklahoma Governor:
Kevin Stitt (R) 47
Joy Hofmeister (D) 44


September 27

Arizona Republic / Suffolk
Arizona Senate:
Mark Kelly (D) 49
Blake Masters (R) 42

Arizona Governor:
Katie Hobbs (D) 46
Kari Lake (R) 45

Marist
Pennsylvania Senate:
John Fetterman (D) 51
Mehmet Oz (R) 44

Pennsylvania Governor:
Josh Shapiro (D) 54
Doug Mastriano (R) 42

The Hill / Emerson
Texas Governor:
Greg Abbott (R) 50
Beto O'Rourke (D) 42

Texas 2024:
Trump 49
Biden 40

UNH
Maine Governor:
Janet Mills (D) 53
Paul LePage (R) 39



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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by MotorCityRadioFreak » Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:57 pm

I would be interested to know the numbers for Ken Paxton(Texas attorney general) who tried to send refugees to Michigan.


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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Rate This » Thu Sep 29, 2022 10:06 pm

MotorCityRadioFreak wrote:
Wed Sep 28, 2022 10:57 pm
I would be interested to know the numbers for Ken Paxton(Texas attorney general) who tried to send refugees to Michigan.
He leads 47-42 with 8% undecided according to the latest poll. This is the same poll that had Beto down 51-44 and only 3% undecided.

September 28

FOX News
Georgia Senate:
Raphael Warnock (D) 47
Herschel Walker (R) 43

Georgia Governor:
Brian Kemp (R) 51
Stacey Abrams (D) 44

Pennsylvania Senate:
John Fetterman (D) 48
Mehmet Oz (R) 44

Pennsylvania Governor:
Josh Shapiro (D) 53
Doug Mastriano (R) 42

Marist
Arizona Senate:
Mark Kelly (D) 50
Blake Masters (R) 45

Arizona Governor:
Kari Lake (R) 49
Katie Hobbs (D) 46

PPP
Wisconsin Senate:
Mandela Barnes (D) 47
Ron Johnson (R) 47

Wisconsin Governor:
Tony Evers (D) 48
Tim Michels (R) 46

Washington Senate:
Patty Murray (D) 52
Tiffany Smiley (R) 40

The Oregonian / DHM
Oregon Governor:
Christine Drazan (R) 32
Tina Kotek (D) 31
Betsy Johnson (I) 18

Trafalgar Group
Colorado Senate:
Michael Bennett (D) 49
Joe O'Dea (R) 43

Colorado Governor:
Jared Polis (D) 49
Heidi Gahnal (R) 41

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 51
Democrats 46

Quinnipiac
Texas Governor:
Greg Abbott (R) 53
Beto O'Rourke (D) 46

Siena
New York Senate:
Chuck Schumer (D) 55
Joe Pinion (R) 36

New York Governor:
Kathy Hochul (D) 54
Lee Zeldin (R) 37

WGN-TV Chicago / Emerson
Illinois Senate:
Tammy Duckworth (D) 50
Kathy Salvi (R) 31

Illinois Governor:
J.B. Pritzker (D) 51
Darren Bailey (R) 36

2024 Illinois General Election:
Biden 51
Trump 38

Economist / YouGov
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 47
Democrats 46

Grinnell / Selzer
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 46
Republicans 42

Politico / Morning Consult
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 45
Republicans 43

September 29

FOX News
Arizona Senate:
Mark Kelly (D) 47
Blake Masters (R) 42

Arizona Governor:
Kari Lake (R) 46
Katie Hobbs (D) 45

Wisconsin Senate:
Ron Johnson (R) 50
Mandela Barnes (D) 45

Wisconsin Governor:
Tim Michels (R) 49
Tony Evers (D) 47

Fabrizio / Anzalone
Wisconsin Senate:
Ron Johnson (R) 51
Mandela Barnes (D) 46

Wisconsin Governor:
Tim Michels (R) 50
Tony Evers (D) 47

Franklin & Marshall
Pennsylvania Senate:
John Fetterman (D) 47
Mehmet Oz (R) 43

Pennsylvania Governor:
Josh Shapiro (D) 52
Doug Mastriano (R) 42

Civitas / Cygnal
North Carolina Senate:
Cheri Beasley (D) 44
Ted Budd (R) 44

Boston Globe / Suffolk
New Hampshire Senate:
Maggie Hassan (D) 50
Don Bolduc (R) 41

New Hampshire Governor:
Chris Sununu (R) 53
Tom Sherman (D) 36

Clout Research
Oregon Governor:
Christine Drazan (R) 39
Tina Kotek (D) 35
Betsy Johnson (I) 16

Susquehanna
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 44
Democrats 43



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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Rate This » Wed Oct 05, 2022 8:30 pm

September 30

Michigan News Source / Trafalgar
Michigan Governor:
Gretchen Whitmer (D) 51
Tudor Dixon (R) 45

