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COVID-19 Science discussion

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km1125
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Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by km1125 » Wed Apr 15, 2020 2:11 pm

Here's an interesting study:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20059618v1

COVID-19 outbreak at a large homeless shelter in Boston: Implications for universal testing

The circumstances of homelessness create the potential for rapid transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in this vulnerable population. Upon observing a cluster of COVID-19 cases from a single large homeless shelter in Boston, Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program conducted symptom assessments and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing for SARS-CoV-2 among all guests residing at the shelter over a 2-day period. Of 408 participants, 147 (36.0%) were PCR-positive for SARS-CoV-2. COVID-positive individuals were more likely to be male (p<0.001) but did not differ significantly from COVID-negative individuals with respect to other demographic and clinical characteristics. Cough (7.5%), shortness of breath (1.4%), and fever (0.7%) were all uncommon among COVID-positive individuals. Our findings illustrate the rapidity with which COVID-19 can be widely transmitted in a homeless shelter setting and suggest that universal PCR testing, rather than a symptom triggered approach, may be a better strategy for identifying and mitigating COVID-19 among people experiencing homelessness.



Deleted User 14896

Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by Deleted User 14896 » Wed Apr 22, 2020 9:43 am

I've been following a Flamefest on Facebook (so you know it must be true).

The gist of the "discussion" is that no matter how long we quarantine, there will still be asymptomatic people among us.

To quote one of the Facebook experts "Whether you lift the lockdown next week, next month, or wait until next year, asymptomatic people will still be out and about. One of the most interesting comments was "An asymptomatic person could self-quarantine for 3 months, and still emerge as a carrier."

Someone on Facebook refuted this last comment, calling themselves an expert virologist, and saying this can't happen, yada, yada.

So I don't know. I take little credence in anything I read on Fazebook. But I'm also no expert on the topic at hand.
What sayeth those on this thread who have a better grasp than me on this virus?



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TC Talks
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Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by TC Talks » Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:54 am

This research scientist has found a middle path that has merit...
This very well could be the right was to go.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Lze-rMYLf2E
This focus on a much smaller portion of the population would allow most of society to return to life as usual and perhaps prevent vast segments of the economy from collapsing. Healthy children could return to school and healthy adults go back to their jobs. Theaters and restaurants could reopen, though we might be wise to avoid very large social gatherings like stadium sporting events and concerts.

So long as we were protecting the truly vulnerable, a sense of calm could be restored to society. Just as important, society as a whole could develop natural herd immunity to the virus. The vast majority of people would develop mild coronavirus infections, while medical resources could focus on those who fell critically ill. Once the wider population had been exposed and, if infected, had recovered and gained natural immunity, the risk to the most vulnerable would fall dramatically.

A pivot right now from trying to protect all people to focusing on the most vulnerable remains entirely plausible. With each passing day, however, it becomes more difficult. The path we are on may well lead to uncontained viral contagion and monumental collateral damage to our society and economy. A more surgical approach is what we need.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opin ... ncing.html


“The more you can increase fear of drugs, crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.”
― Noam Chomsky

Posting Content © 2024 TC Talks Holdings LP.

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Bryce
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Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by Bryce » Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:17 am

TC Talks wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:54 am
This research scientist has found a middle path that has merit...
This very well could be the right was to go.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Lze-rMYLf2E
This focus on a much smaller portion of the population would allow most of society to return to life as usual and perhaps prevent vast segments of the economy from collapsing. Healthy children could return to school and healthy adults go back to their jobs. Theaters and restaurants could reopen, though we might be wise to avoid very large social gatherings like stadium sporting events and concerts.

So long as we were protecting the truly vulnerable, a sense of calm could be restored to society. Just as important, society as a whole could develop natural herd immunity to the virus. The vast majority of people would develop mild coronavirus infections, while medical resources could focus on those who fell critically ill. Once the wider population had been exposed and, if infected, had recovered and gained natural immunity, the risk to the most vulnerable would fall dramatically.

