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Hurricane Dorian

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bmw
Posts: 1243
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian

Post by bmw » Fri Aug 30, 2019 8:20 pm

MWmetalhead wrote:
Fri Aug 30, 2019 7:29 pm
These dopey forecasters almost never take into account the forecast models' inherent bias!!! Rather incredible, ain't it?

And you're absolutely right - the models need to be reprogrammed.
...and then making it even worse, and I've seen this time and again, rather than admit they got it wrong and adjusting the track, they stubbornly stick with the older projections. This just came out 9 minutes ago. I'm no meteorologist and even I can draw a more accurate cone than this. I overlayed mine in yellow/black over the joke of a map they just issued.

Image



bmw
Posts: 1243
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 1:02 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian

Post by bmw » Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:39 am

Gotta tip my hat to you MW - this morning's GFS model run shows a COMPLETE Florida miss - not even the edge of the storm is being shown to hit the state, let alone the eyewall.

I'm still amused at how slow the NHC is to react to this continued eastward movement in track. The new advisory looks EXACTLY like the one I drew above, except now it should be shifted even FURTHER east.



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Bryce
Posts: 2705
Joined: Thu Jan 03, 2008 12:04 pm

Re: Hurricane Dorian

Post by Bryce » Sat Aug 31, 2019 2:38 pm

bmw wrote:
Sat Aug 31, 2019 8:39 am
Gotta tip my hat to you MW - this morning's GFS model run shows a COMPLETE Florida miss - not even the edge of the storm is being shown to hit the state, let alone the eyewall.

I'm still amused at how slow the NHC is to react to this continued eastward movement in track. The new advisory looks EXACTLY like the one I drew above, except now it should be shifted even FURTHER east.
Hit the nail on the head he did!

Image


Cain killed Abel with a rock. God blamed Cain, NOT the rock.

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MWmetalhead
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Posts: 5036
Joined: Sun Oct 31, 2004 11:23 am

Re: Hurricane Dorian

Post by MWmetalhead » Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:48 am

I remain confident in my forecast. Perhaps the storm will get within 100 miles of the Florida coast, but I think none of Florida will see hurricane force gusts. I also think rainfall totals will be nothing extraordinary in Florida.

The stall and wobble are happening now. What little movement has occurred over the past couple hours is to the NNW.


Greta Thunberg is a snot nosed brat who needs to STFU.

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