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To victims of high gas prices...

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TC Talks
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Re: To victims of high gas prices...

Post by TC Talks » Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:40 pm

Matt wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:03 pm
TC Talks wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:58 pm
Matt wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:00 pm
Not sure if TCT is as delusional as he sounds or if this is a trolling fail.

The strategic petroleum reserve is for actual supply issues, not for trying to offset the disastrous impact of your energy policies.
Enlighten me, what part of his policy has created the petroleum refineries to lower production while crude prices have stayed mostly stable?
From today's WSJ editorial on the matter:
For a decade the U.S. was the world’s swing oil producer. But U.S. drillers have retreated amid a regulatory assault from Washington, pressure from progressive investors, and challenges obtaining capital. Some say they are also struggling to find workers. Output is set to hit a record in the Permian Basin, where the break-even costs are low and new production doesn’t require long-term investment.

But U.S. production is still about 1.7 million barrels per day below its pre-pandemic peak and has been declining in other oil fields such as the Bakken Shale, where a shortage of pipeline capacity has raised costs. The Democrats’ multi-trillion-dollar spending bill is chock-full of fees that would make U.S. producers less globally competitive.

Meantime, the Biden Administration last week asked the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals to reverse a lower judge’s injunction on its ban on oil and gas leases on federal land. All of these policies discourage investment in future production, which means supply shortages and high gas prices may not be as temporary as the Administration claims.
So worker shortage? I seem to recall Donald Trump made a point of signing each of those stimulus checks. Difficulty accessing capital? Isn't that the bank industry and didn't Biden push to keep moderate fed policy in place this week? This article conveniently skips the fact that almost all us crude is exported and thus does not have much impact on gasoline prices in the United States. Biden has even considered blocking domestic producers from exporting their oil and driving the prices back to what they should be. I think it's a little too complex to pin it on just the regulation but we know how conservative victims like to complain. And complaining about fees that might happen is not a reason for lowered production.


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Re: To victims of high gas prices...

Post by MotorCityRadioFreak » Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:52 am

Honeyman wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:17 pm
Love my Chevy Volt. Honestly haven't been to the gas station since we took a road trip in July.

Next vehicle will be an all electric SUV....open to opinions.
I am all about being green, but what change did you notice in your electric bill?


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Re: To victims of high gas prices...

Post by Matt » Wed Nov 24, 2021 5:43 am

TC Talks wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 9:40 pm
Matt wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:03 pm
TC Talks wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:58 pm
Matt wrote:
Tue Nov 23, 2021 7:00 pm
Not sure if TCT is as delusional as he sounds or if this is a trolling fail.

The strategic petroleum reserve is for actual supply issues, not for trying to offset the disastrous impact of your energy policies.
Enlighten me, what part of his policy has created the petroleum refineries to lower production while crude prices have stayed mostly stable?
From today's WSJ editorial on the matter:
For a decade the U.S. was the world’s swing oil producer. But U.S. drillers have retreated amid a regulatory assault from Washington, pressure from progressive investors, and challenges obtaining capital. Some say they are also struggling to find workers. Output is set to hit a record in the Permian Basin, where the break-even costs are low and new production doesn’t require long-term investment.

But U.S. production is still about 1.7 million barrels per day below its pre-pandemic peak and has been declining in other oil fields such as the Bakken Shale, where a shortage of pipeline capacity has raised costs. The Democrats’ multi-trillion-dollar spending bill is chock-full of fees that would make U.S. producers less globally competitive.

Meantime, the Biden Administration last week asked the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals to reverse a lower judge’s injunction on its ban on oil and gas leases on federal land. All of these policies discourage investment in future production, which means supply shortages and high gas prices may not be as temporary as the Administration claims.
So worker shortage? I seem to recall Donald Trump made a point of signing each of those stimulus checks. Difficulty accessing capital? Isn't that the bank industry and didn't Biden push to keep moderate fed policy in place this week? This article conveniently skips the fact that almost all us crude is exported and thus does not have much impact on gasoline prices in the United States. Biden has even considered blocking domestic producers from exporting their oil and driving the prices back to what they should be. I think it's a little too complex to pin it on just the regulation but we know how conservative victims like to complain. And complaining about fees that might happen is not a reason for lowered production.
Biden's policies have contributed to the steep climb in gas prices this year. How anyone can deny that is beyond me. Policies that discourage domestic production are going to cause supply issues. Calling people victims for being pissed at higher gas prices that are helping drive inflation makes you sound like an elitist douchebag.


What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

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MWmetalhead
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Re: To victims of high gas prices...

Post by MWmetalhead » Wed Nov 24, 2021 6:13 am

I've explained before why oil production is down and prices are up. It's not cancellation of Keystone (I do agree cancelling Keystone will have negative long-term implications) or restrictions of drilling on certain federal lands. There are PLENTY of proven oil reserves on existing leased lands that have not yet been extracted.

The supply crunch is because oil E&P companies rolled back capital expenditures and in many cases suspended all new drilling and in some cases even workovers of existing wells in response to tightened lending standards. These actions were taken to ensure sufficient liquidity could be retained to fund normal course working capital swings and unexpected circumstances. Lending standards were tightened in the wake of the epic price crash of spring 2020.