A pivot right now from trying to protect all people to focusing on the most vulnerable remains entirely plausible. With each passing day, however, it becomes more difficult. The path we are on may well lead to uncontained viral contagion and monumental collateral damage to our society and economy. A more surgical approach is what we need.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opin ... ncing.html
That's pretty much what I've been suggesting for weeks now.


New York and Chicago were all in with respect to their sanctuary status — until they were hit with the challenge of actually providing sanctuary. In other words, typical liberal hypocrisy.

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TC Talks
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Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by TC Talks » Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:23 am

I wonder why your President isn't working on a comprehensive plan to implement a reopening this way... Oh wait, it's because he's an imbecile who is using the pandemic to feebly try to create a political divide.


“The more you can increase fear of drugs, crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.”
― Noam Chomsky

Posting Content © 2024 TC Talks Holdings LP.

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Bryce
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Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by Bryce » Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:31 am

TC Talks wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:23 am
I wonder why your President isn't working on a comprehensive plan to implement a reopening this way... Oh wait, it's because he's an imbecile who is using the pandemic to feebly try to create a political divide.
Might it have something to do with each state having it's own governing body? You know, that whole pesky states rights thing? If he has the power to do as you suggest, I think his second step should be to eliminate sanctuary states and cities.


New York and Chicago were all in with respect to their sanctuary status — until they were hit with the challenge of actually providing sanctuary. In other words, typical liberal hypocrisy.

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Rate This
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Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by Rate This » Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:38 am

Bryce wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:31 am
TC Talks wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 8:23 am
I wonder why your President isn't working on a comprehensive plan to implement a reopening this way... Oh wait, it's because he's an imbecile who is using the pandemic to feebly try to create a political divide.
Might it have something to do with each state having it's own governing body? You know, that whole pesky states rights thing? If he has the power to do as you suggest, I think his second step should be to eliminate sanctuary states and cities.
The nightmare patchwork of orders and laws we have surrounding this and just in general makes it glaringly obvious why states rights has major downsides especially when we get to 50 states. If states had merged together and we still had 13 it might be more manageable but much of this is completely unwieldy...



km1125
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Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by km1125 » Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:29 am

Here's some interesting info.

The state is now tracking "onset of C-19 symptoms" and describe the criteria as: Coronavirus-like symptoms: This query searches visit free-text (chief complaint, triage notes, and clinical impression) for fever or chills AND cough or shortness of breath or difficulty breathing.

Looking at the charts, they show symptoms back to Jan 1. The trend is relatively flat up till about 3/11, then there's a peak that just about doubles the earlier rate on 3/25, then starts dropping off. If the first half was just really the flu, why doesn't it peak in late Jan/Early Feb and then did it instantly go to "0" as the C-19 wave started ramping up in March? Were there additional flue cases from Jan to Mar that don't show up here because they weren't included in "coronavirus-like" symptoms?

Not sure if this pic will post but if not you can go to the link and look at all the charts there.
https://www.michigan.gov/images/coronav ... 8855_7.png

Here's the link:
https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0, ... --,00.html



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TC Talks
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Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by TC Talks » Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:36 pm

The state updated the metrics this week. They have also added "Probable" cases.

As of Wednesday, we have completed 165,000 tested. It's not enough.


“The more you can increase fear of drugs, crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.”
― Noam Chomsky

Posting Content © 2024 TC Talks Holdings LP.

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audiophile
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Location: Between 88 and 108 MHz.

Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by audiophile » Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:05 pm

km1125 wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 11:29 am
Here's some interesting info.

The state is now tracking "onset of C-19 symptoms" and describe the criteria as: Coronavirus-like symptoms: This query searches visit free-text (chief complaint, triage notes, and clinical impression) for fever or chills AND cough or shortness of breath or difficulty breathing.

