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Re: Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:20 pm
by bmw
MWmetalhead wrote: ↑Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:29 pm
These dopey forecasters almost never take into account the forecast models' inherent bias!!! Rather incredible, ain't it?
And you're absolutely right - the models need to be reprogrammed.
...and then making it even worse, and I've seen this time and again, rather than admit they got it wrong and adjusting the track, they stubbornly stick with the older projections. This just came out 9 minutes ago. I'm no meteorologist and even I can draw a more accurate cone than this. I overlayed mine in yellow/black over the joke of a map they just issued.
Re: Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:39 am
by bmw
Gotta tip my hat to you MW - this morning's GFS model run shows a COMPLETE Florida miss - not even the edge of the storm is being shown to hit the state, let alone the eyewall.
I'm still amused at how slow the NHC is to react to this continued eastward movement in track. The new advisory looks EXACTLY like the one I drew above, except now it should be shifted even FURTHER east.
Re: Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Sat Aug 31, 2019 2:38 pm
by Bryce
bmw wrote: ↑Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:39 am
Gotta tip my hat to you MW - this morning's GFS model run shows a COMPLETE Florida miss - not even the edge of the storm is being shown to hit the state, let alone the eyewall.
I'm still amused at how slow the NHC is to react to this continued eastward movement in track. The new advisory looks EXACTLY like the one I drew above, except now it should be shifted even FURTHER east.
Hit the nail on the head he did!
Re: Hurricane Dorian
Posted: Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:48 am
by MWmetalhead
I remain confident in my forecast. Perhaps the storm will get within 100 miles of the Florida coast, but I think none of Florida will see hurricane force gusts. I also think rainfall totals will be nothing extraordinary in Florida.
The stall and wobble are happening now. What little movement has occurred over the past couple hours is to the NNW.