In some cases, E&P companies incurred what is known as a Borrowing Base Deficiency, which meant sizable principal pay downs had to be made to Lenders using cash on hand or using near-term cash flow. A semi-decent analogy would be a home mortgage where you borrowed $275,000 based on an initial appraised value of $325,000 but then your home value drops to $250,000, and as a result you cannot take out a home equity loan. Oil & gas companies who borrow from banks generally are required to undergo semi-annual appraisal of their proven reserves. When the risk weighted value of those reserves drops below the then-outstanding loan balance, banks usually require the company to pay back the difference within six months' time.

How do I know the above? I've underwritten loan commitments to probably 30 different oil & gas exploration and production companies over the past six years.

Lending restrictions have begun to loosen with the Fall 2021 borrowing base redetermination season. Equity capital is also beginning to flow into these companies in a major way. Look for increased drilling activity in 2022. This will help to ease prices next year, especially the second half of the year.

So, that excerpt Matt provided from the WSJ is only partially correct. Yes, oil field labor retention could be a problem as well. I certainly would not expect the dopey mainstream media to understand the key tenets of oil & gas company finance, but I had much higher expectations for the WSJ.

The release from the strategic oil reserve is political window dressing. It will cause a very minor decrease in prices at best. The amount of oil released is equivalent to just over 2 days' supply. I liken it to the $300 tax rebate checks the George W. Bush administration once issued as a means of economic stimulus.



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Re: To victims of high gas prices...

Post by FakeAndyStuart » Wed Nov 24, 2021 8:29 am

Presidents get blamed for everything.. no matter what the actual reasons or causes.

To his credit, President Trump was a master at PR making sure that along with the blame, he got as much credit as possible for the good things that happened while he was in office. President Biden, a better actual President (in my eyes, your mileage may vary) but horrible at getting and keeping people's attention. He just might lose in 2024 because of that lack of skill.

But who's the current national politician who has the most favorable poll numbers, is the best at garnering media attention, and just might motivate a Democratic base to show up at the polls? Secretary/Mayor/New Dad Pete (Come to think of it, he might also motivate some of the Republican base to show up and vote against him..)



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TC Talks
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Re: To victims of high gas prices...

Post by TC Talks » Wed Nov 24, 2021 1:04 pm

Forgive me MW but anyone that needs access to Capital in this segment tends to be new to the market and aren't the established producers.

My two friends Craig and Wayne in Traverse City suggests that they can't get oil processed at this point.


“The more you can increase fear of drugs, crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.”
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Ben Zonia
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Re: To victims of high gas prices...

Post by Ben Zonia » Wed Nov 24, 2021 2:44 pm

I'm waiting for them to tell us to "Get A Horse", like in the early days of automobiles.


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Rate This
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Re: To victims of high gas prices...

Post by Rate This » Wed Nov 24, 2021 10:04 pm

MWmetalhead wrote:
Wed Nov 24, 2021 6:13 am
I've explained before why oil production is down and prices are up. It's not cancellation of Keystone (I do agree cancelling Keystone will have negative long-term implications) or restrictions of drilling on certain federal lands. There are PLENTY of proven oil reserves on existing leased lands that have not yet been extracted.

The supply crunch is because oil E&P companies rolled back capital expenditures and in many cases suspended all new drilling and in some cases even workovers of existing wells in response to tightened lending standards. These actions were taken to ensure sufficient liquidity could be retained to fund normal course working capital swings and unexpected circumstances. Lending standards were tightened in the wake of the epic price crash of spring 2020.

In some cases, E&P companies incurred what is known as a Borrowing Base Deficiency, which meant sizable principal pay downs had to be made to Lenders using cash on hand or using near-term cash flow. A semi-decent analogy would be a home mortgage where you borrowed $275,000 based on an initial appraised value of $325,000 but then your home value drops to $250,000, and as a result you cannot take out a home equity loan. Oil & gas companies who borrow from banks generally are required to undergo semi-annual appraisal of their proven reserves. When the risk weighted value of those reserves drops below the then-outstanding loan balance, banks usually require the company to pay back the difference within six months' time.

How do I know the above? I've underwritten loan commitments to probably 30 different oil & gas exploration and production companies over the past six years.

Lending restrictions have begun to loosen with the Fall 2021 borrowing base redetermination season. Equity capital is also beginning to flow into these companies in a major way. Look for increased drilling activity in 2022. This will help to ease prices next year, especially the second half of the year.

So, that excerpt Matt provided from the WSJ is only partially correct. Yes, oil field labor retention could be a problem as well. I certainly would not expect the dopey mainstream media to understand the key tenets of oil & gas company finance, but I had much higher expectations for the WSJ.

The release from the strategic oil reserve is political window dressing. It will cause a very minor decrease in prices at best. The amount of oil released is equivalent to just over 2 days' supply. I liken it to the $300 tax rebate checks the George W. Bush administration once issued as a means of economic stimulus.
As I recall there was also some sort of agreement with the Gulf (Arab) states to have them lower their output. A large portion of this is decreased demand, resulting decreased production and then a rise in demand with supply unable to keep up. That’s what I’ve gathered from it. Biden isn’t the problem. Cancelling a pipeline that didn’t exist didn’t send prices up from their pandemic lows. Good old supply and demand did.