Looking at the charts, they show symptoms back to Jan 1. The trend is relatively flat up till about 3/11, then there's a peak that just about doubles the earlier rate on 3/25, then starts dropping off. If the first half was just really the flu, why doesn't it peak in late Jan/Early Feb and then did it instantly go to "0" as the C-19 wave started ramping up in March? Were there additional flue cases from Jan to Mar that don't show up here because they weren't included in "coronavirus-like" symptoms?

Not sure if this pic will post but if not you can go to the link and look at all the charts there.
https://www.michigan.gov/images/coronav ... 8855_7.png

Here's the link:
https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus/0, ... --,00.html

Maybe we should be asking who they voted for? j/k

I bet this mostly Biden voters that voted in primary.


Ask not what your country can do FOR you; ask what they are about to do TO YOU!!

km1125
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Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by km1125 » Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:17 pm

TC Talks wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:36 pm
The state updated the metrics this week. They have also added "Probable" cases.

As of Wednesday, we have completed 165,000 tested. It's not enough.
Still wondering why we're not testing significantly more in recent weeks that we were a month ago. We (supposedly) have many more sites testing and supplies should no longer be an issue, and we've relaxed the acceptance criteria for testing subjects. We should be testing at least twice as many now on a daily basis as we were a month ago.



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Rate This
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Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by Rate This » Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:03 pm

km1125 wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 2:17 pm
TC Talks wrote:
Thu Apr 30, 2020 12:36 pm
The state updated the metrics this week. They have also added "Probable" cases.

As of Wednesday, we have completed 165,000 tested. It's not enough.
Still wondering why we're not testing significantly more in recent weeks that we were a month ago. We (supposedly) have many more sites testing and supplies should no longer be an issue, and we've relaxed the acceptance criteria for testing subjects. We should be testing at least twice as many now on a daily basis as we were a month ago.
The state needs to be encouraging people to please get tested so we know where we stand. But they keep harping staying home instead and that is what folks are doing.



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TC Talks
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Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by TC Talks » Tue May 05, 2020 7:56 am

I heard that Bill Gates was doing this but it's pretty incredible to read about it.

https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-ga ... rus-2020-4
"Because our foundation has such deep expertise in infectious diseases, we've thought about the epidemic, we did fund some things to be more prepared, like a vaccine effort," Gates said. "Our early money can accelerate things."

Gates said the top seven vaccine candidates would be picked, and then building manufacturing capacity would be built for them. "Even though we'll end up picking at most two of them, we're going to fund factories for all seven, just so that we don't waste time in serially saying, 'OK, which vaccine works?' and then building the factory," he said.

Gates said that simultaneously testing and building manufacturing capacity is essential to the quick development of a vaccine, which Gates thinks could take about 18 months.


“The more you can increase fear of drugs, crime, welfare mothers, immigrants and aliens, the more you control all of the people.”
― Noam Chomsky

Posting Content © 2024 TC Talks Holdings LP.

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Rate This
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Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by Rate This » Tue May 05, 2020 10:15 am

TC Talks wrote:
Tue May 05, 2020 7:56 am
I heard that Bill Gates was doing this but it's pretty incredible to read about it.

https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-ga ... rus-2020-4
"Because our foundation has such deep expertise in infectious diseases, we've thought about the epidemic, we did fund some things to be more prepared, like a vaccine effort," Gates said. "Our early money can accelerate things."

Gates said the top seven vaccine candidates would be picked, and then building manufacturing capacity would be built for them. "Even though we'll end up picking at most two of them, we're going to fund factories for all seven, just so that we don't waste time in serially saying, 'OK, which vaccine works?' and then building the factory," he said.

Gates said that simultaneously testing and building manufacturing capacity is essential to the quick development of a vaccine, which Gates thinks could take about 18 months.
That’s pretty incredible...



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UP906
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Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by UP906 » Tue May 05, 2020 1:51 pm

France says they had it as early as December.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/04/health/f ... index.html


So... Considering how contagious this particular bug is, I think that it's safe to say that it was circulating in North America long before any official acknowledgment.

Antibody testing is the key to getting a better understanding as to the scope of the outbreak as well as Case Fatality Rates that are closer to the truth.


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