Re: Multiple reports: Lions to seek to trade Stafford in the offseason
Posted: Thu Jan 28, 2021 8:29 am
Michigan Radio & TV Buzzboard
https://mibuzzboard.com:443/phpBB3/
Multiple reports: Lions to seek to trade Stafford in the offseason
https://mibuzzboard.com:443/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?f=21&t=56648
Page 3 of 3
Re: Multiple reports: Lions to seek to trade Stafford in the offseason
Posted: Thu Jan 28, 2021 9:13 am
I am sure it will be. The Lions are still cursed until the Fords sell.
Re: Multiple reports: Lions to seek to trade Stafford in the offseason
Posted: Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:20 am
I think what Matt is saying is that a Stafford trade could set the Lions up in great shape for years to come, as the Walker trade did for Dallas. Y'think? 
Re: Multiple reports: Lions to seek to trade Stafford in the offseason
Posted: Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:22 pm
Absolutely... therefore they will find a way to blow it...moldyoldie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:20 amI think what Matt is saying is that a Stafford trade could set the Lions up in great shape for years to come, as the Walker trade did for Dallas. Y'think?
Re: Multiple reports: Lions to seek to trade Stafford in the offseason
Posted: Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:28 pm
If you say so...moldyoldie wrote: ↑Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:20 amI think what Matt is saying is that a Stafford trade could set the Lions up in great shape for years to come, as the Walker trade did for Dallas. Y'think?
Hope you're well.Re: Multiple reports: Lions to seek to trade Stafford in the offseason
Posted: Fri Jan 29, 2021 8:49 am
While I appreciate your calculating the various odds, it sounds much like the Tampa Bay Rays taking Blake Snell out of the game in the sixth inning of Game 7 of the World Series after yielding only two hits and striking out nine. Ya gotta have some faith and confidence in your team, statistics and advanced analytics be damned! The strength of your team resides in your veteran QB who probably wants the win more than you as the coach. Considering the time remaining and all of your precise calculations, kicking the field goal in that situation simply adds layer upon layer of added improbabilities needed to win.bmw wrote: ↑Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:20 amI watched this live, and I agreed with the decision to kick the FG as I did some quick math in my head at the time and I don't think going for it was the statistical no-brainer you make it out to be. Now the breakdown:
First off, the situation was 4th and goal at the 8. Statistically, that has a 30 percent conversion rate.
Then, they would have needed a 2-point conversion for the tie. Those come in at just under 50%. Let's call it 48%.
Then let's put their odds of an OT victory at 55% (I'm being generous here as they were the home team and the slight favorites).
Already, just multiplying those 3 numbers out, they would be at 7.9% to win the game. But even that ignores the odds of the Bucs, even if GB scores a TD and converts a 2-pointer, using the last 2:05 to come down and score to win the game. Those odds clock in at 35%
So the final math is 0.30 x 0.48 x 0.65 x 0.55, or 5.1 percent to win the game if they had gone for it. That number is actually slightly higher since they could theoretically have gone for it, not got it, stopped TB to get the ball back and go through that whole process all over again, bringing that final number to around 5.3 percent overall chance of winnning.
Now let's analyze what they actually did - kicked a field goal. Their odds of making that field goal at that distance was around 97 percent. Then down only 5, you no longer need the 2-point conversion or the overtime to win. You simply need a stop and then a TD.
Let's say they get the stop and get the ball back at their own 25. Their odds of winning from that point would have been 24 percent. See here:
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/ ... s_to_go=10
Even if they gave up a first down, they could have still gotten the ball back, albeit with less time.
Given ALL OF THAT MATH (yeah, I know, long-winded), the only remaining question is, what are the odds they would have gotten the stop (which they obviously didn't get, but that's hindsight, all that is relevant is the odds at FG decision time) ? We're basically comparing a 5% win chance going for it on 4th and 8 down 8 with a 24 percent win chance had they gotten the stop after getting the FG. That means the break-even decision point is at a mere 20% chance of getting a stop, and if the odds were any higher than that, then kicking the FG was the right decision. This is the one stat I can't find, but my gut tells me that the statistical odds of GB holding TB to a 3-and-out in that situation were at least 20 percent, making the FG statistically the correct call.
