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COVID-19 Science discussion

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TC Talks
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COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by TC Talks » Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:47 pm

There have been a few good articles that help dissect the virus that hit today. As more good reading comes forward, please share them. Please keep this to data driven articles.
The coronavirus has infected far more people in the United States than testing has shown so far, and stringent measures to limit social contact in parts of the country not yet seeing many cases are needed to significantly stem the tide of illness and death in the coming months.

Those are the conclusions of Columbia University researchers who used a New York Times database of known cases and Census Bureau transportation data to model how the outbreak could evolve based on what is known about the virus. The estimates are inherently uncertain, and they could change as America adopts unprecedented measures to control the outbreak.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... e=Homepage


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Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by Turkeytop » Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:50 pm

Thanks for posting that. It's more helpful than the mindless bickering about the subject.


.Florida man breaks into jail to hang with friends

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Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by TC Talks » Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:52 pm

Great article about how the virus spreads in the body... It is a bit stark but accurate. This is what is happening in Italy.
How the Coronavirus Could Take Over Your Body (Before You Ever Feel It)By Jeff Wise
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/03 ... WKTjOXUbV0


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Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by TC Talks » Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:58 am

The tests show that when the virus is carried by the droplets released when someone coughs or sneezes, it remains viable, or able to still infect people, in aerosols for at least three hours.

On plastic and stainless steel, viable virus could be detected after three days. On cardboard, the virus was not viable after 24 hours. On copper, it took 4 hours for the virus to become inactivated.

In terms of half-life, the research team found that it takes about 66 minutes for half the virus particles to lose function if they are in an aerosol droplet.

That means that after another hour and six minutes, three quarters of the virus particles will be essentially inactivated but 25% will still be viable.

The amount of viable virus at the end of the third hour will be down to 12.5%, according to the research led by Neeltje van Doremalen of the NIAID’s Montana facility at Rocky Mountain Laboratories.

On stainless steel, it takes 5 hours 38 minutes for half of the virus particles to become inactive. On plastic, the half-life is 6 hours 49 minutes, researchers found.

The shortest survival time was on copper, where half the virus became inactivated within 46 minutes
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN2143QP


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Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by TC Talks » Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:59 am

Here is the most accurate tracker I have found...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


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Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by TC Talks » Sun Mar 22, 2020 1:56 pm

Great discussion about finding antibodies...
Arturo Casadevall, chair of the Department of Molecular Microbiology and Immunology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, is helping organize a national effort to use antibodies from recovered COVID-19 patients for protection and treatments. In a March 13 Journal of Clinical Investigation article, Casadevall and Liise-anne Pirofski of the Albert Einstein College of Medicine proposed the stop-gap measure of using plasma (serum) from the blood of survivors until a vaccine and antiviral medications are available.
https://www.globalhealthnow.org/2020-03 ... -are-ready


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km1125
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Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by km1125 » Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:40 pm

Thought this was an interesting site. It gives you levers to use to model different scenarios of containment or growth:


Epidemic Calculator
https://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html



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Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by TC Talks » Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:59 pm

Cool, let me figure the parameters.


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Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by TC Talks » Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:20 am

Here's a great discussion about repurposing existing drugs...
To infect a lung cell, the coronavirus must insert its genes, co-opting the cell’s on genetic machinery. The cell begins to produce viral proteins, which are used to produce millions of new viruses.

Each of those viral proteins must be able to latch onto the necessary human proteins for the process to work.

In the new study, the scientists investigated 26 of the coronavirus’s 29 genes, which direct production of the viral proteins. The researchers found 332 human proteins targeted by the coronavirus.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/22/scie ... e=Homepage


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Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by TC Talks » Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:23 am

km1125 wrote:
Sun Mar 22, 2020 3:40 pm
Thought this was an interesting site. It gives you levers to use to model different scenarios of containment or growth:
Epidemic Calculator
https://gabgoh.github.io/COVID/index.html
I found one that had the parameters loaded for you...
https://covidactnow.org/state/MI


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Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by TC Talks » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:22 pm

This looks at a side by side comparison to Italy's measures and results vs the US response.
The US passed the 13,000 confirmed case mark on March 19. Italy locked down the northern half of the country on the day it reached 13,000 cases and extended the lockdown to the southern half one day later.
Image
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020 ... mHKy_BHM-g


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Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by TC Talks » Mon Mar 23, 2020 8:40 pm

One of the earlier articles discusses this idea, they are now testing it in NYC...
Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced the plans during a news briefing Monday. The treatment, known as convalescent plasma, dates back centuries and was used during the flu epidemic of 1918 — in an era before modern vaccines and antiviral drugs.

Some experts say the treatment, although somewhat primitive, might be the best hope for combating the coronavirus until more sophisticated therapies can be developed, which could take several months.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-c ... d-n1167136


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Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by TC Talks » Tue Mar 24, 2020 10:00 pm

Here is one of the world's most knowledgeable scientists on Viral Epidemics... And to the skeptics, he doesn't care about ratings.
As of March 20, more than 8,700 people worldwide had died of COVID-19, the disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Caltech trustee David Ho (BS '74) of the Aaron Diamond AIDS Research Center, Columbia University, says that this is just the tip of the iceberg. Ho, an expert on viral epidemics, has spent decades researching HIV/AIDS, having begun his career in Los Angeles, "ground zero" of the first outbreak, in the early 1980s. On March 18, Ho sat down with members of the Caltech community to discuss the novel coronavirus and the future of our society in the light of this global pandemic.
https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/tip- ... t-covid-19


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km1125
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Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by km1125 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:20 am

In India, they are implementing a practice to have all medical practitioners prescribed Hydroxychloroquine for prophylactic use. The document I saw does not mention anything about requiring some type of zinc with it, which confuses me (I thought they both had to be taken to be effective). They are still requiring full PPE, so it is not considered any type of guarantee at all, just one more preventative step.

If they actually have scientific evidence this is a benefit, this could be a H*** game-changer.



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Re: COVID-19 Science discussion

Post by TC Talks » Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:47 am

Do you have an article? This is interesting, but it seems that it's being rebuffed...

https://www.mohfw.gov.in/pdf/Advisoryon ... ection.pdf


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