The Hill / Emerson
Pennsylvania Senate:
John Fetterman (D) 45
Mehmet Oz (R) 43

Pennsylvania Governor:
Josh Shapiro (D) 51
Doug Mastriano (R) 41

Pennsylvania 2024:
Trump 46
Biden 45

Missouri Senate:
Eric Schmitt (R) 49
Trudi Busch-Valentine (D) 38

Missouri 2024:
Trump 51
Biden 37

Data For Progress
Wisconsin Senate:
Ron Johnson (R) 50
Mandela Barnes (D) 48

Wisconsin Governor:
Tim Michels (R) 48
Tony Evers (D) 47

WFSB-TV / CT Insider
Connecticut Senate:
Richard Blumenthal (D) 53
Leora Levy (R) 40

Connecticut Governor:
Ned Lamont (D) 55
Bob Stefanowski (R) 40

Rasmussen Reports
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 45
Democrats 44

October 1

Washington Post / University of Maryland
Wes Moore (D) 60
Dan Cox (R) 28

October 2

Nevada Independent
Nevada Senate:
Adam Laxalt (R) 45
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 43

Nevada Governor:
Joe Lombardo (R) 45
Steve Sisolak (D) 42

October 3

Spectrum News / Siena
Florida Senate:
Marco Rubio (R) 48
Val Demings (D) 41

Florida Governor:
Ron DeSantis (R) 49
Charlie Crist (D) 41

Monmouth
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 47
Democrats 45

October 4

WDIV-TV / Detroit News
Michigan Governor:
Gretchen Whitmer (D) 50
Tudor Dixon (R) 32

Mason-Dixon
Florida Senate:
Marco Rubio (R) 47
Val Demings (D) 41

USA Today / Suffolk
Pennsylvania Senate:
John Fetterman (D) 46
Mehmet Oz (R) 40

Pennsylvania Governor:
Josh Shapiro (D) 48
Doug Mastriano (R) 37

WRAL-TV Raleigh, NC / Survey USA
North Carolina Senate:
Ted Budd (R) 43
Cheri Beasley (D) 42

North Carolina 2024:
Biden 45
Trump 43

Emerson
Oregon Senate:
Ron Wyden (D) 51
Jo Rae Perkins (R) 32

Oregon Governor:
Christine Drazen (R) 36
Tina Kotek (D) 34
Betsy Johnson (I) 19

Oregon 2024:
Biden 50
Trump 41

Washington Senate:
Patty Murray (D) 51
Tiffany Smiley (R) 42

Washington 2024:
Biden 49
Trump 39

Trafalgar Group
New Hampshire Senate:
Maggie Hassan (D) 48
Don Bolduc (R) 45

Data For Progress
New Hampshire Senate:
Maggie Hassan (D) 50
Don Bolduc (R) 43

Berkeley IGS / LA Times
California Governor:
Gavin Newsom (D) 53
Brian Dahle (R) 32

News Nation
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 45
Republicans 44

Insider Advantage
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 47
Democrats 44

October 5

Mason-Dixon
Florida Governor:
Ron DeSantis (R) 52
Charlie Crist (D) 41

FOX 5 Atlanta / Insider Advantage
Georgia Senate:
Raphael Warnock (D) 47
Herschel Walker (R) 44

Georgia Governor:
Brian Kemp (R) 50
Stacey Abrams (D) 45

WXIA-TV / Survey USA
Georgia Senate:
Raphael Warnock (D) 50
Herschel Walker (R) 38

Georgia Governor:
Brian Kemp (R) 47
Stacey Abrams (D) 45

CBS News / YouGov
Arizona Senate:
Mark Kelly (D) 51
Blake Masters (R) 48

Arizona Governor:
Katie Hobbs (D) 49
Kari Lake (R) 49

St. Anselm College
New Hampshire Senate:
Maggie Hassan (D) 49
Don Bolduc (R) 43

New Hampshire Governor:
Chris Sununu (R) 50
Tom Sherman (D) 34

WCAX-TV / UNH
Vermont Governor:
Phil Scott (R) 48
Brenda Siegel (D) 31

Economist / YouGov
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 47
Republicans 46

Politico / Morning Consult
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 46
Republicans 43



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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Rate This » Thu Oct 06, 2022 8:07 pm

October 6

CNN
Nevada Senate:
Adam Laxalt (R) 48
Catherine Cortez Masto (D) 46

Nevada Governor:
Joe Lombardo (R) 48
Steve Sisolak (D) 46

Arizona Senate:
Mark Kelly (D) 51
Blake Masters (R) 45

Arizona Governor:
Katie Hobbs (D) 49
Kari Lake (R) 46

KSTP / Survey USA
Minnesota Governor:
Tim Walz (D) 50
Scott Jensen (R) 40

Trafalgar Group
New York Governor:
Kathy Hochul (D) 45
Lee Zeldin (R) 43

NPR / Marist
Generic Congressional Ballot:
Democrats 48
Republicans 45



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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by TC Talks » Thu Oct 06, 2022 8:46 pm

As much as I want a democrate win, the Republicans often get a bump from the deplorables that don't respond to polls...