EDIT - I missed the scenario of GB getting the TD but missing the 2, then getting a stop and coming back and kicking a FG. Don't really feel like figuring out the math on this one but that maybe pushes up odds of getting a stop needed to justify the FG to 25 or 30 percent.
Re: Multiple reports: Lions to seek to trade Stafford in the offseason
Posted: Fri Jan 29, 2021 4:22 pm
We'll all be dead by then.MotorCityRadioFreak wrote: ↑Thu Jan 28, 2021 9:13 amI am sure it will be. The Lions are still cursed until the Fords sell.
Watch Stafford kick ass on a different team this season, while the Lions end up going 0-16 again (which is probably going to be guaranteed with their new Head Jackass).
Re: Multiple reports: Lions to seek to trade Stafford in the offseason
Posted: Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:33 pm
Bonus! The LOLns are perfectly positioned to become the NFL's first-ever team to go 0-17!!
Re: Multiple reports: Lions to seek to trade Stafford in the offseason
Posted: Sat Jan 30, 2021 6:16 am
I certainly appreciate the detailed analysis that bmw offered up!
However, some of the assumptions are questionable. For example, let's take the second chart. How is it that the probability of scoring a TD or FG when the ball is between the 21 and 25 yard line at or near 100 percent? I'm sorry, but that makes no sense.
Next:
The choices for Green Bay were basically as follows:
- Go for 8 points in an effort to tie the game and risk getting 0 points or 6 points. If GB came away with 6 points, they'd still be in better shape (trailing by less than a field goal) than if they came away with 3 points (trailing by 5 points).
- Go for the FG, trail by 5 after a successful FG attempt, hope you get a Tampa Bay stop in time, and then hope you have enough time on the game clock to engineer & successfully execute a game winning touchdown.
Look, if there were, say, 3 minutes left in the game - I would've been OK with Matt LaFleur's decision. I think the game clock was the critical factor here.
However, some of the assumptions are questionable. For example, let's take the second chart. How is it that the probability of scoring a TD or FG when the ball is between the 21 and 25 yard line at or near 100 percent? I'm sorry, but that makes no sense.
Next:
The problems with the above analysis are simple - first, the limitations of the game clock and TB's likely time of possession are not factored into the analysis. Second, there was no probability analysis around the number of yards Green Bay would need to cover to score a game winning touchdown on a theoretical ensuing possession w/ a short game clock.Now let's analyze what they actually did - kicked a field goal. Their odds of making that field goal at that distance was around 97 percent. Then down only 5, you no longer need the 2-point conversion or the overtime to win. You simply need a stop and then a TD.
Let's say they get the stop and get the ball back at their own 25. Their odds of winning from that point would have been 24 percent....
The choices for Green Bay were basically as follows:
- Go for 8 points in an effort to tie the game and risk getting 0 points or 6 points. If GB came away with 6 points, they'd still be in better shape (trailing by less than a field goal) than if they came away with 3 points (trailing by 5 points).
- Go for the FG, trail by 5 after a successful FG attempt, hope you get a Tampa Bay stop in time, and then hope you have enough time on the game clock to engineer & successfully execute a game winning touchdown.
Look, if there were, say, 3 minutes left in the game - I would've been OK with Matt LaFleur's decision. I think the game clock was the critical factor here.
Re: Multiple reports: Lions to seek to trade Stafford in the offseason
Posted: Sat Jan 30, 2021 8:48 am
That's certainly how I would have played it.MWmetalhead wrote: ↑Sat Jan 30, 2021 6:16 am- Go for 8 points in an effort to tie the game and risk getting 0 points or 6 points. If GB came away with 6 points, they'd still be in better shape (trailing by less than a field goal) than if they came away with 3 points (trailing by 5 points).
Bingo!