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TC Talks
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Re: To victims of high gas prices...

Post by TC Talks » Fri Nov 26, 2021 7:20 pm

So we have a new variant which began in South Africa where vaccination rates are 25%. So basically the stock market drops, oil prices drop, the economy isn't stable because people didn't get vaccinated.

How can we blame this on the President? I bet we can if we try.
Futures of West Texas Intermediate oil, the U.S. crude benchmark, plummeted more than 13 percent to $68.04 a barrel, the lowest since early September. The price of oil has been especially sensitive to virus restrictions that keep people at home. The drop comes just three days after the United States and five other countries announced a coordinated effort to tap into their national oil stockpiles, to try to drive down rising gas prices.

Brent futures, the European benchmark, fell 11 percent to about $73 a barrel. But Mr. Ganesh said UBS forecasts that the price will rise to $90 a barrel by March, partly in the expectation that the fears about new virus restrictions will be temporary.


“The more you can increase fear of drugs, crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.”
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Re: To victims of high gas prices...

Post by Matt » Sat Nov 27, 2021 8:30 am

TC Talks wrote:
Fri Nov 26, 2021 7:20 pm
So we have a new variant which began in South Africa where vaccination rates are 25%. So basically the stock market drops, oil prices drop, the economy isn't stable because people didn't get vaccinated.

How can we blame this on the President? I bet we can if we try.
Futures of West Texas Intermediate oil, the U.S. crude benchmark, plummeted more than 13 percent to $68.04 a barrel, the lowest since early September. The price of oil has been especially sensitive to virus restrictions that keep people at home. The drop comes just three days after the United States and five other countries announced a coordinated effort to tap into their national oil stockpiles, to try to drive down rising gas prices.

Brent futures, the European benchmark, fell 11 percent to about $73 a barrel. But Mr. Ganesh said UBS forecasts that the price will rise to $90 a barrel by March, partly in the expectation that the fears about new virus restrictions will be temporary.
But BMW said vaccinations are causing the variants.


What's more pathetic: harassing an old man who is paying to do a radio show or supporting a grifter like Trump?

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Ben Zonia
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Re: To victims of high gas prices...

Post by Ben Zonia » Sat Nov 27, 2021 10:09 am

But BMW said vaccinations are causing the variants.
Seriously folks, have you never heard of antibiotic resistance and Penicillin Selection? For years, they demonized the use of antibiotics until someone had a full blown Staph or Strep infection and 102 degree fever, and with people with compromised immune systems, requiring hospitalizations. You used to see Billboards about antibiotic abuse by doctors writing prescriptions for them. Penicillin Selection was an early method of producing bacterial mutants/variants that were resistant, to study new antibiotics, hopefully NOT for germ warfare.

And the same thing happens with antivirals and vaccines, but there is a strong legitimate suspicion that this is being used for Biological Warfare in increasing "sophistication", deliberately created, and "accidentally" or deliberately released. Like Werner von Braun, some researchers will work for anybody. Why is THAT such a foreign concept to you?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QEJ9HrZq7Ro


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TC Talks
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Re: To victims of high gas prices...

Post by TC Talks » Sun Nov 28, 2021 6:42 am

Do you know how many people would have died of polio without penicillin?

The issues created by vaccination resistance is a glimpse of what would happen if there was no vaccination at all.


“The more you can increase fear of drugs, crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.”
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MWmetalhead
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Re: To victims of high gas prices...

Post by MWmetalhead » Sun Nov 28, 2021 7:14 am

Forgive me MW but anyone that needs access to Capital in this segment tends to be new to the market and aren't the established producers.
Re-read what I wrote earlier regarding Borrowing Base Deficiencies.

Also re-read what I wrote regarding companies suspending new drilling and suspending well workovers in response to 2020's horrible market conditions (which predominantly occurred in Q2 & Q3).

There are plenty of oil & gas producers who rely on reserve-based lending lines of credit to fund a substantial portion of reserve acquisition & exploitation - both new and established. Bear in mind some companies that may appear "new" are actually renamed entities that went through a Chapter 11 reorganization within the past five years.

Banks were still playing it very conservatively during the spring 2021 borrowing base redetermination season. They were still concerned about 2020's price volatility and "unknowns" regarding how the pandemic may squeeze the macroeconomy going forward.



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TC Talks
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Re: To victims of high gas prices...

Post by TC Talks » Sun Nov 28, 2021 7:20 pm

But access to crude is not our problem it still remains a processing refining problem.

My buddy Bobby down in Lubbock said they are refining as fast as they can but that many refineries are in "maintenance" aka profit taking mode.

And I will remind you again that much of the oil in the US is getting exported which doesn't help gas prices.


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Re: To victims of high gas prices...

Post by audiophile » Sun Nov 28, 2021 7:38 pm

Is the sour oil being exported?


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