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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Rate This » Thu Oct 06, 2022 9:01 pm

TC Talks wrote:
Thu Oct 06, 2022 8:46 pm
As much as I want a democrate win, the Republicans often get a bump from the deplorables that don't respond to polls...
That was more true for years Trump was directly on the ballot. That effect is to be determined this time around.



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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Rate This » Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:48 pm

There's a bit of an upset possibly brewing in the Oklahoma Governors race... The Democrat is up 4 and its a poll from a group that knows how to poll Oklahoma. If she can pull it off that would seem to portend a pretty good night for Democrats in places that aren't beet red like Oklahoma. I put a link to it at the bottom.

October 7

Emerson
Iowa Senate:
Chuck Grassley (R) 49
Michael Franken (D) 38

Iowa Governor:
Kim Reynolds (R) 53
Deidre DeJear (D) 38

Iowa 2024:
Trump 47
Biden 39

Data For Progress
Colorado Senate:
Michael Bennett (D) 50
Joe O'Dea (R) 41

Colorado Governor:
Jared Polis (D) 56
Heidi Ganahl (R) 39

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 47
Democrats 45

WPRI / Roger Williams
Rhode Island Governor:
Dan McKee (D) 45
Ashley Kalus (R) 32

Rhode Island 2024:
Biden 49
Trump 32


October 8
'
Sooner Poll
Oklahoma Governor:
Joy Hofmeister (D) 47
Kevin Stitt (R) 43
https://www.news9.com/story/6340eab1ddf ... m-election



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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Matt » Sat Oct 08, 2022 8:20 pm

Rate This wrote:
Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:48 pm
There's a bit of an upset possibly brewing in the Oklahoma Governors race... The Democrat is up 4 and its a poll from a group that knows how to poll Oklahoma. If she can pull it off that would seem to portend a pretty good night for Democrats in places that aren't beet red like Oklahoma. I put a link to it at the bottom.

October 7

Emerson
Iowa Senate:
Chuck Grassley (R) 49
Michael Franken (D) 38

Iowa Governor:
Kim Reynolds (R) 53
Deidre DeJear (D) 38

Iowa 2024:
Trump 47
Biden 39

Data For Progress
Colorado Senate:
Michael Bennett (D) 50
Joe O'Dea (R) 41

Colorado Governor:
Jared Polis (D) 56
Heidi Ganahl (R) 39

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 47
Democrats 45

WPRI / Roger Williams
Rhode Island Governor:
Dan McKee (D) 45
Ashley Kalus (R) 32

Rhode Island 2024:
Biden 49
Trump 32


October 8
'
Sooner Poll
Oklahoma Governor:
Joy Hofmeister (D) 47
Kevin Stitt (R) 43
https://www.news9.com/story/6340eab1ddf ... m-election
Actually, Oklahoma pretty regularly switches parties in gubernatorial elections, so that race won't be particularly telling.


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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by Rate This » Sat Oct 08, 2022 8:33 pm

Matt wrote:
Sat Oct 08, 2022 8:20 pm
Rate This wrote:
Sat Oct 08, 2022 7:48 pm
There's a bit of an upset possibly brewing in the Oklahoma Governors race... The Democrat is up 4 and its a poll from a group that knows how to poll Oklahoma. If she can pull it off that would seem to portend a pretty good night for Democrats in places that aren't beet red like Oklahoma. I put a link to it at the bottom.

October 7

Emerson
Iowa Senate:
Chuck Grassley (R) 49
Michael Franken (D) 38

Iowa Governor:
Kim Reynolds (R) 53
Deidre DeJear (D) 38

Iowa 2024:
Trump 47
Biden 39

Data For Progress
Colorado Senate:
Michael Bennett (D) 50
Joe O'Dea (R) 41

Colorado Governor:
Jared Polis (D) 56
Heidi Ganahl (R) 39

Generic Congressional Ballot:
Republicans 47
Democrats 45

WPRI / Roger Williams
Rhode Island Governor:
Dan McKee (D) 45
Ashley Kalus (R) 32

Rhode Island 2024:
Biden 49
Trump 32


October 8
'
Sooner Poll
Oklahoma Governor:
Joy Hofmeister (D) 47
Kevin Stitt (R) 43
https://www.news9.com/story/6340eab1ddf ... m-election
Actually, Oklahoma pretty regularly switches parties in gubernatorial elections, so that race won't be particularly telling.
The office has been Republican since 2011 and occupied by a Republican for 19 of the last 27 years beginning with the 1994 midterm. They had a Democrat there from 2003-2011. But it does not appear to currently “regularly switch parties”. There WAS a time they did that… 1963 to 1994 when the state was transitioning from blue to red. From 2011 to 2019 they had 8 years of Mary Fallin and followed that up with Kevin Stitt who is seeking a second term. Folks who rated it earlier this year believed Stitt to be a slam dunk to win.

You may be thinking of Kansas… they definitely DO switch parties regularly.



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Re: 2022 Midterm Polling Thread

Post by MotorCityRadioFreak » Sat Oct 08, 2022 9:12 pm

Damn. The Iowa farmers are pissed.


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