Re: Multiple reports: Lions to seek to trade Stafford in the offseason
Posted: Sat Jan 30, 2021 12:09 pm
I'm simply suggesting it was at least a close call. Can we at least agree that Green Bay's odds were pretty low either way? Needing:
-A TD on 4th and goal from the 8
-A 2-point conversion (or then a subsequent 3-and-out from TB and a FG the other way)
-A stop of TB the other way from scoring
-A win in OT
That's a LOT of hurdles. The other route is:
-An easy FG
-A 3-and-out stop on TB
-A TD the other way (with a fresh set of downs and no PAT or OT necessary) with likely 1:30 or so left
btw - I did find somewhere (can't find it now) a Next-Gen-stat analysis of Green Bay's predicament. It found something like GB had a 9 percent chance of winning if they had gone for it and a 7 percent chance of winning by going for the FG. So that would back up your argument that they made the wrong call. But on the spot you have like half a minute to make a decision.
-A TD on 4th and goal from the 8
-A 2-point conversion (or then a subsequent 3-and-out from TB and a FG the other way)
-A stop of TB the other way from scoring
-A win in OT
That's a LOT of hurdles. The other route is:
-An easy FG
-A 3-and-out stop on TB
-A TD the other way (with a fresh set of downs and no PAT or OT necessary) with likely 1:30 or so left
btw - I did find somewhere (can't find it now) a Next-Gen-stat analysis of Green Bay's predicament. It found something like GB had a 9 percent chance of winning if they had gone for it and a 7 percent chance of winning by going for the FG. So that would back up your argument that they made the wrong call. But on the spot you have like half a minute to make a decision.
Re: Multiple reports: Lions to seek to trade Stafford in the offseason
Posted: Sat Jan 30, 2021 12:12 pm
He talked about that. He said he factored in the fact that it was outside of the 2-minute warning and that he figured they'd end up being able to use the 2-minute warning as a 4th timeout after TB's first down play.MWmetalhead wrote: ↑Sat Jan 30, 2021 6:16 amLook, if there were, say, 3 minutes left in the game - I would've been OK with Matt LaFleur's decision. I think the game clock was the critical factor here.
Re: Multiple reports: Lions to seek to trade Stafford in the offseason
Posted: Sun Jan 31, 2021 7:02 am
Certainly!Can we at least agree that Green Bay's odds were pretty low either way?
I pretty much agree with those figures.It found something like GB had a 9 percent chance of winning if they had gone for it and a 7 percent chance of winning by going for the FG.
I know you used 30 percent earlier for the conversion rate on 4th and 8, but Aaron Rodgers isn't an "average" QB. I'd use something closer 40 percent.
League average for 2 pt conversion attempts was 49.4% in 2018 and 2019. Green Bay probably overachieves in that department - so let's use 55%.
40% x 55% = 22%.
Next, we need to dilute the above figure by Tampa Bay's chances of scoring a go ahead TD or FG. Bear mind that if the Packers had "gone for it" on 4th down, the 2:00 warning might've occurred on that possession. Nonetheless, Tampa had two timeouts with which to work (if I remember correctly), and oh yeah, having Tom Brady helps, too! I'd gauge their odds at scoring a FG or TD prior to end of regulation at 35%.
Thus, (1 - 35%) x 22% = 14%.
In an OT game at home, I'd say the odds of a win are probably 60/40 in GB's favor. That gets you to roughly an 8.5 percent probability of winning if you are Green Bay.
Re: Multiple reports: Lions to seek to trade Stafford in the offseason
Posted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 11:10 am
Anyone see Final Jeopardy last night when Aaron Rogers hosted?
The field goal controversy came up.
The field goal controversy came up.
Re: Multiple reports: Lions to seek to trade Stafford in the offseason
Posted: Tue Apr 06, 2021 7:17 pm
Classic!MWmetalhead wrote: ↑Tue Apr 06, 2021 11:10 amAnyone see Final Jeopardy last night when Aaron Rogers hosted?
The field goal controversy came up.
